Trade Ideas For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD - UBS
The following are UBS' latest short-term (mostly intraday) trading strategies for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
EUR/USD: The pair is back in the range we have seen since the beginning of the year. We expect EURUSD to drop at some point and will look for levels to go short, but would rather not be involved on this side of 1.0900. EURUSD should find some buyers below 1.0850, as it had struggled to get through this level last week. Even if that goes, the pair should have some support around 1.0803, the NFP low.
GBP/USD: Cable traded through the 76.4% retracement level at 1.4374 for the third time on Friday. This time it didn't rebound and extended losses to 1.4250, not far from the 2010 low at 1.4235. We expect some minor intraday support ahead of 1.4235 but prefer to sell rallies back toward 1.4300/20 with stops above 1.4340, targeting a break of 1.4235.
AUD/USD: rallied 100 pips to 0.6930 before drifting back lower. With the markets remaining extremely nervous, we still prefer short AUDUSD and would fade intraday rallies above 0.6900 with tight stops above 0.6950.
NZD/USD: has a downtrend line around 0.6525, where a break could trigger some correction. We would stick to shorts for now but with a tight stop above 0.6525, targeting a retest of last year's low of 0.6250.
USD/CAD: gapped up to 1.4650 on the open as the US lifted sanctions on non-American buying oil from Iran over the weekend but has been gradually drifting lower since. We can't remain bullish at current levels and see rising risk of a correction. Oil is off 25% since the start of the year; the Iran news could well be sell the rumours buy the fact. Sell intraday rallies in USDCAD to 1.4600 with a tight stop above the Asian highs, targeting 1.4200.
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