Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 115

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.03 21:01

A short Cheat-Sheet For Trading Greek Referendum In FX - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)

1- "Victory of the “No” camp, would immediately cast markets in uncharted territory. The vote alone might not necessarily trigger a systemic reaction, but we would expect the increase in uncertainty to weigh on EUR and on risk assets, with surging demand for “safe haven” currencies such USD, CHF, JPY and GBP," CS projects.

2- In the event of a “Yes” vote, we think the likely knee-jerk move higher in EURUSD would likely be short-lived.  The victory of the “Yes” camp, would likely have a more limited impact on monetary policy stances outside of the Euro area, in our view. In other words, the removal of the immediate risk of a potentially systemic event would allow markets to refocus on the policy divergence story," CS adds.

3- "Finally, while a “yes” victory would reduce the immediate risk of a Greek exit from the euroarea, many aspects of the post-vote outlook would remain very uncertain. As an example, a minimally reworked extension of the now expired Greek bailout terms could be viewed by markets as insufficient to prevent renewed flaring up of peripheral risk later this year," CS argues.

4- "We remain firmly of the view that this story remains EUR bearish," CS concludes.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.03 21:05

Tech Setups For USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD - Barclays (based on efxnews article)

USD/JPY: Thursday’s sell-off into the close signals a short-term top that caps the recent rally attempt. We prefer to use any subsequent dip as an opportunity to buy at better levels and expect buying interest near 122.00 to underpin a move towards the 124.40 area. A break above the latter would open the 125.85 greater range highs. Further out, we are targeting the 132.20 area. 

GBP/USD: Yesterday’s “doji” candle has compelled us to re-establish a bullish view. A break above 1.5670 would add to our bullish conviction and open our targets near 1.5790 and then the 1.5930 highs. 

AUD/USD: The break below the 0.7585 range lows endorses our bearish view reachnig our initial targets near the 0.7530 lows. Further out, we look for a move towards the 0.7100 area.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.05 14:52

Weekly outlook by Morgan Stanley for USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF (based on efxnews article)

USD: Neutral
"We see scope for USD to remain supported against most currencies in G10. Data over the past week has been strong, most notably consumer confidence. At the same time, the market has pushed back the timing of the first Fed hike due to uncertainty in Greece. We see scope for this to come forward on the back of a resolution in Greece in either direction, offering support to USD."

EUR: Bearish
"We believe there is little scope for EUR to rally, regardless of the outcome in Greece. A ‘No’ vote in the referendum is likely to lead to Greece exit from the euro over time. The ECB may well have to undertake aggressive action to stabilize markets, and the enhanced liquidity is likely to weigh on the currency. On the other hand, a ‘Yes’ vote without a credible plan for the future, but rather a ‘muddle through’ solution is likely to keep uncertainty high and reduce appetite for eurozone assets."

JPY: Bullish
"In an environment of soft risk appetite, we think that JPY is likely to be an outperformer. Higher volatility is likely to drive some repatriation flows as well, and we note that portfolio flows have turned more positive. JPY is the most overvalued G10 currency on a PPP basis, supporting our view that there is scope for strength. Stronger data mean the policy tone is changing, and we expect the currency to remain supported."

GBP: Neutral
"GBPUSD has weakened from Greek risks and weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI; however, we still see strength in the more important services sector. In particular wages here appear to be picking up which has supported rate expectations in the UK and therefore GBP. We believe there is potential for GBPUSD to reach 1.60 but prefer buying on the crosses, in particular against the NOK where an accommodative central bank highlights the divergences between the two currencies."

CHF: Bearish
"The SNB announced that it intervened following the Greek referendum announcement. This suggests to us that the SNB is less worried about the level of EURCHF and intervened more on the anticipation of rapid CHF strength. While Greek risks remain, the rapid falls in EURCHF are likely to be limited. We wait for opportunities to buy USDCHF as longer term we will start to see the negative economic impact of the stronger currency."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.06 13:40

UBS: Trade Ideas for EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD (based on efxnews article)

EURUSD: "it has had a muted reaction despite the surprise outcome from the Greece referendum. Even though the market is positioned short, we expect the pair to test the downside sooner rather than later this week. Keep it tight but prefer short and add on more spikes above 1.1055 with stops above 1.1125."


GBPUSD: "Cable should remain vulnerable to Greek updates. Cable could continue holding the recent downtrend with the double top just ahead of 1.6000 while approaching the 200-day moving average at 1.5447. Stay flexible and keep stops extremely tight, but prefer selling."


AUDUSD: "The reaction to the Greek 'No' vote has been muted so far but risk should trade soft given the likelihood of further escalation of the crisis. Sell rallies to 0.7500-0.7550 with stops through 0.7610."



