First trader should look for supply and Demand to predict the price
In Currency Supply is considered from Economic Indicators M0 & M1 Money supply rising or droping.
Currency Demand when Central banks comments to hike interest rates or rising inflation etc.
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In Commodities ,
Gold supply is considered production from various gold mines,silver mines etc
Gold Demand when economy of large gold consumers rises like china economy.
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Crude oil supply is considered production from largetest oil producers.
Crude oil demand ,when economy starts to rise of major countries.