EUR/USD forecast: upside limited? – Commerzbank and Danske Bank

EUR/USD has come under increasing selling pressure following the opening bell in Euroland, with gains so far capped in the low-1.1300s for the time being.

Arne Rasmussen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, argued “the ECB appears to have left the currency war and we continue to see a strong case for EUR/USD range-trading in the coming months. With less support to USD from relative rates, the fair range has probably shifted higher. Our short-term financial models signal thatEUR/USD is currently overbought, implying a short-term fair value at 1.0940”.

In addition, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair “is through the seven month resistance line at 1.1308 and is approaching the February high at 1.1377, we look for the market to now struggle. We note the 13 count on the 240 minute chart and if not already done so we would tighten stops on longs/exit. Above here lie the September and October highs at 1.1460/95”.

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