Turkey: Q3 GDP data likely to show deceleration below the 2.7% mark - TDS
10 December 2015, 08:25
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Research Team at TDS, suggests that today’s highlight is the Turkey’s Q3
GDP data that is likely to show a deceleration from 3.8% Y/Y recorded
in Q2.
Key Quotes
“On a sequential basis, the consensus looks for 1.3% Q/Q SWDA, but this forecast is often inaccurate as only a few economists estimate it. Our models show that a downside surprise is likely today. Additionally, data for the second quarter surprised to the upside, which increases the likelihood of a pullback. In annual terms, we highlight the possibility of GDP growth slowing below the 2.7% mark expected today the slowing industry and trade sectors.”
“Markets will also pay attention to the October current account data, expected to print a modest deficit of –USD0.2bn, down from a surplus of USD0.1bn in the prior month, when Turkey recorded its first monthly C/A surplus since 2009. While the pullback should be modest in October, the ongoing deterioration in domestic demand should reflect in the better trade data, but also provides additional evidence that downside risks to growth are larger than upside risks in the remainder of the year.”
Key Quotes
“On a sequential basis, the consensus looks for 1.3% Q/Q SWDA, but this forecast is often inaccurate as only a few economists estimate it. Our models show that a downside surprise is likely today. Additionally, data for the second quarter surprised to the upside, which increases the likelihood of a pullback. In annual terms, we highlight the possibility of GDP growth slowing below the 2.7% mark expected today the slowing industry and trade sectors.”
“Markets will also pay attention to the October current account data, expected to print a modest deficit of –USD0.2bn, down from a surplus of USD0.1bn in the prior month, when Turkey recorded its first monthly C/A surplus since 2009. While the pullback should be modest in October, the ongoing deterioration in domestic demand should reflect in the better trade data, but also provides additional evidence that downside risks to growth are larger than upside risks in the remainder of the year.”
