Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for GBP/USD - page 4

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.08 10:48

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Manufacturing Production and 37 pips price movement

2016-06-08 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.

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"Total production output is estimated to have increased by 2.0% in April 2016 compared with March 2016. There were increases in 3 of the 4 main sectors, with the largest contribution coming from manufacturing, which increased by 2.3%, the largest rise since July 2012."

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GBP/USD M5: 37 pips price movement by U.K. Manufacturing Production news event


H4 price is on ranging near 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area waiting for the direction of the trend.

If the price breaks 1.4658 resistance to above on close H4 bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 1.4724 level as a nearest possible target.
If H4 price breaks 1.4434 support level to below on close bar so the primary bearish market condition will be continuing with 1.4351 possible bearish target to re-enter.
If not so intra-day price will be on ranging for direction.
Resistance
Support
1.46581.4434
1.47241.4351

  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.4434 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4658 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: waiting for direction

SUMMARY : ranging inside reversal area

TREND : waiting to breaks the levels for the direction of the trend
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.09 10:57

GBP/USD Fundamentals: U.K. Goods Trade Balance and 12 pips price movement

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2016-06-09 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Goods Trade Balance]

  • past data is -10.6B
  • forecast data is -11.0B
  • actual data is -10.5B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Goods Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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"The deficit on trade in goods was £10.5 billion in April 2016; narrowing by £0.1 billion from March 2016. This narrowing reflected an increase in exports (up £2.2 billion to £26.1 billion) and an increase in imports (up £2.0 billion to £36.6 billion)."

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GBP/USD M5: 12 pips price movement by Goods Trade Balance news event


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GBP/USD Daily Technicals: ranging within 2-week high/low levels for direction

Daily price is on ranging between 100 SMA and 200 SMA reversal area waiting for direction within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 2-week high at 1.4739 located near 200 period SMA on the border between the ranging bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart, and
  • 2-week low at 1.4351 located near 100 SMA on the border between the ranging bearish and the primary bearish trend.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the bearish condition to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 1.4739 resistance level so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If price will break 1.4351 support so the bearish trend will be continuing witholut secondary ranging up to the new 'bottom' to be formed.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.46581.4351
1.4739N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch close daily price to break 1.4351 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close daily price to break 1.4739 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
SUMMARY : ranging for direction

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.11 10:11

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, NZD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH, USD/JPY, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "What happens to the Sterling if the UK votes for “Brexit”? The short answer seems obvious—the GBP will fall. By how much? This question is substantially more complicated, but current FX Options prices suggest anywhere between 4-7 percent in one fell swoop. The ensuing uncertainty would almost certainly produce shockwaves beyond Britain’s shores and onto broader global financial markets, and modeling every possibility seems nearly impossible."




GBPUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 12.06 - 19.06: daily bearish breakdown to be started

Daily price is breaking 1.4351 support level together with 100 SMA for the primary bearish market condition to be resumed. descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken to below for the bearish trend to be continuing with 1.4089 as a nearest bearish target. Alternative, if the price crosses 1.4769 resistance to above so the bullish reversal will be started, otherwise - ranging within 100 SMA/200 SMA levels for the waiting for direction.

  • If the price will break 1.4769 resistance level so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If price will break 1.4351 support on close daily bar so the bearish trend will be continuing with 1.4089 level as a possible bearish target.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.47691.4089
N/A
1.3854


  • Recommendation to go short: watch close daily price to break 1.4351 support level to below for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4769 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish

SUMMARY : breakdown

TREND : bearish
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.14 08:45

Trading News Events: U.K. Consumer Price Index (adapted from the article)
  • "A pickup in the headline & core U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may spark a near-term rebound in GBP/USD as it puts pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later."
  • "Even though the economic outlook remains clouded by the U.K. Referendum on June 23, signs of heightening price pressures may encourage the BoE to adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy as Governor Mark Carney and Co. see a risk of overshooting the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon."
What’s Expected:



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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: daily bearish breakdown, intra-day ranging bearish


GBPUSD D1: bearish breakdown. The daily price is on bearish market condition: price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for good breakdown with 1.4130 support level. Absolute Strength indicator and Trend Strength indicator are estimating the bearish trend to be continuing.

