Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for USD/JPY

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Daily price is on bearish breakdown: the price broke 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) from above to below to be reversed from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition. The price is breaking Fibo support level at 120.33 to below on daily bar for the bearish breakdown to be continuing with Fibo support at 118.34 as the next bearish target.

There are the following key bullish reversal resistance levels for daily chart:

  • Fibo resistance level at 121.90 located near and above 200 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the border between bearish/bullish market condition on the chart, and
  • Fibo resistance level at 123.55 located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bullish area.

RSI indicator is estimating the bearish breakdown to be continuing.

Resistance
Support
121.90120.33
123.55
118.34
  • Short-Term Forecast: if the price breaks 120.33 support level to below on close daily bar so the daily bearish breakdown will be continuing with 118.34 as the bearish target in this case, otherwise - the price will be ranging within above mentioned levels.
  • Most Likely Short-Term Scenario: bearish breakdown with 118.34 as a target.


Weekly price is on bullish market condition located above 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and above 200 period SMA (200 SMA). The price is ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • Fibo resistance at 123.75 located between the ranging bullish and the primary bullish trend on the weekly chart, and
  • Fibo support level at 116.13 located near and above 100 SMA/200 SMA and near the border between the primary bullish and the ranging bearish trend on the chart.

The weekly price came to be very close to break 50.0% Fibo support level at 119.93 to below with 116.13 as the next target.

Resistance
Support
123.75119.93
125.85
116.13
  • Medium-Term Forecast: if the price breaks 50.0% Fibo support level at 119.93 on close weekly daily bar so the secondary correction will be started with 116.13 level as a target for re-enter, and if the price breaks 116.13 level to below so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the ranging bearish market condition; otherwise - the price will be ranging on the bullish market condition within the levels.
  • Most Likely Medium-Term Scenario: 119.93 level to be broken for the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition and with 116.13 bearish reversal target.


Monthly price is on bullish condition for the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • Fibo resistance level at 125.85 located above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 50.0% Fibo support level at 100.82 located between 100 SMA/200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for 100.82 level as the target, and RSI indicator is estomating the local downtrend as the secondary correction to be be started in the near future.

Resistance
Support
125.85100.82
N/A
94.68
  • Long-Term Forecast: if 116.13 bearish pattern support is broken to below so the next real target will be 50.0% Fibo support level at 100.82, and if this 100.82 level is broken from above to below so the price will be started to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition with 94.68 as the target. The bullish scenario: the price breaks Fibo resistance level at 125.85 to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.
  • Most Likely Long-Term Scenario: secondary correction will be started by the price to be breaking 116.13 level with 100.82 level as the bearish reversal target.


 

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals - Retail Sales and 32 pips price movement

2015-12-27 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level

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USDJPY M5: 32 pips price movement by JPY - Retail Sales news event :


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.03 13:06

USDJPY Price Forecast Q1 2016 (based on the article)


  • "With the Federal Reserve removing the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) in 2015, the normalization cycle in the U.S. accompanied by the quantitative/qualitative easing (QQE) program in Japan may fuel a bullish outlook for USD/JPY amid the deviating paths for monetary policy."
  • "The current course for monetary policy in the U.S. and Japan may produce a further advance in USD/JPY over the coming months, and the pair may continue to retrace the decline from back in 2002 as the Fed gears up to remove the emergency measures throughout the year ahead. However, a more delayed normalization cycle in the U.S. paired with a material shift in the BoJ’s stance may produce range-bound conditions during the first three-months of 2016 as market participants gauge the prospects for future policy."
  • "Trading wise, price action since December 2014 would complete a head and shoulders top on a drop below 115.57 and yield a target zone of 105.30-106.50. The target zone would be ‘in line’ with Elliott wave guidelines that suggest a corrective process terminates near the former 4th wave of one less degree (that zone is 101.07-105.44)."

In summary, 'long term technical observations reveal a potential inflection point in the USD/JPY exchange rate. Trading behavior in 2016 may look quite different from what traders have seen over the last 4 years.'


