Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 122

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.17 08:18

Goldman Sachs - Elliot Wave technical analysis on the daily EUR/USD (based on forexlive article)

Goldman Sachs made Elliot Wave technical analysis on the daily EUR/USD and those are the following comments (below their chart):


  • "Has finally sustained a break above its 55-dma and the July '14 downtrend".
  • "Both of these levels have been very relevant to recent price action. The 55-dma in particular held the entire decline from the May '13 high to early-Apr. '15. It should now act as important support at 1.1095."
  • "The next big pivot to focus on is 1.1168; an ABC from the Jul. 20 th low. A close above will open potential for a 1.618 extension target to 1.1366. This also happens to be close to the previous two highs from May/June (1.1438-68) and a 0.618 extension from March (1.1432)."
  • "Overall, seems the next two big levels are 1.1168 and then 1.1366-1.1468."

If we look at the other patterns so we can see just two situations around: short-term (forming bearish patterns) and long-term (forming bullish patterns).

Short-term scenario

This is forming bearish gartley for H12 timeframe:


This is the forming bearish retracement pattern for H8 timeframe:


Long-tern situation with bullish

Forming bullish butterfly pattern and forming bullish 3-Drives pattern for MN1:



Thus, we can confirm for EURUSD to be in bearish market condition in short-term situation up to 2015 year-end for example, and in bullish condition in long-term in 2016.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.17 20:02

Friday held the MA. Today more below. (based on forexlive article)

"The EURUSD closed last week by keeping the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) as a support level. Today in the Asia-Pacific session, the price dipped below that moving average level, and has stayed below (at least on a closing basis) since that time.  The weaker than expected Empire manufacturing has push the price back above the moving average, but last hours closing price could still not close above it. So there is some reluctance to have a momentum shift to the upside.  The current 100 hour moving average comes in at 1.11147."



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.18 10:21

FOMC Meeting Minutes expectations by Barclays and September Fed hike (based on efxnews article)

Barclays made a forecast for high impacted fundamental news events which will be on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. The bank is telling that Federal Open Market Committee is already made a decision concerning a September Fed hike. Besides, Barclays is expecting the USD dollar to gain strength because "fears around China and weak commodity prices should keep pushing investors out of risky assets":

  • "We do not expect a material change and we anticipate that the document will echo the latest comments from different FOMC members. We think they will want to keep options open and will probably signal the data dependency of their decisions ahead. We believe that the FOMC has already made up their mind about their next move, absent any market disruptive events in the months ahead. Our base case remains a September Fed hike."
  • "Furthermore, we argued that the actual path of the normalization process will be more important for FX markets. The pace at which the Fed could tighten monetary conditions should depend heavily on price measures."
  • "We expect the USD to be supported in the next weeks mainly due to external factors. Fears around China and weak commodity prices should keep pushing investors out of risky assets, benefiting the USD under different scenarios."
The next FOMC Meeting Minutes will be in Oct 8, 2015 so we should really expect something important one for this release on on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT concerning September Fed hike.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.18 20:21

BNP Paribas: 2 Things To Look For At FOMC Minutes (based on efxnews article)


  • "The key message will probably be that ‘lift-off’ is approaching and that we moved a step closer in July. A majority of FOMC participants probably still expected ‘lift-off’ to be appropriate sometime this year. As markets are already pricing this in, the minutes should present few surprises."
  • "Two things to look for: (1) what “some” further labor-market improvement means and (2) why there was no progress report on being “reasonably confident” in the inflation outlook."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.19 06:54

The Royal Bank of Scotland - FOMC Meeting Minutes and Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on efxnews article)

Chair Yellen is not speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium this year:

  • "While our economist Michelle Girard thinks the Fed may disappoint on giving a “firm” signal, which would fit with their data dependent outlook, she sees a risk that the FOMC minutes begin to put a greater emphasis on the pace of hikes being gradual. A clear discussion along those lines may be a “soft signal” that an earlier start to rate hikes, giving more assurance that a gradual pace can be taken, is the preferred path of the FOMC’s majority."
  • "Because the meeting took place before China’s devaluation, that discussion should not come up in the FOMC July minutes."
  • "It’s also too early for that impact to be seen in the July CPI, which is the key data release tomorrow in the US ahead of the FOMC minutes. Our economists see the risks to the y/y rate as slightly on the upside – a “high” 0.2% m/m edge up in the core CPI index could push the y/y rate up from 1.8% to 1.9% y/y."

