Key Currencies and Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart) - November 15, 2024
USD/JPY – Strong Sell
EUR/USD – Buy
AUD/USD – Strong Sell
NZD/USD – Strong Buy
GBP/USD – Strong Buy
XAU/USD – Strong Buy
United States (USD)
The U.S. dollar has strengthened against major currencies such as the euro (EUR), yen (JPY), and pound (GBP).
Recent data, including weekly initial jobless claims and October’s Producer Price Index (PPI), suggests economic resilience. Initial claims came in at 217,000, below expectations of 224,000 and previous week’s 221,000. The total number of jobless claims recipients fell from 1.884 million to 1.873 million. Despite the Federal Reserve's tightening policy, the labor market remains strong, showing some signs of cooling.
Additionally, PPI for October increased by +0.2% month-on-month (expected +0.2%), and +2.4% year-on-year (expected +2.3%). The core PPI increased by +0.3% month-on-month and +3.1% year-on-year. Inflationary pressures remain above the Fed’s target of 2%, with an upward trend. This could make a December rate cut less likely, and the pace of rate cuts in the coming year is expected to slow.
Eurozone (EUR)
The euro (EUR) is stronger against the yen (JPY), weaker against the U.S. dollar (USD), and mixed against the pound (GBP).
Eurozone GDP for Q3 came in at +0.4% quarter-on-quarter and +0.9% year-on-year, in line with market expectations. However, if the new U.S. administration imposes additional tariffs on imports, especially affecting the German economy, there is a risk that the growth across the Eurozone could slow down.
Eurozone industrial production fell by -2.0% month-on-month (expected -1.3%) and -2.8% year-on-year (expected -2.0%). Meanwhile, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos reaffirmed that the inflation rate is nearing the target of 2.0%, and expressed intentions to continue interest rate cuts.
United Kingdom (GBP)
The pound (GBP) is stronger against the yen (JPY), weaker against the U.S. dollar (USD), and mixed against the euro (EUR).
According to data from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), housing prices rose at the fastest pace in two years in October, with the index rising from 11.0 to 16.0 points. However, this data was collected before the budget announcement, and there are concerns it could influence the long-term expansion of the housing market. Specifically, rising bond yields and increasing expectations of rate hikes could constrain the housing market in the short term.
Japan (JPY)
The yen (JPY) is weaker against the U.S. dollar (USD), euro (EUR), and pound (GBP).
The preliminary Q3 GDP data, set to be released tomorrow, is expected to show a slowdown in economic growth, from +0.7% quarter-on-quarter to +0.2%, and from +2.9% year-on-year to +0.8%. This could increase the likelihood of the Bank of Japan maintaining its current monetary policy stance. Additionally, September’s industrial production is expected to remain weak at +1.4% month-on-month, continuing to highlight the softness in the domestic economy.
Australia (AUD)
The Australian dollar (AUD) is weaker against the euro (EUR) and U.S. dollar (USD), and mixed against the yen (JPY) and pound (GBP).
The employment data for October, released today, showed mixed results. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1%, but the overall increase in employment dropped sharply from 61,300 to just 15,900, with full-time employment falling from 48,800 to just 9,700. This is the slowest pace of recovery in the past seven months. As a result, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to hold off on any early rate cuts, as the labor market is not showing sufficient pressure to warrant such measures.
Oil (Crude)
Crude oil prices have risen again today. This is due to the official appointment of former U.S. Senator Marco Rubio as the new U.S. Secretary of State.
Rubio has indicated that sanctions on Iran may be expanded, which could restrict the supply of Iranian oil. Additionally, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease in stockpiles of 777,000 barrels, contrary to expectations of a 1 million barrel increase. A similar report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due today, with expectations of a 400,000 barrel increase, which may put pressure on energy prices.