If the price breaks 1.4130 support to below on close D1 bar so the bearish breakdown will be continuing.
If the price breaks Senkou Span line at 1.4480 to above so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging bearish within the levels.

GBPUSD H4: bearish ranging within narrow levels. The price is on bearish condition for the ranging within narrow support/resistance levels: 1.4130 support and 1.4327 resistance.


If the price breaks 1.4130 support to below on close H4 bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 1.4327 resistance to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging bearish within the levels.

GBP/USD M5: 36 pips range price movement by U.K. CPI news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.15 11:58

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Jobless Claims and 34 pips price movement

2016-06-15 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Claimant Count Change]

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Claimant Count Change] = Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

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  • "The unemployment rate was 5.0%, the lowest since August to October 2005. The unemployment rate is the proportion of the labour force (those in work plus those unemployed) that were unemployed."
  • "Average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.0% including bonuses and by 2.3% excluding bonuses compared with a year earlier."

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GBP/USD M5: 34 pips price movement by U.K. Jobless Claims news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.16 14:20

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Official Rate and 26 pips price movement

2016-06-16 11:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.

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"The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.  At its meeting ending on 15 June 2016 the MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%.  The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion."

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GBP/USD M5: 26 pips price movement by BoE Official Rate news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.23 09:08

U.K. Brexit Referendum: Polls Open (based on the article)

  • "In a vote to leave, GBP would come under significant pressure, while risk currencies (CHF and JPY) benefit. Potential policy responses limit the degree of strength. We expect the effects on EUR/USD to be relatively muted."
  • "The payout for Bonds is asymmetric. In a vote to remain, yields would rise but not significantly, and mostly in the Euro-area core. Upon “Leave”, the path of least resistance is for yields to drop substantially, especially in the UK & the US."
  • "The bond yield/policy cushion, combined with the healthy distance from the macro shock, implies less downside for the S&P than for the FTSE or Eurostoxx upon "Leave". Upon "Remain", the S&P could plausibly make fresh highs."
  • "Euro-area periphery yields and corporate credit spreads have significant room to widen in a decision to leave, although temporarily perhaps before a policy response is triggered. The upside is capped in an event to "stay".
  • "Risk sentiment swings may affect emerging market assets, but much less so relative to Euro-area and UK assets, given the cushion from lower US yields."
  • "Lastly, we anticipate limited pass-through to Oil prices. The broad decline in US real rates creates more upside than downside in Gold prices."

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EUR/USD M5: 17 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum: Polls Open news event


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GBP/USD M5: 67 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum: Polls Open news event



 

FTSE 100 and GBP/USD - breakout with daily bullish reversal

FTSE 100 index and GBP/USD pair is on bullish breakout: the prices broke 200 SMA to be reversed from the bearish to the primary bullish market condition.



  • FTSE 100 is testing 6312 resistance for 50-day high at 6380 as a next bullish target.
  • GBP/USD is crossing 90-day high at 1.4843 to above on open D1 bar for now for the bullish breakout to be continuing.
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.24 08:45

U.K. Voters Back 'Brexit,' Will Leave European Union (based on the article)

  • "The U.K. is poised to leave the European Union after a historic referendum, vote tallies showed early Friday, setting the stage for an unprecedented and messy untangling with far-reaching implications."
  • "As of 6:05 a.m. local time Friday (1:05 a.m. ET), NBC's British partner ITV News put "Leave" at 51.8 percent with "Remain" garnering 48.2 percent, with the "Leave" campaign racking up the necessary 16.8 million votes to win."
  • "The results in favor of an exit — or "Brexit" — sent shockwaves through global markets. The pound plunged to $1.35, it's lowest level since 1985."

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EUR/USD : 465 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum Final Results Expectation


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GBP/USD : 1,639 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum Final Results Expectation



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