Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 124

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.31 05:37

Where To Buy? - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)

  • "While resistance at 1.1397 caps, the immediate risk is seen staying lower, and a conclusive break below 1.1214 would warn the recent break higher and completion of a base was "false", to target the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1155 next, then the 21- and 55-day averages at 1.1125/07."
  • "Resistance moves to 1.1308 initially, then 1.1364. Above the “neckline” to last week’s small top at 1.1397 is needed to turn attention back to the 1.1714 breakout high."


CS runs a limit order to buy EUR/USD at 1.1108, with a stop at 1.1018 and a target at 1.1520.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.31 12:41

EUR/USD To Recover Friday Losses (based on actionforex article)


  • 'What we're looking out for this week is the dollar strengthening back again given that Fischer has failed to rule out a September rate hike.' - Bank of New Zealand Ltd (based on Bloomberg)
  • "EUR/USD increased pressure on bulls as it decided to retreat below the monthly R1 at 1.1196 on Friday. However, an immediate recovery above this important support during the weekend and on Monday is raising hopes a recovery will take place in the nearest future. At first, the common currency is required to consolidate above the Aug 28 opening price of 1.1242, while the next resistance is represented by the same day's high at 1.1309. Meanwhile, additional demand is also created by the 20-day SMA, currently at 1.1215, as well as strongly bullish daily technical indicators."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.31 16:30

EURUSD back above 1.1200 after probe below (based on forexlive article)


  • "A dip below 1.1200 didn't last long and the buyers have taken it back above, albeit by just a few pips."
  • "1.1210 provides resistance ahead of 1.1230. We may seem some minor resistance at 1.1220 also."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.01 12:54

Non-Farm Payrolls: actual data forecasting related to September hike - BNP Paribas (based on efxnews article)

2015-09-04 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Payrolls]

  • past data is 215K
  • forecast data is 220K
  • actual data is n/a

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Payrolls] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

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BNP Paribas made the comments on Friday's NFP related to September Fed hike and actual data forecasting. As we know - the forecast data is 220K, and if actual data is more than 220K for example so the USD to be more stronger in this case. Concerning EUR/USD, we can see that it may be bearish condition to be ibncrease for this pair during and immediate after this high impacted news event:

  • "Our economists expect an above-consensus 230K increase in jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 5.3%."
  • "Although this probably won’t be enough to force a September hike, there is scope for the US yield curve to turn more USD supportive if markets have greater conviction in the strength of the US economy and the Fed’s ability to pursue a sustained policy normalization cycle."

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EURUSD M5: 90 pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event:

M5 chart



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.01 18:11

Trade Ideas For EUR/USD, AUD/USD - UBS (based on efxnews article)

EUR/USD: "has traded bid since yesterday and it looks like 1.1200 is going to act as a base. We expect selling interest to show up on any move closer to 1.1400, so play the intraday moves and fade a 70 to 80 pip move in either direction, with stops at 1.1150 and 1.1425." 


AUD/USD: "continues to trade sideways.We still see AUDUSD heading lower, but are a bit cautious as the pair seems to struggle below 0.7100. This could be due to seasonal demand, and we will have to see if the sharp bounce in oil will support other commodities. Sell rallies between 0.7180 and 0.7250, with a stop above 0.7325."



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.02 07:40

Deutsche Bank: bullish condition for EUR/USD during and immediate after NFP (based on efxnews article)

BNP Paribas made the forecast for NFP to be more than 220K on Friday: "Our economists expect an above-consensus 230K increase in jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 5.3%."

By the way, Deutsche Bank is expecting for NFP to be significantly below 220K expectation:

  • "To be clear, we do not believe that underlying momentum in the labor market has meaningfully deteriorated. As we have previously noted, August employment has historically tended to disappoint consensus expectations. The last four August payroll reports were all weaker than expected; they were on average 55k below consensus."
  • "The data are even more compelling if we go back further in time. Since 1988, when our sample begins, August nonfarm payrolls have disappointed the financial markets in 21 of the last 27 years, or 78% of the time. The average forecasting error has been -61k. The range of misses, though, has been large. The median forecast error has been -42k."

So, we can expect the following concerning EUR/USD for example:

  • BNP Paribas - bearish condition for this pair during and immediate after this high impacted news event.
  • Deutsche Bank - bullish condition for this pair during and immediate after this high impacted news event.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.02 17:31

Trade Ideas For EUR/USD by UBS (based on efxnews article)


EUR/USD: "The market seems rangy and uncertain at the moment, but the ECB meeting on Thursday and US jobless figures on Friday may provide some clarity. Fade 70 to 80 pip moves in either direction today, with stops at 1.1145 and 1.1425."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.03 11:10

Trading the News: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)

Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to retain its current policy in September, the fresh updates coming out of the Governing Council may trigger a selloff in EUR/USD should the committee show a greater willingness to expand/extend its quantitative easing (QE) program.

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important

Dovish rhetoric accompanied by a downward revision in the ECB’s growth & inflation forecast is likely to dampen the appeal of the Euro, and central bank President Mario Draghi may talk up bets for additional monetary support in an effort to further insulate the fragile recovery in Europe.

Nevertheless, we may get more of the same from the ECB as the non-standard measures work through the real economy, and the near-term bound in EUR/USD may gather pace in September should the central bank endorse a wait-and-see approach.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Shows Greater Willingness for Larger/Longer QE Program

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the policy announcement to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bearish Euro trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.
Bullish EUR Trade: President Draghi Continues to Endorse Wait-and-See Approach
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily


  • Despite expectations for a greater deviation in the policy outlook, need a break of the near-term bullish trends in price & RSI to favor a further decline in EUR/USD.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.03 15:15

2015-09-03 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]
  • past data is -45.2B
  • forecast data is -43.2B
  • actual data is -41.9B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

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"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $41.9 billion in July, down $3.3 billion from $45.2 billion in June, revised. July exports were $188.5 billion, $0.8 billion more than June exports. July imports were $230.4 billion, $2.5 billion less than June imports."

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EURUSD M5: 166 pips price movement by USD - Trade Balance news event:



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.04 07:27

The Royal Bank of Scotland: Non-Farm Employment Change and basic trading scenarios (based on efxnews article)

The Royal Bank of Scotland evaluated some scenarios concerning NFP for today (September 4 at 13:30 GMT).

  • "250k to 300k:  Long USD/CHF."
  • "200k to 250k (Base-Case): Short EUR/USD."
  • "150k to 200k: Short USD/CAD."
  • "150k or below: Short USD/JPY."

As we know - Non-Farm Payrolls is the most high impacted news event which can move the price for the pairs and estimate the direction of the trend for the next week for example.
Just to remind about this news event:

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2015-09-03 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 215K
  • forecast data is 215K
  • actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

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EURUSD M5 : 44 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Payrolls news event:



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