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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.22 14:19
Technical Targets for USD/JPY by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
H4 price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bearish market condition: the price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:
- 100.96 resistance level located below 100 SMA/100 SMA in the beginning of the secondary rally to be started, and
- 99.52 support level located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal in the bearish area of the chart.
The bullish reversal level is 102.19 resistance, and if the price breaks this level to above on close H4 bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for USD/JPY to be continuing for the bearish trend with the ranging market condition:
"While the stop-loss for the current bearish USD view is still intact at 101.20, the strong rebound last Friday and the strongly opening this morning clearly indicates a lower odds for further USD weakness. Unless USD can move and stay below 100.00 within these couple of days, a break above 101.20 would not be surprising."
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.28 08:23
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)
USD/JPY - "At a certain point these traders will lose patience given the cost of borrowing USD in order to buy the lower-yielding JPY, and the threat of short-covering adds topside risk to the USD/JPY. The coming week’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report could go a long way in improving the odds of a Fed rate hike. It will be critical to watch whether traders may finally force the USD/JPY out of its long-standing trading range."
Daily price broke 101.28 level and 101.93 level together with ascending triangle pattern to above. So, we are having bear market rally here to be started on this Monday:
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.02 14:48
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD and NZD/USD: Non-Farm Payrolls
2016-09-02 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
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"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in August, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in several service-providing industries."
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USD/JPY M5: 62 pips price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news event
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.03 11:55
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)
USD/JPY - "Next week, the finalized print for 2Q GDP for the Japanese economy is expected to see an upward revision to a seasonally adjusted 0.4% q/q up from the preliminary reading of 0.2%. The GDP print will be combined with the Balance of Payments reading that will help traders see how the export-dependent economy is faring in an environment of a rather strong JPY."Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.05 07:26
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Japan Gov Kuroda Speaks and 54 pips range price movement
2016-09-05 02:30 GMT | [JPY - BoJ Gov Kuroda Speaks]
[JPY - BoJ Gov Kuroda Speaks] = Speech at the Kyodo News event, in Tokyo.
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From forexlive article: Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speaking at a ''Kisaragi-kai'' forum sponsored by Kyodo News
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USD/JPY M5: 54 pips range price movement by Bank of Japan Gov Kuroda Speech news event
USD/JPY: End Of Week Technicals - Ranging Bearish Near Bullish Reversal
This trading week ended with some interesting daily/intra-day results and setups for USD/JPY so, let's describe some of the interesting moments for this pair.
D1 price is on primary bearish market condition: the price is on ranging within 103.80 bullish reversal resistance level and 101.19 bearish continuation level. Symmetric triangle pattern was fomred by the price to be crossed for the direction of the trend, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the bearish ranging to be continuing in the near future.
H4 price is on ranging near Ichimoku cloud: price broke this cloud to below once again for the possible bearish reversal:
- Chinkou
Span line crossed the price from above to below for good possible breakdown in the near future.
- Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.
- Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as the ranging bearish in the near future.
If H4 price breaks 101.19 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.If H4 price breaks 102.74 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : rangingUSD/JPY M5: 40 pips price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.17 18:39
Week Ahead: Get Ready For A Pivotal Week For Markets - Credit Agricole (based on the article)
USD/JPY H4 timeframe
The price is located near and above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart and below 100 SMA for the ranging market condition. The price is trying to break 100 SMA together with symmetric triangle pattern to above for the price to be reversed from the ranging bullish to the primary bullish trend. Alterbative, if the price breaks 101.73 support level to below so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
SUMMARY : ranging
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.21 07:46
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Japan Policy Rate and 134 pips price movement
2016-09-21 04:18 GMT | [JPY - BoJ Policy Rate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)
[JPY - BoJ Policy Rate] = Interest rate levied on excess current account balances held at the BOJ.
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From CNBC article: Bank of Japan sets long-term rate target in major policy overhaul -Among the changes, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said it would make yield curve control a centerpiece of its new policy framework, by a seven-to-two vote. It said it would buy 10-year JGBs so that the yield would hover around zero percent.
The changes indicated the central bank's promised comprehensive review of the effectiveness of its policies was fruitful, and many of the new policies appeared to address critics' concerns about negative effects of the BOJ's aggressive easing measures.
The BOJ eliminated the maturity range for its Japan government bond purchases and it abandoned its target to increase the monetary base by 80 trillion yen a year, although the central bank said it currently plans to keep buying bonds so that the balance of its holdings increase by that amount.
It kept its deposit rate unchanged at negative 0.1 percent.
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USD/JPY M5: 134 pips price movement by Bank of Japan Policy Rate news event