Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 127

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.16 09:12

EUR/USD Into FOMC - BNPP (based on efxnews article)

BNPP is expecting for Thursday’s FOMC statement to be in dovish way and as a result - the EUR/USD should come to 1.10 to be near 1.1088 reversal support level located inside Ichimoku cloud and below 200 day SMA in the ranging bearish area of the chart.

  • "The pattern, if extended through Thursday’s Fed result, would bode well for EURUSD to trade back towards 1.10 and USDJPY to extend its recovery towards 123."
  • "Still, we think risk-reward remains attractive for maintaining USD long exposure given our medium-term constructive view and light positioning."



For now - the price is located near above 200 day SMA to be ready for the bullish trend to be continuing, or to reverse to the primary bearish market condition with secodary ranging. If daily price crosses 1.1088 from above to below so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.16 12:00

Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD - SEB (based on efxnews article)

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made an intra-day forecast for EUR/USD. As we see from the chart below - the price is located between 100 SMA and 200 SMA for ranging market condition waiting for direction. On daily base - the price is near above 200 day SMA for trying to cross it from above to below for the ranging bearish condition to be started in this case.



EUR/USD: Bears are happier below 1.1329. "A near-term bearish impulse may or may have not yet started. If holding from breaking back over 1.1329 and instead extending the drop below the near-term "Equality point" at 1.1240 we believe in the former. Current intraday stretches (shouldn't really become tested ahead of Fed) are located at 1.1200 & 1.1370."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.17 12:57

How To Trade The FOMC - Credit Agricole (based on efxnews article)


  • "USD longs funded in low yielding currencies like CHF seem still attractive in our view. A Fed hike could boost the USD but may not necessarily trigger a sharp risk selloff. As a result the likes of EUR, CHF and JPY need not receive a massive boost. We like being long USD against CHF in particular because the positive correlation between CHF and risk aversion has been weakening recently."
  • "If the Fed doesn't hike and signal a lower glide path for Fed fund rates while downgrading its core inflation and unemployment projections, chances are that risk appetite could recover some more. While we could see investors unwinding decoupling trades and USD underperforming, we doubt that this will be sustained as markets will continue to see any decision to keep rates unchanged as delaying the inevitable. Under this scenario, the USD may lose some ground against EUR, CHF and JPY initially but the underperformance should be ultimately capped by the prospects for more policy divergence (eg more ECB QE) and resilient risk appetite. We think that USD/CHF should hold up well as EUR appreciates against both CHF and USD. When it comes to risk-correlated or commodity currencies, we doubt that any of them could regain ground on a sustained basis, given the lingering risks from China and the Fed."
  • "GBP could be among the more resilient currencies today especially if the Fed boosts investors’ demand for decoupling trades. Indeed, accelerating wage growth in the UK and increasingly hawkish rhetoric from the BoE has helped GBP regain some ground of late."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.18 07:14

USD Post-FOMC by Major Banks (based on efxnews article)

The dovish FOMC was on Thursday at 19:00 GMT so the major banks are made a forecast about the USD after FOMC.


Morgan Stanley: "Long USD positioning is vulnerable over coming days and perhaps weeks...But USD Impact Temporary. Our structurally bullish USD view has never been Fed-focused. Rather, our framework is built on the reduced investment attractiveness in much of the rest of the world. Any setback in the USD is likely to be short-lived in our view, providing a renewed buying opportunity against EM and commodity-related currencies."

BofA Merill: "The lowering of the median dots raises risks around a hike this year. But, the FOMC’s confidence in the outlook (particularly in the labor market) underpins hikes later this year, and therefore, the policy divergence theme we expect to support the USD. With a 30% chance priced into the meeting, we would expect some near-term pressure on the USD—particularly versus commodity-linked currencies where USD positioning is largest—as the timing of the first hike is now less certain. However, with any significant USD weakness likely to incent other central banks (like the ECB) to ease further and given our view for a December Fed hike, we see USD downside as limited here."

Nomura: "For the FX market specifically, Nomura doesn't think the information received today will lead to a sustained unwinding of USD longs versus G10 currencies—i.e., momentum could fade within a few sessions. We have been flat in terms of USD exposure versus majors for the last several weeks in anticipation of this outcome. But looking ahead, the Fed is still operating with liftoff this year as the central case, as the 2015 dots clearly signal. Bottom line: We still believe that our 1.10 year-end target for EURUSD is likely to be achieved under the assumption th that the Fed is able to raise rates by the December meeting, which seems fairly likely."

SocGen: "The Fed’s decision to leave rates on hold was not a surprise to a market positioned that way but the tone of the statement and the new lowered ‘dot-path’ (median sees one hike this year, 4 in 2016, 5 in 2017 and 3 in 2018 for a 3.375% Funds rate peak) have dragged Treasury yields down. That is not dollar-supportive. However, any bounce in risk assets will be short-lived. A dovish and dithering Fed inspires little confidence. Once EMinspired reduction in dollar long positions is over, we look for AUD, NZD and CAD to weaken again, with NZD the most vulnerable. And the biggest winner could still be the yen if the risk mood sours."

