Crude Oil forecast for the week of June 30, 2014, Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude market initially gapped higher at the open of the week, but old backwards and fell down to the $105 level. The $105 level offered enough support to keep the market afloat, and being a large, round, psychologically significant number, it makes sense that the buyers would step in there. The real question is whether or not the market can sustain that support long enough to keep going higher. We do believe it will, but we also look at this market as being supported all the way down to roughly the $103.50 level, and the entire area between there in the $105 handle as being a “zone of support.” Because of this, we are looking for some type of supportive candle in that general area in order to start going long. The market is far too aggressively long at this point and well supported to short it, so going forward we are “buy only.”

Brent

The Brent market initially tried to rally during the course of the week, breaking above the $115 level. However, we found enough resistance of there to keep the market down, and formed a negative candle. However, we think that there is a massive amount of support below, so this market should find plenty of support. We will be looking for supportive weekly candles in order to take advantage of an obvious uptrend, and we also recognize that the ascending triangle that broke out above the $110 level is still a major factor in this marketplace.

There are a couple different areas that we are particularly interested in, $112 being the first one, and the $110 level being the other. Any supportive candle around those areas will have is aggressively long, just as a break above the top of the high as that we have recently put in would have us buying. At this moment in time, we see no opportunity to sell this market and believe it will continue to go much higher. By the end of the summer, we would not be surprised see this market hit $120.