Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for USD/CAD - page 2

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USD/CAD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - Ahead of Canada Retail Sales

H4 price is on bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud: the price is ranging within narrow support/resistance levels for the bear market rally to be started or for the primary bearish trend to be continuing. Chinkou Span line is located below the price indicating the ranging bearish condition, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition as well in the near future.

Resistance
Support
1.2744
1.2627
1.2831
1.2592

If H4 price will break 1.2627 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing.
If H4 price will break 1.2744 resistance level so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.2744 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.2627 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.22 14:51

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Retail Sales and 60 pips price movement

2016-04-22 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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  • "Retail sales rose for the second consecutive month, advancing 0.4% to $44.2 billion in February. Gains were reported in 9 of 11 subsectors, representing 89% of total retail trade."
  • "The gain in February was tempered by lower sales at gasoline stations. Excluding sales in this subsector, retail sales advanced 1.0%."
  • "After removing the effects of price changes, particularly lower gasoline prices, retail sales in volume terms increased 1.5%."


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USD/CAD M5: 60 pips price movement by Canada Retail Sales news event :



 

USD/CAD ahead of Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2016-04-29 12:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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H4 intra-day price is on bearish market condition located to be below 200 period SMA (200 SMA) and 100 period SMA (100 SMA). The price is testing 1.1514 support level to below for the primary bearish trend to be continuing. Alternatively, if the price breaks 1.2605 resistance level to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started with 1.2857 bullish reversal level - if the price breaks this 1.2857 levels too so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish condition may be started.


USD/CAD M5. This timeframe may be more interesting as we are talking intra-day price movement about high impacted news event (Cadana's GDP) - as we know - the traders are using M5 timeframe to trade news events for example.
As we see from the chart - the price is below 100 SMA/200 SMA area for the bearish condition with the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.2512 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart; if the price breaks this level to below on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing;
  • 1.2537 resistance level located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bullish trend; if the price breaks this level to above so the bullish reversal of the intra-day price movement will be started.

Anyway, the developing patterns (Retracement, AB=CD and 3-Drives) for timeframes started with M30 are estimating the uptrend so we will see about how the situation will be developed today for example:



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.29 14:47

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Gross Domestic Product and 28 pips range price movement

2016-04-29 12:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

  • "After rising for four consecutive months, real gross domestic product edged down 0.1% in February. The output of goods-producing industries declined in February, while the output of service-producing industries was essentially unchanged."
  • "After increasing 0.9% in January, the output of goods-producing industries contracted 0.6% in February primarily as a result of decreases in manufacturing and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Declines were also registered in the agriculture and forestry sector as well as in utilities. Construction edged up."
  • "The output of service-producing industries was essentially unchanged in February, after rising for four consecutive months. A notable decline in wholesale trade was offset by gains in retail trade and, to a lesser extent, the public sector (education, health and public administration combined) and accommodation and food services."

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USD/CAD M5: 28 pips range price movement by Canada Gross Domestic Product news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.30 08:58

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CNH, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)

USD/CAD - "There are three components that have led to a Canadian Dollar surge since the end of January in Oil, US Dollar, and Canadian Economic Data. However, if you would like to boil these factors down to one market to watch, the closing of the gap in 2Y sovereign yields between the United States and Canada is great."



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.04 15:12

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canadian International Merchandise Trade and 76 pips price movement

2016-05-04 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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USD/CAD M5: 76 pips price movement by Canadian International Merchandise Trade news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.14 10:11

Forex Weekly Outlook May 16-20 (the source)

The US dollar had another positive week, enjoying some good data. UK and US inflation data, housing figures and most importantly the FOMC Meeting Minutes stand out. These are the highlights of this week.

  1. UK inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. CPI in the UK is expected to rise by 0.5% in April.
  2. US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. The number of building permits is expected to rise to 1.13 million-unit pace.
  3. US inflation data: Tuesday, 12:30. CPI is forecasted to rise 0.4% while core prices are estimated to climb 0.2% this time.
  4. UK employment data: Wednesday, 8:30. The amount of people receiving jobless benefits is expected to rise by 4,100 in April.
  5. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. The EIA expects Brent to trade at $76 a barrel in the next year on continued increase in demand.
  6. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. These are the meeting minutes from the April decision, in which the Fed left policy unchanged, acknowledged some improvement but did provide any hike hints. The chances for a rate hike in June dropped after that meeting but since then, data has improved. So, this is an opportunity for the Fed to hint about raising rates in June, if this is indeed the case, and it’s quite unclear that this a real option for the doves that control the Fed. It is important to remember that the minutes are edited until the last moment, allowing the Fed to sharpen any message.
  7. Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. Australia’s job market is expected to register 12,300 jobs addition, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.8% this time.
  8. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Friday, 12:30. The ndex is expected to improve to 3.2 in May.
  9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Jobless claims are estimated to reach 276,000 this week.
  10. US Existing Home Sales: Friday, 14:00.

 

USD/CAD Price Action Analysis - intra-day ranging bullish; daily bear market rally; 1.3154 resistance level is the key

H4 intra-day price is located far above 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA for the primary bullish market condition with secondary ranging between Fibo support level at 1.2837 and Fibo resistance level at 1.3154:

  • The bearish reversal level is located near 1.2837 support, and if the price breaks this level to below so the bearish reversal will be started.
  • RSI indicator is estimating the bullish trend to be continuing.
  • Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend.

If the price will break Fibo support level at 1.2837 so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1.3154 from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with good possible breakout of the price movement.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


Resistance
Support
1.31541.2837
N/A
N/A

Trend:

H4 - ranging bullish
D1 - bear market rally
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.20 11:29

Trading News Events: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on the article)

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

Even though the Bank of Canada (BoC) has turned upbeat on the economy in 2016, Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. may opt to retain the accommodative policy stance for an extended period as the central bank continues to highlight the persistent slack in the real economy.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish CAD Trade: Headline & Core Rate of Inflation Exceed Market Forecast

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on USD/CAD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish loonie trade, sell USD/CAD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish CAD Trade: Canada CPI Report Disappoints
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long USD/CAD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish Canadian dollar trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
USD/CAD Daily



  • May see the long-term bull trend in USD/CAD reassert itself as the pair breaks out of the bearish formation from earlier this year, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) following suit.
  • Key Resistance: 1.3560 (100% expansion) to 1.3630 (38.2% retracement)
  • Key Support: 1.2510 (78.6% retracement) to 1.2520 (38.2% expansion)

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.20 14:48

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Consumer Price Index and 20 pips price movement

2016-05-20 12:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

  • "The Consumer Price Index rose 1.7% in the 12 months to April, after increasing 1.3% in March."
  • "Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.0% year over year in April, following a 1.9% increase in March."
  • "Energy prices declined 3.2% in the 12 months to April, following a 7.8% decrease in March. This smaller year-over-year decline was mainly attributable to a moderation in the year-over-year decrease in gasoline prices, down 5.8% in April, following a 13.6% decline the previous month."
  • "Smaller year-over-year decreases were also recorded in the natural gas index and the fuel oil index in April compared with March. Natural gas prices were down 12.8% in the 12 months to April, following a 17.4% decline in March, while fuel oil prices fell 19.3% in April, following a 25.8% decrease the previous month."

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USD/CAD M5: 20 pips price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news event  



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