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.06 18:18

EURUSD moves back toward trend line and MA resistance (based on forexlive article)

'The EURUSD was able to move back above the 100 day MA at the 1.10379 level and we are now seeing a further move higher in the pair. Earlier today, the price extended to the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) and a topside trend line (see blue circles) and held. The price is looking toward that same combination. This time it is a bit lower at the 1.1088.'



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.07 08:04

Deutsche Bank - What Risk Resilience Implies For Grexit & The EUR (based on efxnews article)

  1. "Opinion is divided between the following two trains of thought: i) that the market is still optimistic that a negotiated settlement can be reached and Grexit averted. Or, ii) Grexit is no longer seen as particularly disruptive for global markets, at least in the short-term. Importantly i) and ii) are deeply inter-connected."
  2. "The most important aspect of the latest risk resilience is that it has dramatically weakened Greece’s negotiating power. Market resilience adds to the prospects of either Grexit, or Greece agreeing to terms that are not that different from what was on offer prior to the referendum, which may not be credible as a long-term solution."
  3. "So where does this leave the EUR? The worst case scenario, we have been staring at, notably Grexit, has not hurt the EUR much for now, while the best case scenarios (a negotiated settlement) are not a great reason to buy the EUR either, not least because it will be tough to reach a deal that has long-term credibility," DB adds.
  4. "One implication is that there is definitely a case to be made to sell short-dated (1m or 2m) realized EUR/USD volatility, especially versus implied vols that will remain pumped up by uncertainty. We still like EUR/USD digital risk reversal trades, where selling 3m 1.14 strikes can finance a 3m 1.08 put at close to zero cost, and the timeline potentially covers a Grexit, or a September Fed tightening."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.07 16:47

Trade Ideas For EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UBS (based on efxnews article)

EUR/USD: "It looks like summer markets have kicked in, but the Greek uncertainty is keeping things alive. We still prefer shorts even though the range play will most likely continue. Sell at 1.1055 and add at 1.1090 with stops above 1.1125. Flows are mixed with no clear direction."

AUD/USD: "The RBA kept the target rate on hold, as expected. Stay short and add on rallies to 0.7550 with stops through 0.7625, targeting 0.7200."

NZD/USD: "price action remains very soft after the pair got capped above 0.6710 yesterday. We prefer to remain short and add on rallies toward 0.6750 with stops through 0.6850."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.08 08:09

EURUSD has a squeeze higher and a rotation back lower (based on forexlive article)


'The EURUSD moved above the 100 bar MA on the intraday 5-minute chart and the 50% of the last leg down. That was enough to trigger some stops above 1.0958. The move back above the 50% of the move up from the March 2015 low at 1.1063 (not shown) also contributed to the rise and the price scooted to 1.09749.'


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.09 07:42

JP Morgan about EUR/USD: Levels & Targets (based on efxnews article)

"EUR/USD overnight break above 1.0983/1.1002 (minor 38.2 %/pivot) eased some downside pressure, but only through clear moves above 1.1094 and 1.1108 (h.Ich.-lagging/h. trend) we’d reach neutral territory," says JP Morgan.


"On the downside, JPM sees the next T-zone between 1.0815 and 1.0783/72/44/04 (May low/c=a/d. Ich.-lagg./int. 76.4 %//daily trend)."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.09 10:33

Trading news events - Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)

The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision may offer little relief to recent decline in GBP/USD as the central bank is widely expected to retain its current policy in July, and the committee may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach amid the growing threat of a Greek exit.

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

Heightening uncertainties surrounding the Euro-Zone – the U.K.’s largest trading partner – may prompt the BoE to further delay its normalization cycle, and the British Pound may face additional headwinds in the second-half of the year should Governor Mark Carney highlight a more dovish outlook for monetary policy.

However, the BoE may largely retain its current policy throughout the remainder of the year as the geopolitical risks surrounding the U.K. dampens the outlook for growth and inflation, and the central bank may carry the record-low interest rate into 2016 in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish GBP Trade: BoE to Stay on Course to Remove Record-Low Interest Rate

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the decision to consider a long GBP/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors buying Cable, go long GBP/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.
Bearish GBP Trade: MPC Highlights Dovish Outlook for Monetary Policy
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish sterling trade, just in opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release

GBP/USD Daily


  • Failure to preserve the bullish RSI momentum carried over from March raises the risk for a further decline in GBP/USD; break/close below 1.5330 (78.6% retracement) may spark a run at the June low (1.5169).
  • Interim Resistance: 1.5550 (50% retracement) to 1.5570 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.5169 (June low) to 1.5180 (23.6% retracement)

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