After the weeks of the financial tension around the world, after Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi made their respective declarations we have again what we have had since March, a 'hope' for an increase in the interest rates from the Federal Reserve of USA, and a 'creepy' european situation that doesn't seem to get any better.
This leaves me two impressions: About the Fed is too dependant on the market, instead of the data they are receiving, which is a vicious cicle, because market decitions and comments create market circumstances, if Fed is basing its decitions this way for a long time, we should get used to the 0% interest rate we have on most of the markets.
The European Central bank have its issues and its willing to wait on Fed desition to increase interest rates, with the expected results of a huge benefits on european exportations and injection of cash flows aimed at investments.
This two impressions lead me to a conclussion that the market can crash before the fed raise interest rates, if the conditions are not given according to the Fed, then the ECB will be forced to increase its QE program, China will need to adjust again their rate and tax and consequently it will have affections on the american economy, too late for Fed to raise interest rates, so after that, Which would be the measures taken in order to solve this crisis?
Fortunately, I don't expect this to happen but until last quarter of 2016, and I'm pretty sure the Fed will make its first move on December at last.
So from now on we should follow up the US data very closely as well as China's, Europe can manage the problem they have more easily than the others, in the meantime Japan might be a good place to invest.
