USD/JPY: 50% Equilibrium; EUR/USD: Monthly Shooting Star - SocGen

USD/JPY: 50% Equilibrium; EUR/USD: Monthly Shooting Star - SocGen

29 February 2016, 18:48
Vasilii Apostolidi
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USD/JPY has achieved our advocated target for rebound at 114 which corresponds with the down sloping channel limit and the 76.4% retracement from mid- February highs.

USD/JPY confirmed a multi month H&S and is undergoing a retracement. Potential for the pattern is located at 106, also the 38.2% retracement of 2012- 2015 up move.

Daily indicator is still below the equilibrium level of 50% which suggests ongoing recovery is still corrective in nature. Neckline of the pattern at 116 will remain a key resistance.

Having faced resistance at the upper limit of a daily ascending channel, EUR/USD is likely to form a shooting star this month. The pair violated the aforementioned channel support (1.10/1.1060) which is a signal that the rebound since December may have run its course. Daily RSI has already breached a similar trend support suggesting possibility of further correction.

The pair is currently probing a weekly descending trend, however rebound, if any, should be contained at immediate resistance of 1.10/1.1060.

A test of lows formed early February at 1.08 looks more likely. This will confirm if a revisit of last November trough at 1.0570/1.05 takes shape.

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