The Danske Bank Research Team previews today’s Eurozone and US data releases.
Key Quotes
“Euro PMI manufacturing is due for release and the flash estimates in the periphery will attract most attention. The positive trend in Spanish manufacturing PMI has continued and the index is set to increase in February. The Italian manufacturing PMI, on the other hand, has been on a downward trend since the beginning of Q2 14 and lack of structural reforms continues to be a headwind.”
“In the US we expect the ISM manufacturing to fall slightly in January as regional PMIs have on average been weak. In December the index also fell, after overshooting real manufacturing production growth for a long period. However, a small decrease in January should still be consistent with decent activity in the manufacturing industry.”
“The US PCE deflator should fall further to 0.7% y/y, which is the lowest rate of change since 2009. The decline is driven by the drop in the oil price and PCE core is expected to remain unchanged at 1.4% y/y.”
“In contrast to the ECB, the Fed should see through the temporary negative impact on inflation from the drop in the oil price.”
Key Quotes
“Euro PMI manufacturing is due for release and the flash estimates in the periphery will attract most attention. The positive trend in Spanish manufacturing PMI has continued and the index is set to increase in February. The Italian manufacturing PMI, on the other hand, has been on a downward trend since the beginning of Q2 14 and lack of structural reforms continues to be a headwind.”
“In the US we expect the ISM manufacturing to fall slightly in January as regional PMIs have on average been weak. In December the index also fell, after overshooting real manufacturing production growth for a long period. However, a small decrease in January should still be consistent with decent activity in the manufacturing industry.”
“The US PCE deflator should fall further to 0.7% y/y, which is the lowest rate of change since 2009. The decline is driven by the drop in the oil price and PCE core is expected to remain unchanged at 1.4% y/y.”
“In contrast to the ECB, the Fed should see through the temporary negative impact on inflation from the drop in the oil price.”
