Commodities in November continued to remain under pressure. The first is, of course, refers to the oil. News that a leading player in OPEC - Saudi Arabia - lowered the official price of oil to the United States, caused by the black gold quotes at the beginning of next month, a powerful blow from which they never recovered until now. During November futures for Brent crude updated four-year low below $ 77. The subsequent recovery in the area of $ 80 a barrel a little comforting: the price of Brent remains nearly 30% below the closing levels of the previous year.
Saudi Arabia's decision to cut prices, accompanied by the same refusal to reduce the volume of production was seen by some players as an act of some kind of "price war." Were especially concerned about the Latin American members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - Venezuela and Ecuador, which, apparently, was not convinced by assurances from Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi that Saudi Arabia does not conduct any "wars" and only wants to stabilize the market and prices.
This week, on Thursday, November 27, held in Vienna traditional OPEC conference. State budget cartel members are very sensitive to the price situation in the market of hydrocarbons, so that a number of countries at this meeting certainly will lobby the idea of reducing catch limits within the Organization. However, this decision remains in doubt. Moreover, even if the limits are reduced, the reduction is unlikely to be as ambitious to restore oil prices above $ 90 a barrel.
Remain doubtful chances of significant recovery and other commodity assets - gold. However, all three of the last week of November, the yellow metal finished in positive territory, gradually recovering from the reached earlier this month for a minimum of four and a half year high near $ 1,132 per ounce. He even managed to test key resistance - the level of $ 1,200. But the fundamental basis for a significant upward movement until it reviewed: the demand for physical gold from the main consumers - China and India - is still quite sluggish, and the strengthening of the US dollar in terms of low inflation and impending rate hike puts extra pressure on the stock of precious metals.
In my opinion, this week, gold could be supported in the run-up to Sunday November 30 the Swiss referendum - in fact in the case of a positive outcome of the plebiscite Swiss central bank will be required to increase the proportion of gold in the composition of its reserves from 8% to 20%. However, recent polls show that the proponents of this idea are in the minority and, moreover, their number is reduced. So that the growth of the yellow metal is likely to be short-lived.
I think that the December decline in gold resumes. Still think probable reduction in the area of $ 1,100 per troy ounce by the end of this year. To the author Sergey Glushkov
