Tech Setups for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP, and AUD/USD - Barclays - Trading Systems

Sergey Golubev 2015.05.26 07:28 #1071

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.26 09:26

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Sellers Overcome 1.10 Figure (based on dailyfx article)

Support: 1.0934, 1.0808, 1.0653
Resistance:1.1059, 1.1214, 1.1310

The Euro turned lower against the US Dollar as expected after negative RSI divergence pointed to fading upside momentum. Near-term support is at 1.0934, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 61.8% level at 1.0808. Alternatively, a reversal above the 38.2% Fib at 1.1059 clears the way for a test of the 23.6% expansion at 1.1214.

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, Press review EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015,

Sergey Golubev 2015.05.26 18:04 #1072

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.26 20:04

Tech Setups For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD - Barclays (adapted from efxnews article)

The following are the latest technical setups for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at Barclays Capital.

EUR/USD: Our bearish view was encouraged by the close below former range highs near 1.1055. We are looking for a move lower towards targets near 1.0850 and then the 1.0660 area. Our greater targets are towards 1.0460. 1.1055 reverts to resistance.

USD/JPY: The break above the 122.05 highs confirms our bullish view and completion of the six-month range trade. Our greater upside targets are in the 124.15 area.

GBP/USD: Last Friday’s bearish engulfing candle and the subsequent move through 1.5445 signals a squeeze lower towards our targets near 1.5335. Breaking below there would signal deeper setback towards 1.5130, the 50-dma.

AUD/USD: Last week’s bearish engulfing candle encourages our bearish view. A close below our initial downside targets near 0.7790 would signal lower towards 0.7680.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2015, Press review EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015,

Sergey Golubev 2015.05.27 14:25 #1073

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.27 16:22

2015-05-27 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

past data is 0.75%
forecast data is 0.75%
actual data is 0.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

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Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 3/4 per cent

"The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 3/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per cent.

Inflation in Canada continues to track the path outlined in the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Total CPI inflation is near the bottom of the Bank's 1 to 3 per cent inflation control range, largely due to the transitory effects of sharply lower energy prices. Core inflation remains above 2 per cent, boosted by the pass-through effects of past depreciation of the Canadian dollar, as well as certain sector-specific factors. Seeing through the various temporary factors, the Bank estimates that the underlying trend of inflation is 1.6 to 1.8 per cent, consistent with persistent slack in the economy.

The outlook for the Canadian economy also remains largely in line with the April MPR. While a weak first quarter in the United States has raised questions about that economy’s underlying strength, the Bank expects a return to solid growth in the second quarter. This will help advance the rotation of demand in Canada toward more exports and business investment. Recent indicators suggest consumption in Canada is holding up relatively well, given the impact of lower oil prices on gross domestic income."

USDCAD M5: 44 pips range price movement by USDCAD - Overnight Rate news event:

Press review USDCAD news Forecast for Q2'16 -

Sergey Golubev 2015.05.28 05:14 #1074

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.28 07:14

Trading the News: U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on dailyfx article)

An upward revision in the U.K. 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print may heighten the appeal of the British Pound and spur a near-term rebound in GBP/USD as signs of a stronger recovery raises the Bank of England’s (BoE) scope to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

A marked uptick in the growth rate may spur a growing dissent within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as the central bank remains on course to normalize monetary policy, and we may see a greater number of BoE officials prepare U.K. households and business for higher borrowing-costs as the economy gets on a firmer footing.

However, the widening trade deficit paired with the ongoing slack in private-sector activity may drag on the growth rate, and a dismal GDP figure may further delay the BoE’s normalization cycle especially on the back of the uncertainties clouding the outlook for fiscal policy.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. 1Q GDP Expands Annualized 2.5% or Greater

Need to see green, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a long trade on GBP/USD.
If market reaction favors a long sterling trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate position.
Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish GBP Trade: Growth Rate, Personal Consumption Falls Short of Market Forecast

Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade.
Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

GBP/USD Daily

GBP/USD remains at risk for further weakness as price & the RSI fail to retain the bullish formation carried over from April;
Interim Resistance: 1.5550 (61.8% expansion) 1.5570 (38.2% retracement)
Interim Support: 1.5180 (23.6% retracement) to 1.5190 (50% retracement)

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GBPUSD, M5, 2015.05.28

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Press review Forecast for Q1'16 - EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015,

Sergey Golubev 2015.05.28 05:50 #1075

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.28 07:48

2015-05-28 02:30 GMT (or 04:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Private Capital Expenditure]

past data is -1.7%
forecast data is -2.3%
actual data is -4.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Private Capital Expenditure] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses are quickly affected by market conditions, and changes in their investment levels can be an early signal of future economic activity such as hiring, spending, and earnings.