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 16.08 - 23.08: ranging with waiting for direction

Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.19 14:19

Just a situation for this pair before USD - CPI:


We see sell stop and buy stop levels on the chart (red dotten line and blue dotted line).


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.20 08:34

Time To Turn Bullish On EUR - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)

EUR will be on bullish, and the main reason for CS to decide it is the still-high risk that the ECB may have to re-enter the easing fray down the line:

"For example, as Exhibit 2 shows, European inflation breakevens have also been falling recently. With the ECB's credibility is on the line as it proceeds with its QE program, it is hard to imagine it standing pat for long and allowing sustained EUR strength to provide a fresh reason for these indicators to push still lower."

By the way - EUR/USD was already turned to bullish in intra-day basis:



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.20 14:47

Technical Forecast For EUR/USD and NZD/USD by UBS Group (based on efxnews article)

UBS Group AG made technical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF and NZD/USD. This technical forecast may be valid for today and tomorrow and related to the trading strategies which aee using UBS itself for example.

EUR/USD: "We recommend playing a cautious long for a test of the higher end of recent range of 1.0800-1.1200." As we see from the chart - this long is already going on with 1.1461 as a final bullish target for the end of the week. By the way, the more real intra-day target is 1.1213 which is intermediate resistance on the way to the bullish breakout for example.



NZD/USD: "Look to establish fresh shorts between 0.6640 and 0.6750, with a stop above 0.6825, targeting a test of the low from earlier this month." To say it shorter - UBS are waiting for the price to be between 0.6640 and 0.6750 to open sell trade with stop loss above 0.6825. The real targets in this case may be the following: 0.6496 and 0.6466. By the way, this NZD/USD forecasting is more intra-day one than daily technicals: as we see from the chart - the price is breaking symmetric triangle pattern from below to above to go to 0.6648 where we can place a sell order from.



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.21 06:51

The Case For Tactical EUR Rally; Where To Target? - Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)

Ongoing EUR rally projecting its potential target in the near-term along with its year-end target for the pair:

  1. "Strong investment outflows from the eurozone since the beginning of the year, and the use of EUR as a global funding currency, not just for portfolio investment but also for longerterm business investment, were major contributing factors to the EUR’s steep decline earlier in the year. Without these investment and funding outflows the structural commercial inflows to the eurozone, resulting from the regions’ current account surplus, have the potential to push the EUR higher."
  2. "When a dovish Fed fails to spur markets to take on more risk, then it is time to take a cautious approach. Sharply falling commodity prices tell the same story, suggesting non-commodity currencies that either run current account surpluses or positive net foreign asset positions will rally. Hence, USD markets will likely stay split - USD benefiting from EM repatriation flows, while staying offered against surplus currencies. We expect the EUR and the SEK to benefit most from declining cross border investment flows and rising cross border liquidation flows."
  3. "European banks overseas lending data, another indicator of the use of the EUR for foreign funding, also showed a setback in the pace of gains in the second quarter of the year...While foreign investor portfolio inflows to European assets have been currency hedged, suggesting little in the way of direct currency impact from foreign inflows or outflows, the subsequent hedging activity is a significant EUR driver."
  4. "We believe there is scope for a EURUSD rebound to 1.15, with the EUR also outperforming on many of the crosses, especially against EM and commodity-related currencies...However, we reiterate our longer term bearish EURUSD view with 1.05 projected for year-end."

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