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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.19 08:26
Technical Intra-Day Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
GBP/USD: bullish breakout with 1.4347 as the target to be continuing
H4 price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area to above by good breakout: the price is testing 1.4347 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise the price will be ranging within 1.4347 bullish resistance level and 1.4040 bearish support level. By the way, UOB is evaluating the trend for this pair as a neutral with 1.4000/1.4350 range:
"Improving short-term momentum suggests that a test of the top-end of our expected 1.4000/1.4350 range will not be surprising. However, the overall outlook is mixed and even a break above 1.4350 is not expected to move significantly above the late March high of 1.4455/60."
RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.19 17:48
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Governor Mark Carney speech and 24 pips price movement
2016-04-19 14:35 GMT | [GBP - BoE Gov Carney Speaks]
[GBP - BoE Gov Carney Speaks] = The speech before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee, in London.
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GBP/USD M5: 24 pips price movement by BoE Governor Mark Carney speech news event :
The price broke 1.4347 resistance to above for good bullish breakout with +50 pips in profit for now:
Anyway, if we see from intra-day price movement for GBP/USD H4 for example so the bullish breakout is continuing with new target for now: 1.4418. It means the following: if the price breaks this level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.
If we look at the daily price (GBP/USD D1) so this resistance level at 1.4418 is not significant one. WHy? because as we see from the chart below - this is bullish reversal breakout is going on for now on open daily bar:
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.20 09:16
Trading News Events: U.K. Jobless Claims Change (based on the article)
What’s Expected:
Even though the Bank of England (BoE) remains upbeat on the U.K. economy, signs of weak wage growth may encourage Governor Mark Carney to retain the record-low interest rate throughout 2016 as the central bank struggles to achieve its 2% target for inflation.
Nevertheless, the slowdown in global growth paired with easing outputs may drag on the labor market, and a dismal employment report may drag on the exchange rate as market participants push out bets for a BoE rate-hike.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Job/Wage Growth Beat Market Expectations
- Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long GBP/USD trade.
- If market reaction favors buying sterling, long GBP/USD with two separate position.
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.
Bearish GBP Trade: Jobless Claims, Average Hourly Earnings Disappoint- Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade.
- Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseGBPUSD Daily
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.20 10:49
GBP/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by U.K. Jobless Claims Change news event :
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.21 08:16
Trading the News: U.K. Retail Sales (based on the article)
What’s Expected:
Even though BoE warns that the next policy move will be to normalize monetary policy, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may stick to the sidelines ahead of the U.K. Referendum in June, and the central bank may look to carry its accommodative policy stance into 2017 amid the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook.
However, sticky wage growth paired with hopes for a stronger recovery may boost private-sector consumption, and a rebound in retail spending may put increased pressure on the BoE to normalize policy sooner rather than later as Governor Mark Carney sees a risk of overshooting the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish GBP Trade: Retail Sales Falls Another 0.3% or Greater
- Need red, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a short British Pound trade.
- If market reaction favors bearish sterling trade, short GBP/USD with two separate position.
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.
Bullish GBP Trade: Household Spending Tops Market Forecast- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD trade.
- Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseGBPUSD Daily
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.21 10:43
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Retail Sales and 10 pips price movement
2016-04-21 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.
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GBP/USD M5: 10 pips price movement by U.K. Retail Sales news event :
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.27 11:17
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Gross Domestic Product and 30 pips price movement
2016-04-27 08:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
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GBP/USD M5: 30 pips price movement by U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event :
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.03 10:42
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Manufacturing PMI and 33 pips price movement
2016-05-03 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
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GBP/USD M5: 33 pips price movement by U.K. Manufacturing PMI news event :
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.08 08:46
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CNH, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)
GBP/USD - "The big question for the rate decision is whether or not we see a break from the bank’s unanimity in April when the MPC voted 9-0 in favor of holding rates at .5%. Should we see a dissenting vote in favor of cutting rates, we could see some Sterling weakness, although even that may be mitigated given how quickly matters may change in the next six weeks."