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The trend volume estimate for total new capital expenditure fell 2.3% in the March quarter 2015 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 4.4%.
The trend volume estimate for buildings and structures fell 3.7% in the March quarter 2015 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 6.5%.
The trend volume estimate for equipment, plant and machinery rose 0.7% in the March quarter 2015 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.5%.

==========

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2015, Press review Forecast for Q4'16 -

Sergey Golubev 2015.05.28 13:24 #1076

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.28 15:09

2015-05-28 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

past data is 275K
forecast data is 271K
actual data is 282K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy.

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"In the week ending May 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claimswas 282,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 274,000 to 275,000. The 4-week moving average was 271,500, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 266,250 to 266,500."

"The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment ratewas 1.7 percent for the week ending May 16, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemploymentduring the week ending May 16 was 2,222,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 2,211,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,221,250, a decrease of 8,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 2,229,750. This is the lowest level for this average since November 25, 2000 when it was 2,211,250."

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USDJPY M5: 24 pips range price movement by USD - Unemployment Claims news event

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2015, Press review

Sergey Golubev 2015.05.29 05:03 #1077

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.29 06:19

A fresh factor will drive EUR/USD declines - Deutsche Bank (based on forexlive article)

Cleaner positioning. "Equally, positioning metrics suggest that dollar longs have being pared back. A regression of currency manager index returns against the DXY now points to flat positioning, while the IMM shows a greater than 50% paring back in dollar longs," Deutsche Bank notes.

All about the Fed. "History has been all about the ECB, but the dominant driver of FX is now likely to be the Fed. On that front, monetary policy could come back in focus sooner than many expect," Deutsche Bank argues.

Euro still a good short. "While market focus is very likely to shift to the other side of the Atlantic, EUR/USD is still a good vehicle to express dollar longs. To start with, the euro is a consistent underperformer around Fed turning points," DB advises.

Negative euro flows. "Beyond that, the European flow picture remains very negative. The recent VaR shock in bund yields is likely to further discourage, rather than encourage fixed income inflows," Deutsche Bank adds.

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, Press review Euro Dollar Rate Forecasts

Sergey Golubev 2015.05.29 06:21 #1078

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.29 08:20

2015-05-29 02:00 GMT (or 04:00 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - NBNZ Business Confidence]

past data is 30.2
forecast data is n/a
actual data is 15.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - NBNZ Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.

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Business confidence and firms’ signals on the employment, investment and activity front are receding. They’re receding from high levels though, so let’s keep it in perspective.
The growth side of the economy still looks okay; optimism is just progressively being tempered. There are risks though, and declines are looking more trend-like.
Inflation expectations fell to a historical low. A low headline inflation rate will be playing a role, but it’s notable that inflation expectations are tracking below the inflation target midpoint; that’s unusual.

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NZDUSD M5: 28 pips price movement by NZD - NBNZ Business Confidence news event

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Press review NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2015, Forecast for Q4'16 -

Sergey Golubev 2015.05.29 08:38 #1079

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.29 10:37

Trading News Events: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on dailyfx article)

A marked downward revision in the preliminary 1Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may drag on the greenback and spur a near-term rebound in EUR/USD as the Federal Reserve looks to carry its zero-interest rate policy into the second-half of 2015.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

Even though the Fed pledges to look past the economic weakness drive by transitory factors, a larger-than-expected contraction in the growth rate may spur a further delay in the central bank’s normalization cycle as it undermines expectations for a stronger recovery.

Nevertheless, increased business outputs paired with the expansion in private-sector credit may offer a better-than-expected GDP print, and prospects for a stronger recovery may spur a bullish reaction in the dollar as the Fed remains on course to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) in 2015.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish USD Trade: Growth Rate Contracts 0.9% or Greater

Need to see green, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a long trade on EURUSD.
If market reaction favors a short dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position.
Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bullish USD Trade: 1Q GDP Report Exceeds Market Forecast

Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade.
Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily

Failure to preserve the near-term downward trending channel may generate a larger rebound in EUR/USD and spur a consolidation phase in the days ahead.
Interim Resistance: 1.1180 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement)
Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

4Q 2014 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
EURUSD M5: 19 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event:

Even though the preliminary 4Q U.S. GDP print was revised down to an annualized 2.2% from an initial forecast of 2.6%, the print still managed to exceed market expectations for a 2.0% rate of growth. At the same time, Personal Consumption was also revised down to 4.2% from 4.3%, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) remained unchanged at 1.1% during the same period. The better-than-expected GDP reading may keep the Fed on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015 as the central bank anticipates a stronger recovery in the year ahead. The greenback strengthened following the report, with EUR/USD slipping below the 1.1200 handle to end the North American session at 1.1189.