The USD has tended to rally against major currencies heading into the
start of a Fed tightening cycle, but weaken following the first rate
hike.
However, the pattern is a lot more varied against Asian currencies. This suggests caution in expecting respite for Asian currencies should the FOMC hike rates at their 15-16 December meeting.
With the Fed hiking at a time when EM Asia growth is slowing, this could see capital outflows from Asia, leading to further depreciation pressure on Asian currencies.
Historically, INR and SGD have been the most resilient following the first Fed rate hike in a tightening cycle, while TWD has a tendency to weaken. However, we do not see SGD being as resilient this time, given the domestic growth and inflation outlook. IDR could be vulnerable, especially if BI cuts rates following the Fed meeting."
However, the pattern is a lot more varied against Asian currencies. This suggests caution in expecting respite for Asian currencies should the FOMC hike rates at their 15-16 December meeting.
With the Fed hiking at a time when EM Asia growth is slowing, this could see capital outflows from Asia, leading to further depreciation pressure on Asian currencies.
Historically, INR and SGD have been the most resilient following the first Fed rate hike in a tightening cycle, while TWD has a tendency to weaken. However, we do not see SGD being as resilient this time, given the domestic growth and inflation outlook. IDR could be vulnerable, especially if BI cuts rates following the Fed meeting."
