FOREX - Тенденции, прогнозы и следствия (Эпизод № 33: Январь 2014) Продолжение следует... - страница 64
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В фибке че нужно прописать, чтобы период показывало?
Илья, проще его сделать со значениями 25,50,75, 100 и т.д., нах эти 211 и т.д.?
умничка=) у него долг остался 6535 и 6602(не обязательный)
А так прокатит?
Илья, проще его сделать со значениями 25,50,75, 100 и т.д., нах эти 211 и т.д.?
Да что угодно можно прописать, любой период и уровни...
Лишь бы работало.
По зеландцу какие мысли?
Да что угодно можно прописать, любой период и уровни...
Лишь бы работало.
По зеландцу какие мысли?
8430
Илья, проще его сделать со значениями 25,50,75, 100 и т.д., нах эти 211 и т.д.?
А у мну без т.д. 25, 33, 50, 66, 75, 100.... как завещал великий и вечно живой...
Великий у нас один...
Better funding conditions but for the wrong reasons?
Although the euro failed to start 2014 on a strong note, it was a different story for periphery bonds. As of the European close on Friday Jan. 3, the spread between the 10-year papers of Spain and Italy over Germany had both narrowed to below 200bp, i.e. their 'sovereign risk premiums' are now back down to 2010 levels. Given the tightening has been accompanied by general euro resilience, it is a strong indication that external investors are returning to the market in search of carry. Current trends do not help downside EURUSD views, barring perhaps a 'hawkish' Fed shock. Nonetheless, even while the structural underpinnings of the 'improvement' may prove sustainable, whether they are acceptable - to the ECB and governments alike - is another matter.
Firstly, the current spread-euro virtual cycle itself will start to challenge the ECB's current outlook. Stronger external demand (i.e. the return of the marginal buyer) for periphery debt may allow governments to ease the demand destruction introduced by austerity. However, upside price momentum could be easily offset by stronger pass-through effects in the wake of the EUR's decent year-end run. As the broader improvement in the Eurozone's balance of payments is continuing regardless, the Eurozone might be looking at a 'twin surpluses' situation, which in most cases is not a welcome development. The capital flow 'rebalancing' the Eurozone requires is more internal in nature which discounts pass through, yet a broader push on this front remains politically contentious. Secondly, a reduction in sovereign premium in part indicates a reduction in banking risk premium - helped by Spain's exit of the bank bailout programme. Credibility issues aside, it is hard to escape the fact that much of the 'clean-up' is attributable to deleveraging: MFI lending in the Eurozone to non-financial corporations continues to collapse but the direct and indirect transmission is certainly into marginally better balance sheets, boosting sovereign bond performance accordingly.
To sum up, 'good news' for the euro and sovereign spreads still comes at a heavy cost to growth. Stronger export demand and gentler austerity will struggle to counter the structural internal devaluation in select countries. The ECB is always ready to act, but a mainstream political consensus favouring growth and 'healthy' rebalancing is elusive, and looks to remain so as the European elections - where populism thrives - approach.
Technical FX
EURUSD NEUTRAL Focus is on support at 1.3524, a break below this level would be a bearish development as it would confirm MACD's settlement below its zero line. Resistance is at 1.3673.
Source: UBS FX StrategyUSDJPY BULLISH The pair has been consolidating below the critical resistance at 105.75. Any further downside will be limited. Support is at 103.98 ahead of 103.09.
GBPUSD BULLISH Having posted new highs last week, the pair has seen a setback which should be limited to support at 1.6317. Resistance is at 1.6474 ahead of 1.6622.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The pair extended its recovery and is approaching resistance at 0.9078. A close above which would trigger further upside to 0.9197. Support is at 0.8989 ahead of 0.8908.
AUDUSD BEARISH While resistance holds at 0.9035, the pair remains vulnerable to break through 0.8821 and extend the bearish trend to 0.8545.
USDCAD BULLISH The pair has been consolidating within a broader bullish trend and downside should find support at 1.0582. Resistance is at 1.0678 ahead of 1.0738.
EURCHF NEUTRAL There is a strong trendline resistance at 1.2324. A break through which would open 1.2352. Support is at 1.2262 ahead of 1.2226.
EURGBP BEARISH With the MACD firmly below its zero line, there's potential for extension of the bearish trend. Support is at 0.8253, a break below which would expose 0.8160. Resistance is at 0.8346.
EURJPY BULLISH The recent setback is just a corrective phase within a bullish trend. Strong support lies at 140.16. Resistance is at 143.29 ahead of 145.69.
*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action