Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for USD/CNH - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.12 08:23

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Chinese Industrial Production and 61 pips price movement

2016-08-12 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Industrial Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

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From RTTNews:

  • "China's economic activity weakened in July as industrial production, retail sales and investment all registered weak growth."
  • "Industrial production grew 6 percent year-on-year in July, slower than the 6.2 percent increase seen in June. The annual growth was expected to remain unchanged at 6.2 percent."
  • "Julian Evans-Pritchard at Capital Economics, said the downbeat investment figures raise questions over the efficacy of the recent policy easing."
  • "Policymakers may have to do more to reverse the recent trend in investment growth, most likely in the form of more forceful fiscal policy during the remainder of this year, if they want to prevent a renewed slide in economic growth, the economist noted."

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USD/CNH M5: 61 pips price movement by Chinese Industrial Production news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.13 13:20

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "The PBOC’s monetary policy is on a much different track. The efficiency of China’s monetary policy has dropped to a new low and therefore, further easing measures will probably not help very much in the economy other than to exacerbate price bubbles. The July monetary supply report shows that the gap between the growth in M1 and M2 has widened to a new all-time high: The growth in M1 increased to 25.4% from 24.1% in the prior month while the growth in M2 dropped to 10.2% from 11.0%. As we discussed last week, a widened gap means that the problem of lacking investment opportunities becomes even worse. Also, new Yuan loans in July dropped more than expected: The print came out to be 463.6 billion Yuan and was 1.01 trillion Yuan less than the same month last year. New Yuan loans issued to corporates surprisingly dropped in July on an annualized basis, which was rarely seen in the past. Moreover, private investment in fixed assets continued to shrink in July: The growth in private investment has dropped to 2.1% from 2.8% in the prior month and is far below the 11.3% level from a year ago. These all add proof to the weakened conditions in the investment environment of Mainland China." 


Daily price was on bullish breakdown: price broke resistance levels to above to be bounced from 6.7166 resistance to be started to be ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 6.6739 resistance level located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA on the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 6.6125 support level located near and above 100 SMA in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.

50-day low at 6.5397 is the bearish daily reversal level: if the price breaks this level to below so the bearish reversal of the daily price movement will be started.

If D1 price breaks 6.6125 support level on close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started with 6.5775 level as a nearest daily target.
If D1 price breaks 6.6739 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing with 6.7166 level as a target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on ranging bullish within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close daily price to break 6.6739 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch daily price to break 6.6125 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bullish
Resistance
Support
6.67396.6125
6.71666.5775
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.20 08:46

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "In the coming week, this wrestling may continue as a primary theme amid a light Chinese calendar. Major event risk will likely come from trading counterparts, including measures for US labor and housing markets for the month of July. Fed Chair Yellen’s speech may bring some volatility to FX markets but is less likely to change the fact that FOMC members are holding divergent views towards imminent rate hikes. The odds of a hike in September is at 24% and 28.9% in November, so relatively low. As our Currency Analyst James Stanley discussed, the marginal utility of rate hike fears is diminishing. Without a high probability of a Fed rate hike, the Dollar/Yuan is less likely to break the pivotal 6.7000-psychological level." 


Daily price is on bullish market condition located above 100 SMA/200 SMA area:

  • price is on ranging within 6.6739 resistance level, and
  • 6.6224 support level.


If the price breaks 6.6739 resistance to above on daily close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed with 6.7166 level as a nearest daily bullish target.
If the price breaks 6.6224 support to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction will be started.
If the price breaks 6.5775 support level to eblow so we may see the reversal of the daily price movement to the bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.24 11:48

USD/CNH Price Action Analysis - rdaily correction to be resumed or the bullish to be re-started (adapted from the article)

Daily price is located above 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA for the primary bullish with secondary ranging between Fibo support level at 6.6125 and Fibo resistance level at 6.7166:

  • "The hold above 6.6500 seems likely to shift focus to intermediate resistance at 6.6860 followed by the 6.7 figure."
  • "A break and hold above those recent highs may be required for bulls to really take control again."
  • "A move to the downside may target the 6.6500 level again, followed by the July lows at 6.6224."


If daily price breaks Fibo support level at 6.6125 to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction will be resumed.
If daily price breaks Fibo resistance level at 6.7166 from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with good possible breakout of the price movement.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

ResistanceSupport
6.67686.6277
6.71666.6125
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 6.6125 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 6.7166 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.28 08:23

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "The current moderate policy could help the Yuan avoid sudden plunges driven by internal forces. Also, the G20 meetings, a top event for China, will start next week on next Wednesday. As we discussed last week, Yuan rates saw low volatility ahead of past G20 meetings; it could be the case this time as well. Next week, the offshore Yuan may continue to consolidate with a range between 6.6500 and 6.7000 with this main theme."



Daily price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bullish area of the chart. The price is on testing 6.6965 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing with 6.7166 level as a nearest bullish target to re-enter. Alternative, if the price breaks 6.6125 support to below so the secondary correction will be started.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.01 10:00

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Manufacturing PMI and 30 pips range price movement

2016-09-01 01:00 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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USD/CNH M5: 30 pips range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.06 16:40

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CNH: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2016-09-06 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

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"The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI® registered 51.4 percent in August, 4.1 percentage points lower than the July reading of 55.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased substantially to 51.8 percent, 7.5 percentage points lower than the July reading of 59.3 percent, reflecting growth for the 85th consecutive month, at a notably slower rate in August. The New Orders Index registered 51.4 percent, 8.9 percentage points lower than the reading of 60.3 percent in July. The Employment Index decreased 0.7 percentage point in August to 50.7 percent from the July reading of 51.4 percent. The Prices Index decreased 0.1 percentage point from the July reading of 51.9 percent to 51.8 percent, indicating prices increased in August for the fifth consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in August."

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USD/CNH M5: 122 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.09 07:28

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China CPI and 83 pips price movement

2016-09-09 01:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNH in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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USD/CNH M5: 83 pips price movement by China CPI news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.13 10:19

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Industrial Production and 24 pips price movement

2016-09-13 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Industrial Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

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From News Dog article:

  • "A trio of data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics vouched for the vibrancy of the world's second largest economy, with industrial production, retail sales and investment growth for August all exceeding economists' expectations."
  • "Industrial production growth improved to 6.3 percent in August from 6 percent in July. This was the fastest expansion since March, when output climbed 6.8 percent. Production was expected to rise 6.2 percent."
  • "Retail sales advanced 10.6 percent annually, faster than the 10.2 percent increase seen in July. This was the biggest growth seen so far this year. Economists had expected the growth to remain at 10.2 percent."
  • "During January to August, fixed asset investment growth held steady at 8.1 percent, while it was forecast to ease to 7.9 percent. The growth of private investment in fixed asset also stayed unchanged at 2.1 percent."
  • "Another report from the Ministry of Finance showed that government spending advanced 10.3 percent in August from prior year."
  • "Better-than-expected data out of China today raises hopes that policymakers' efforts to reverse the slide in investment growth are seeing some success, Julian Evans-Pritchard at Capital Economics, said."

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USD/CNH M5: 24 pips price movement by China Industrial Production news event



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