0
3
Flow-Driven End-of-Month Market, Numerous U.S. Economic Data Releases Today
This week has seen a market driven by the typical end-of-month flows. The dollar has been fluctuating daily without a clear direction, but the overall trend remains one of dollar weakness. For the dollar to regain momentum, clear results from U.S. economic indicators are needed, though the decisive U.S. employment data is scheduled for release next weekend.
However, today will see the release of numerous U.S. economic indicators. These include the revised Q2 2024 real GDP, preliminary wholesale inventories for July, initial jobless claims for the week of August 18-24, and pending home sales for July. The dollar may react sensitively to the extent of the GDP revision and the results of the initial jobless claims, which are closely watched as employment-related indicators. However, these are not expected to significantly alter the overall trend of dollar weakness.
There are also events related to Germany. The preliminary August Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released, and ECB Chief Economist Lane will participate in a discussion, while Bundesbank President Nagel is scheduled to give a speech. A rate cut at the September ECB meeting is considered a foregone conclusion, and even the hawkish President Nagel has acknowledged this. Market interest in Germany's inflation trends is expected to increase.
During New York trading hours, a $44 billion 7-year U.S. Treasury auction and a speech by Atlanta Fed President Bostic on the economic outlook are scheduled. Additionally, earnings reports from U.S. companies like Best Buy and Dell are expected, with particular attention on the stock movements of semiconductor giant Nvidia.
I plan to continue focusing on selling the U.S. dollar. Key moments to watch for potential entry opportunities will be around the releases of the U.S. real GDP and initial jobless claims, and the pending home sales index. If opportunities arise during these times, I plan to take advantage of them.
