Analytics & Forecasts

Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB

2 February 2016, 11:15
Vasilii Apostolidi
Vasilii Apostolidi
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EUR/USD: Neutral: Only daily closing below 1.0775/80 would indicate start of bearish phase.

As pointed out yesterday, we were not convinced the sharp drop last Friday is the start of a sustained down-move. The rapid recovery yesterday reinforces our current neutral view. EUR/USD rebounded strongly without testing the recent low of 1.0775/80 (low of 1.0812).

The recovery appears to have scope to extend higher but at this stage, any further upmove is expected to struggle near 1.0940. Only a daily closing below 1.0775 would indicate the start of bearish phase.

GBP/USD: Neutral: Rebound has scope to extend to 1.4565 next.

While we still maintain a neutral outlook for this pair, the corrective rebound is gaining momentum rapidly and the current up-move has scope to extend higher to test the major 1.4565 resistance.

Strong support is at 1.4240 and last Friday’s low of 1.4150 should not be threatened, at least not in the next few days.

AUD/USD: Neutral: Daily closing above 0.7110 would indicate start of a sustained up-move.

AUD/USD closed exactly at 0.7110 yesterday and we are not sure whether the current short-term strength could extend higher in a sustained manner. 

For now, we prefer to remain neutral but will shift to a bullish stance if there is a daily closing clearly above 0.7110.

NZD/USD: Neutral: Too early to expect a sustained rally.

NZD/USD edged above the major 0.6555 resistance yesterday with a high of 0.6558. While momentum is improving, it is too early to expect a sustained up-move. Even a clear break above 0.6555 is expected to encounter very strong resistance near 0.6605/10.

That said, the short-term undertone is clearly positive and this pair is expected to remain underpinned in the next few days.

USD/JPY: Bullish: Those who are long to take partial profit at 122.00.

While we reiterated our bullish USD/JPY view last Thursday, the extent and the pace of the rally was unexpected. On a shorter-term note, the rally is obviously overbought and any further USD/JPY gains will likely be at a slower pace.

We are seeing a strong resistance at 122.00 and those who are long should take some partial profit at this level.

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