First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
■ with regard to the forecast for EUR/USD, it came 100 per cent true. As predicted, the pair remained in a sideways trend until midweek, then, following the speech of the Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen, it broke through the resistance 1.1250 and rose to the 1.1350 level. After completing this task, the pair retraced back to the 1.1250 level, turning it from resistance to support;
■ speaking of GBP/USD, the forecast for this pair suggested that it would move in a horizontal channel 1.4400 ÷ 1.4545 for the whole week, what actually happened - the pair stayed between the 1.4380 support and the 1.4560 resistance for all the five days;
■ but as for USD/JPY it was impossible to make an intelligible forecast - expert opinions were divided almost equally. The truth turned out to be with those who, together with indicators, spoke about the continuation of its dizzying nosedive. In two weeks’ time the pair fell from the height of 121.70 to the bottom of 111.00, i.e. more than 1000p, reaching the level of October 2014;
■ analysts were at a loss last week as far as the future of USD/CHF was concerned. As for the graphical analysis, its prediction came true only partially. As expected, at the beginning of the week the pair approached the 0.9980 level, then went downstairs and quickly reached the 0.9800 support zone. Then, instead of rebounding, it moved further south, bottomed at 0.9660, and only then returned to the level of 0.9800.
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Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made basing on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
■ if we talk about the forecast for EUR/USD, some 65% of experts and indicators on the D1 talk about the continuation of the uptrend. At the same time graphical analysis on the D1, shows that the pair can reach a height of 1.1400 during the week, and only then, it will move down. As for the remaining 35% of analysts and graphical analysis on H1 and H4, they are inclined to expect the fall of the pair in the next five days. Graphical analysis shows that the pair can hold on to the side corridor 1.1225 ÷ 1.1320 for the first couple of days, and then travel to the south - to the first support 1.1150 and then even lower - to the zone of 1.1030;
■ with regard to the future of GBP/USD, the graphical analysis suggests that at first the pair rebounds to the support 1.4365, and then returns to the upward trend that started in the last decade of January. The goal is 1.4670. Both 60 per cent analysts and indicators on H1, H4 and D1 agree with such a scenario. In a longer term, most experts are inclined to think that the pair should again try the bottom at 1.4100;
■ it is clear that after the collapse, shown by USD/JPY during the last two weeks, the indicators have not recovered yet. As far as most experts and graphical analysis on the N4 are concerned, to their view, the pair will continue to rebound up to the resistance zone of 115.60;
■ but as for the future of USD/CHF, opinions are divided almost evenly: 40% of the experts stand for upward movement, 35% vote for the fall of the pair and 25% - for a sideways trend. A similar pattern is observed with the indicators: on H1, they confidently vote for growth, on the D1 - for the fall, and in the middle - on H4 - they take a compromise position, speaking of neutral movement of the pair. As for the graphical analysis, it talks about the continuation of the uptrend. The channel support line passes through the points of 0.9660 and 0.9720 on the four-hour chart, the resistance line passes through 0.9755 and 0.9810.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