Danske: "We target EUR/USD at 1.10 in 3M and 6M and then up to 1.15 in 12M. We forecast JPY to underperform among the G4 as rising expectations for additional BoJ easing will support USD/JPY going into the 30 October Bank of Japan meeting. Moreover, we note that the upside potential in USD/JPY has increased following the past week’s substantial reduction in specualtive short JPY positions. We target USD/JPY at 124 and 125 in 3M and 6M, respectively. In contrast to EUR and JPY, GBP is also expected to perform on a 3M to 6M horizon supported by higher Uk interest rates as we still project Bank of England to hike in February. In the very short term, however, GBP is likely to come under pressure on low inflation prints in the UK as due to BoE’s explicit concerns about the weak short term inflation outlook. We forecast GBP/USD at 1.53 in 3M."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.18 14:01

Trade Ideas For EUR/USD - UBS (based on efxnews article)

From fundamental point of view

UBS made a forecast for EUR/USD based on fundamental news event which was yesterday:
"The overall reaction to the FOMC decision yesterday has been relatively muted considering this was one of the biggest events of the year. The market's focus can now shift elsewhere, and with concerns over China's economy and a lack of confidence from the Fed, equities should remain under pressure. The possibility of easing from the ECB in October should cap the upside in EURUSD."


From the technical point of view

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging between 1.1440 intermediate resistance level and 1.1131 intermediate support level. The key levels for the bearish or bullish trend to be continuing are the following: 1.1713 bullish resistance and 1.0924 bearish support. The price may be ranging within 1.1440/1.1131 or within 1.1713/1.0924 levels but the ranging market will be continuing until the price will break one of the bullish/bearish key s/r levels.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.20 18:18

USD, EUR, JPY, GBP and AUD For The Coming Week By Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)

USD: Bullish Despite the Fed. Bullish
"The more dovish Fed meeting does not change our bullish USD view. To us, the story for USD strength has always been much more about growth differentials than rate differentials. The Fed’s concern about global growth only highlights the extent to which this divergence continues. In the near term, there may be some short-lived retracement as markets reprice the first Fed hike, but we would use dips as a buying opportunity against EM and commodity currencies."

EUR: Still Supported from Risk. Neutral
"We remain bearish on EUR over the medium term but see reason for some support in the near term. EURUSD has been supported in the immediate aftermath of the Fed’s decision to keep rates on hold, benefiting from its inverse relationship with risk appetite. Eventually, we believe the effects of ECB policy and other bearish factors will push EUR lower, but we are not maintaining any shorts currently in our portfolio." 

JPY: Expect Strength on Crosses. Neutral
"We see upside to USDJPY as limited and believe there is scope for JPY to strengthen on the crosses. The S&P downgrade is likely to have limited impact on the currency, with most debt held domestically and Japanese pension fund reallocation largely completed. Market expectations for further BoJ easing are still high, but our economists are not expecting such a development. Rather, they see focus on building domestic inflationary pressures, rather than importing it via weaker FX."

GBP: Risk-Appetite Driven. Bearish
"We maintain our long bearish GBP view and like to sell against USD and JPY. We note that GBP is highly sensitive to risk appetite as can be seen by its high correlation with our global risk demand index (GRDIIDX). For this reason we continue to monitor the equity market reaction in this Fed-dependent environment. With inflation remaining low and the BoE not changing its tone in the recent minutes, we remain watchers of rate expectations too."

AUD: A Relative Outperformer. Bearish
"We see scope for AUD to outperform in the near term, but prefer to play this via long AUDNZD or long AUDCAD positions, given our generally bearish view on commodity and EM currencies. Scope for fiscal stimulus from China should offer some support to the currency as well. On top of this, with a new prime minister, political uncertainty should be reduced somewhat, offering further support."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.21 09:06

EUR/USD: Choppy Sideways Consolidation - by UOB (based on efxnews article)


  • "EUR/USD surged to a high of 1.1458/63 before reversing quickly to close on Friday almost 150 pips lower from the high."
  • "Only a move back above 1.1350 would indicate that the downward pressure has eased."
  • "The current outlook is deemed as neutral and we expect to see a period of broad and choppy sideways consolidation. Key levels are at 1.1170 and 1.1460."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.21 14:48

Trade ideas for EUR/USD by UBS (based on efxnews article)


EUR/USD: "In the short term, the pair may have come a bit too far in low volumes during the late US/early Asia trading hours, but we prefer playing the short side, looking to add around 1.1350, with an intraday stop at 1.1425."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.22 16:31

Trade Ideas For EUR/USD by UBS (based on efxnews article)


EUR/USD: "The first hurdle on the way lower is 1.1150/55, and if that breaks we think the pair may test the low of 1.1090 from the previous US payrolls release. We do not want to be short at these levels, but would get involved on any move closer to today's high of 1.1206, with a stop at 1.1255."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.23 08:08

EUR/USD Daily Outlook (based on actionforex article)


  • "Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for 1.1086 support. Break will resume the decline from 1.1713 and would target 1.0807 key near term support, which is close to 100% projection of 1.1713 to 1.1086 from 1.1459. Also, noted that whole corrective rise from 1.0461 has completed at 1.1713, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810. Break of 1.0807 would pave the way back to 1.0461. On the upside, above 1.1206 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first."
  • "In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 long term top is viewed as a corrective pattern with fall from 1.3993 as the third leg. Price actions from 1.0461 are viewed as correction to fall from 1.3993. Such correction could have completed ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810. Break of 1.0461 will extend the decline from 1.3993. On the upside, break of 1.2042 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of trend reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish and expect a new low below 1.0461 at a later stage."

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