Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for USD/JPY - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.22 14:19

Technical Targets for USD/JPY by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bearish market condition: the price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 100.96 resistance level located below 100 SMA/100 SMA in the beginning of the secondary rally to be started, and
  • 99.52 support level located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal in the bearish area of the chart.
The bullish reversal level is 102.19 resistance, and if the price breaks this level to above on close H4 bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.


Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for USD/JPY to be continuing for the bearish trend with the ranging market condition:

"While the stop-loss for the current bearish USD view is still intact at 101.20, the strong rebound last Friday and the strongly opening this morning clearly indicates a lower odds for further USD weakness. Unless USD can move and stay below 100.00 within these couple of days, a break above 101.20 would not be surprising."


  • If daily price breaks 102.56 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  • If daily price breaks 99.52 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.28 08:23

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

USD/JPY - "At a certain point these traders will lose patience given the cost of borrowing USD in order to buy the lower-yielding JPY, and the threat of short-covering adds topside risk to the USD/JPY. The coming week’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report could go a long way in improving the odds of a Fed rate hike. It will be critical to watch whether traders may finally force the USD/JPY out of its long-standing trading range."




Daily price broke 101.28 level and 101.93 level together with ascending triangle pattern to above. So, we are having bear market rally here to be started on this Monday:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.02 14:48

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD and NZD/USD: Non-Farm Payrolls

2016-09-02 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in August, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in several service-providing industries."

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USD/JPY M5: 62 pips price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.03 11:55

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

USD/JPY - "Next week, the finalized print for 2Q GDP for the Japanese economy is expected to see an upward revision to a seasonally adjusted 0.4% q/q up from the preliminary reading of 0.2%. The GDP print will be combined with the Balance of Payments reading that will help traders see how the export-dependent economy is faring in an environment of a rather strong JPY."



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.05 07:26

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Japan Gov Kuroda Speaks and 54 pips range price movement

2016-09-05 02:30 GMT | [JPY - BoJ Gov Kuroda Speaks]

[JPY - BoJ Gov Kuroda Speaks] = Speech at the Kyodo News event, in Tokyo.

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From forexlive article: Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speaking at a ''Kisaragi-kai'' forum sponsored by Kyodo News

  • Have no specific idea now on how comprehensive assessment will affect direction of monetary policy
  • I am not too pessimistic on outlook of China's economy
  • Expect China's economy to achieve fairly stable growth due in part to govt stimulus steps
  • Won't comment on what level can be the limit in terms of deepening negative rates
  • See room to deepen negative rates further, must consider costs and benefits of doing so when guiding monetary policy
  • Japan's jobless rate is near full employment but tightening job market has yet to sufficiently push up wages, prices
  • Conditions for wages, prices to rise are falling in place so expect underlying price trend to improve steadily ahead

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USD/JPY M5: 54 pips range price movement by Bank of Japan Gov Kuroda Speech news event



 

USD/JPY: End Of Week Technicals - Ranging Bearish Near Bullish Reversal

This trading week ended with some interesting daily/intra-day results and setups for USD/JPY so, let's describe some of the interesting moments for this pair.

D1 price is on primary bearish market condition: the price is on ranging within 103.80 bullish reversal resistance level and 101.19 bearish continuation level. Symmetric triangle pattern was fomred by the price to be crossed for the direction of the trend, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the bearish ranging to be continuing in the near future.


H4 price is on ranging near Ichimoku cloud: price broke this cloud to below once again for the possible bearish reversal:

  • Chinkou Span line crossed the price from above to below for good possible breakdown in the near future.
  • Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as the ranging bearish in the near future.
If H4 price breaks 101.19 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If H4 price breaks 102.74 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 102.74 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 101.19 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bearish
Resistance
 Support
102.74
101.41
103.35101.19
104.19N/A

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging
 

USD/JPY M5: 40 pips price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.17 18:39

Week Ahead: Get Ready For A Pivotal Week For Markets - Credit Agricole (based on the article)

USD/JPY H4 timeframe

The price is located near and above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart and below 100 SMA for the ranging market condition. The price is trying to break 100 SMA together with symmetric triangle pattern to above for the price to be reversed from the ranging bullish to the primary bullish trend. Alterbative, if the price breaks 101.73 support level to below so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.

  • "Next week could prove pivotal for the markets for two reasons. First, we expect the BoJ to announce policies to re-steepen the JGB curve and even cut depo rates further. Importantly, the meeting may not allay fears that the BoJ is quickly running out of options to ease further. All that could continue to push Japanese long-term yields higher. Second, the Fed should keep rates unchanged but could come out with a relatively more hawkish statement, potentially making reference to a rate hike in the coming months."
  • "The BoJ and the Fed meetings could add vigour to the latest tightening in global financial conditions, and lead to further underperformance of commodity and high-yielding G10 currencies. Growing uncertainty ahead of the US presidential election could also fuel the headwinds for market risk sentiment as we approach the first televised debate on 26 September."
  • "USD/JPY could remain caught between re-emerging policy divergence on the one hand and escalating risk aversion on the other. That said, we think that short-term volatility should remain bid ahead of next Wednesday."


  • If the price will break 102.75 resistance level so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If price will break 101.73 support so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
102.75101.73
103.34101.19
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 101.73 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 102.75 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.21 07:46

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Japan Policy Rate and 134 pips price movement

2016-09-21 04:18 GMT | [JPY - BoJ Policy Rate]

  • past data is -0.10%
  • forecast data is -0.20%
  • actual data is -0.10% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - BoJ Policy Rate] = Interest rate levied on excess current account balances held at the BOJ.

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From CNBC article: Bank of Japan sets long-term rate target in major policy overhaul -
Japan's central bank kept rates steady at its meeting Wednesday but issued a plethora of fresh changes to its policy approach, marking its latest attempt to boost prices and goose economic growth.

Among the changes, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said it would make yield curve control a centerpiece of its new policy framework, by a seven-to-two vote. It said it would buy 10-year JGBs so that the yield would hover around zero percent.

The changes indicated the central bank's promised comprehensive review of the effectiveness of its policies was fruitful, and many of the new policies appeared to address critics' concerns about negative effects of the BOJ's aggressive easing measures.

The BOJ eliminated the maturity range for its Japan government bond purchases and it abandoned its target to increase the monetary base by 80 trillion yen a year, although the central bank said it currently plans to keep buying bonds so that the balance of its holdings increase by that amount.

It kept its deposit rate unchanged at negative 0.1 percent.

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USD/JPY M5: 134 pips price movement by Bank of Japan Policy Rate news event



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