Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 149

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.12 08:32

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German GDP and 11 pips price movement


2016-02-12 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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  • "The German economy continued its moderate growth at the end of 2015. In the fourth quarter of 2015, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.3% on the previous quarter after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. The economic situation in Germany in 2015 was characterised by solid and steady growth (+0.3% in the third and fourth quarter each and +0.4% in each of the first two quarters). The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that this results in a +1.7% average increase (calendar-adjusted: +1.4%) for the whole year of 2015. The provisional result released in January has largely been confirmed."
  • "In a year-on-year comparison, economic growth accelerated since summer when measured by the unadjusted figures. The price-adjusted GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 rose by +2.1%, following increases of +1.7% in the third quarter of 2015 and of +1.6% in the second quarter of 2015. However, in the last quarter of 2015 there were two working days more than a year earlier, which produced an above-average calendar effect." Consequently, the calendar-adjusted increase (+1.3%) was slightly smaller than in the third (+1.7%) and second quarter (+1.6%).
  • "The statistical carry-over effect at the end of 2015 is +0.4%. This is the rate of GDP change which would be obtained for 2016 if the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP remained at the level of the fourth quarter of 2015 for all quarters of 2016."

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EURUSD M5: 11 pips price movement by German GDP news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.12 11:59

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Euro-Zone GDP and 17 pips price movement


2016-02-12 10:00 GMT | [EUR - Euro-Zone GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Euro-Zone GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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"Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.3% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 during the fourth quarter of 2015, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the third quarter of 2015, GDP grew by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively."

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EURUSD M5: 17 pips price movement by Euro-Zone GDP news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.12 14:43

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Advance Retail Sales and 35 pips price movement

2016-02-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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EURUSD M5: 35 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event :



 

Quick Technical Overview - S&P 500: daily ranging bearish with the descending triangle pattern to be formed

Daily price is located below 200-day SMA and 100-day SMa area for the bearish market condition. The price is ranging within 1,811 support and 1,935 resistance levels with the descending triangle pattern to be form for the bearish trend to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 1,935 resistance level so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started with 2.038 bullish reversal target.
  • If price will break 1,811 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1,9351,811
2.038N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1,811 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1,935 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish
 

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.14 10:00

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 14.02 - 21.02: daily ranging bullish near 1.1376 resistance

Daily price was on bullish breakout by breaking 1.1246 level: the price was bounced from 1.1376 with the secondary ranging condition and with ascending triangle pattern to be formed for the bullish trend to be continuing.

The price is started to be ranging within the following key support/resistance lines:

  • 1.1086 key support level located on the border between the secondary ranging and the secondary correction trend,
  • 1.1376 key resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area, and
  • 1.0881 key support level located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the daily chart.

Chinkou Span line is above the price for the ranging bullish condition, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging trend to be continuing.

If D1 price will break 1.1086 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction will be started.
If D1 price will break 1.0881 support level on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
If D1 price will break 1.1376 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1376 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1086 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish rally to the bullish reversal
Resistance
Support
1.13761.1086
N/A
1.0881



SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.14 18:11

Weekly Outlook for EUR/USD by Morgan Stanley (based on the article)


EUR/USD: Secondary correction to be started within the primary bullish market condition.

"Should the tactical rally we foresee occur, it would put pressure on EURUSD once again. This would likely ease Eurozone inflation expectations slightly but probably won’t prevent noise about potential ECB action in March. Remember, the correlation between EURUSD and equity markets remains strong and we expect the correlation to continue while there are outstanding FX hedged equity positions in the markets."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.14 18:14

Weekly Outlook for USD/JPY by Morgan Stanley (based on the article)


USD/JPY: Bearish trend to be continuing.

"We think the BoJ may try to use verbal intervention to stop the appreciation of the JPY. Domestic fund managers have seen their foreign holdings depreciate due to a combination of a stronger JPY and weaker global equity markets. This deterioration has occurred when holdings of foreign assets are at record highs, which could mean that stops are triggered and repatriation of holdings is forced. The BoJ attempted to push back against this by introducing negative rates, but failed. We believe the BoJ will act as a circuit breaker, stopping the JPY appreciating this week."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.14 18:18

Weekly Outlook for GBP/USD by Morgan Stanley (based on the article)


GBP/USD: Ranging bearish with symmetric triangle pattern to be broken to below with 1.4325 target.

"Any risk rally in equities or oil is likely to provide GBP with a boost. We don’t expect this to last long though, so continue to promote selling on rallies. The BoE remains dovish and the Brexit debate is in full swing in the press. The UK’s current account deficit makes the currency prone to weakness when inflows are reduced due to high market volatility. EURGBP this week broke previous highs, supporting the upside momentum in this pair."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.15 08:19

Technical Intra-day Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD. Bullish. Take partial profit at 1.1376.


"The current rally is showing signs of slowing and a short-term top appears to be imminent. However, confirmation is only upon a break below the stoploss at 1.1180. A break below this level could lead to a pullback towards the 1.1085 support. Those who are long should continue to book some partial profit at 1.1376."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.15 15:21

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speech and 17 pips price movement

2016-02-15 14:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech] = Hearing at the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee Introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Brussels, 15 February 2016.

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"In order to make the euro area more resilient, contributions from all policy areas are needed. The ECB is ready to do its part. As we announced at the end of our last monetary policy meeting in January, the Governing Council will review and possibly reconsider the monetary policy stance in early March. The focus of our deliberations will be twofold. First, we will examine the strength of the pass-through of low imported inflation to domestic wage and price formation and to inflation expectations. This will depend on the size and the persistence of the fall in oil and commodity prices and the incidence of second-round effects on domestic wages and prices. Second, in the light of the recent financial turmoil, we will analyse the state of transmission of our monetary impulses by the financial system and in particular by banks. If either of these two factors entail downward risks to price stability, we will not hesitate to act."

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EURUSD M5: 17 pips price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news event :



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