Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 154

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.02 11:40

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Construction PMI and 26 pips price movement

2016-03-02 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Construction PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Construction PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the construction industry.

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"The  headline  seasonally  adjusted Markit/CIPS  UK Construction Purchasing  Managers’  Index® (PMI®) registered  54.2  in  February,  down  from  55.0 in January and the lowest since April 2015. Although still  above  the  50.0  value  that  separates  expansion from contraction, the latest reading pointed to one of the  weakest  rises  in  construction  output  seen  over the past two-and-a-half years."

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GBPUSD M5: 26 pips price movement by UK Construction PMI news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.02 16:53

Crude Oil Intra-Day Fundamentals: price is testing 36.07 support level by U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 10.4M barrels from the previous week

2016-03-02 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 10.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 518.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 3.7 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 9.9 million barrels last week."

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Crude Oil M5 price movement by U.S. commercial crude oil inventories news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.03 08:44

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: Bearish Ranging.

  • "EUR moved to a low of 1.0823 before rebounding to close almost unchanged for the day. Indicators continue to show sign of basing but any recovery is unlikely to move significantly above 1.0920."
  • "The overnight low of 1.0823 did not reach our partial profittaking level of 1.0810. While only a break above 1.0965 would indicate that the current bearish phase has ended, downward momentum is struggling and at this stage, a sustained down-move below 1.0810 appears unlikely."


The intra-day price (H4) broke 200 period SMA/100 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition. The price is started to be ranging within 1.0825 support level and 1.0880 resistance level.

  • If the price breaks 1.0825 support on close H4 bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If the price breaks 1.0880 resistance level on close H4 bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally will be started within the primary bearish condition up to 1.1067 bullish reversal target.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging bearish condition.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.03 10:52

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Services PMI and 39 pips range price movement

2016-03-03 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Services PMI]

  • past data is 55.6
  • forecast data is 55.1
  • actual data is 52.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

==========

"The headline figure for the survey is the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Services Business Activity Index, a single-figure measure designed to track changes in total UK services activity compared with one month previously. Readings above 50.0 signal growth of activity compared with the previous month, and below 50.0 contraction. The seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index fell to 52.7 in February, from 55.6 in January. This signalled the slowest rise in service sector activity since March 2013. Moreover, the Index was below its long-run trend level (since July 1996) of 55.2. Nevertheless, services output has risen continuously for 38 months, the second-longest sequence of expansion in the survey history."

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GBPUSD M5: 39 pips range price movement by UK Services PMI news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.01 16:21

Quick Technical Overview - S&P 500: 1,890 is important (adapted from the article)

H1 price is located to be above 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) in the bullish area of the chart: the secondary correction was started by the price for trying to break 1,928 support level to below for the secondary correction to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 1,962 resistance level so we may see the bullish trend to be continuing.
  • If price will break 1,890 support so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the primary ebarish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1,9621,928
N/A
1,890


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1,890 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1,962 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: correction

SUMMARY : correction

TREND : primary bullish

This technical analysis was two days ago and I want to make some short update of the situation about.

H1 price broke 1,962 resistance to above together with 1,977 resistance level. For now - the price is testing 1,983 for the bullish trend to be continuing:


D1 price is on local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish condition: the priceis breaking 1,977 level to above, and if this level will be broken on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish market condition will be started up to 2,038 level as the next bullish target to re-enter. And 2,100 level is the one for the strong bullish trend to be started (if the price breaks it to above for example):


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.03 16:00

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Jobless Claims and 22 pips range price movement

2016-03-03 13:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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"A day before the release of the closely watched monthly jobs report, the Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing that first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased in the week ended February 27th.

The report said initial jobless claims rose to 278,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 272,000."

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EURUSD M5: 22 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.03 17:21

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and 22 pips range price movement

2016-03-03 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 53.5
  • forecast data is 53.1
  • actual data is 53.4 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

==========

"The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI® registered 53.4 percent in February, 0.1 percentage point lower than the January reading of 53.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 57.8 percent, 3.9 percentage points higher than the January reading of 53.9 percent, reflecting growth for the 79th consecutive month at a faster rate.The headline figure for the survey is the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Services Business Activity Index, a single-figure measure designed to track changes in total UK services activity compared with one month previously. Readings above 50.0 signal growth of activity compared with the previous month, and below 50.0 contraction. The seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index fell to 52.7 in February, from 55.6 in January. This signalled the slowest rise in service sector activity since March 2013. Moreover, the Index was below its long-run trend level (since July 1996) of 55.2. Nevertheless, services output has risen continuously for 38 months, the second-longest sequence of expansion in the survey history."


==========

USD/JPY M5: 22 pips range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.04 09:37

Trading News Events: Non-Farm Employment Change (based on the article)

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

With the U.S. economy approaching ‘full-employment,’ signs of sticky wage growth may encourage the FOMC to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months as Chair Janet Yellen remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon.

Nevertheless, waning business confidence accompanied by fears of a slowing recovery may drag on hiring, and a dismal NFP report may produce increased headwinds for the dollar as market participants push out bets for the next Fed rate-hike.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Climbs 195K+ Accompanied by Sticky Wage Growth

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: U.S Employment Report Falls Short of Market Expectations
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily


  • EUR/USD may continue to consolidate within the 2015 range following the failed run at the October high (1.1494), but the pair stands at risk of facing near-term headwinds as market participants anticipate the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement more non-standard measures at the March 10 interest rate decision.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (50% retracement) to 1.1520 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)
Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month
EURUSD M5: 133 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news event:





 

Ahead of NFP: levels for EUR/USD

EUR/USD: rally to possible bullish reversal. This pair on the bearish market condition with the secondary bear market rally: the price is located near and below 200 period SMA inside ascending triangle pattern to be formed for the possible bearish reversal. RSI indicator is estimating the rally to be continuing with the secondary ranging condition.

  • if the price breaks 1.1067 resistance so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started;
  • if the price breaks 1.0825 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the channel.


Resistance
Support
1.0973
1.0853
1.1067
1.0825
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.04 14:50

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Non-Farm Employment Change and 68 pips price movement

2016-03-04 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 172K
  • forecast data is 195K
  • actual data is 242K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 242,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in health care and social assistance, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and private educational services. Job losses continued in mining."

==========

EURUSD M5: 68 pips price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news event :



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