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Bank of America Merrill Lynch is dispalling the doubts about the ability of the USD to rally further and about the EURUSD to resume the bearish market condition. Strong USD skeptics are providing some arguments that USD can not be more stronger than now:
- The Fed do not like stronger USD for rate hike.
- EU data was improved because of ECB QE.
- Long-term movement for EURUSD pair is estimated to be 1.25 anyway soon or later.
Yes, positive Eurozone data surprises, and negative US data surprises, but skeptics are missing 2 additional main arguments:
-
"According to our estimates from a production
function, US total factor productivity (TFP) has been growing the
fastest in the G10 group. In contrast, TFP growth has been negative in
the Eurozone."
- "The Eurozone economy has by far the most negative output gap in the G10 group."
Thus, according to BofA Merrill, the USD will become more stronger compare with EUR and we will see the price as 1.04/1.05 by the end of this year anyway.