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.13 14:58

Intra-Day Fundamentals - China CGAC Trade Balance and 67 pips price movement for majors

2016-01-13 02:00 GMT | [CNY - CGAC Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CGAC Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month. Export demand/currency demand are directly linked with each other: foreigners buy the domestic currency to pay for the exports.

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EURUSD M5: 14 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :


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GBPUSD M5: 11 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :


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USDJPY M5: 31 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :


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USDCHF M5: 11 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.14 10:13

USDJPY Technical Analysis 2016, January 14: ranging bearish (adapted from the article)

D1 price is on primary bearish market condition:

  • The price is located to be below Ichimoku cloud/kumo and Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bullish and the primary bearish on the daily chart) for the bearish market condition.
  • Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line of Ichimoku indicator which is indicating the primary bearish condition to be continuing.
  • Chinkou Span line is below the price for the ranging bearish condition.
  • "USDJPY weekly chart shows a bearish cloud cross. One of the important bearish signals we discussed in our 13 December report, Technical Advantage: USD/JPY shows signs of weakness, was the pending cross of the Ichimoku cloud. The cross occurred, and the cloud is officially in a bearish position. This happened with RSI breaking support and showing a bearish momentum."
  • "USDJPY may trade down to the 100wk moving average and the bottom of the rising cloud at about 114-115.50. Given the triangle top, a measured move suggests 112 is even a possibility. A rise to the 50wk average and top of the cloud at about 120.75 would be a great place to go short, in our view."
  • Nearest support levels are 117.22 and 116.13.
  • Nearest resistance levels are 118.83 and 123.75.


If the price will break 117.22 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing with 116.13 target to re-enter.
If the price will break 118.83 resistance level so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If the price will break 123.75 resistance level so the price will be fully reversed to the bullish market condition with good breakout possibility.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
  • Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 118.83 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch price to break 117.22 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish
Resistance
Support
118.83117.22
123.75
116.13

SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : breakdown of support levels


 

USDJPY Technical Analysis 2016, 17.01 - 24.01: daily bearish breakdown to be continuing

Daily price was on the bearish breakdown: price crossed key support levels together with 100 day SMA/200 day SMA, and it was stopped by 116.13 support level to be started with the ranging within 116.13/119.16 ranging area.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition to be continuing in the near future.

If D1 price will break 116.13 support level on close bar so the bearish breakdown to be continuing.
If D1 price will break 119.16 resistance level on close bar so we may see the local uptrend as the bear market rally within the primary bearish condition.
If D1 price will break 123.66 resistance level on close bar so the price will be reversed to the primary bullish trend.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 119.16 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 116.13 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: correction to bearish reversal
Resistance
Support
119.16116.13
123.66
N/A



SUMMARY : bearish breakdown

TREND : daily bearish
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.19 08:51

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Gross Domestic Product and 27 pips range price movement

2016-01-19 02:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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USDJPY M5: 27 pips range price movement by CNY - GDP news event :



 

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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.19 16:48

Forecast for Tomorrow: intra-day levels for USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY

USD/CAD: ranging bullish. This pair is ranging to be above Ichimoku cloud within key support/resistance levels to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing or for possible bearish reversal to be started.

  • if the price breaks 1.5605 resistance so the primary bullish market condition will be continuing;
  • if the price breaks 1.4431 support level on close H4 bar so the local uptrend as the secondary correction will be started within the primary bullish market condition;
  • if the price breaks 1.4218 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with the secondary ranging: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud in this case);
  • if not so the price will be moved within the channel.


Resistance
Support
1.56051.4431
N/A
1.4218

EUR/USD: ranging for direction. The price for the pair is located above and near Ichimoku cloud for the bullish market condition ranging on the border between the bearish/bullish reversal area waiting for the direction of the trend.

  • if the price breaks 1.0984 resistance so the bullish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging condition;
  • if the price breaks 1.0804 support level on close H4 bar so reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish condition will be started up to 1.0770 re-enter target;
  • if not so the price will be ranging between the levels.


Resistance
Support
1.09841.0804
N/A
1.0770

USD/JPY: waiting for big news to start big movement. Intra-day H4 price is located inside Ichimoku cloud and near 'reversal' Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart) and with the symmetric triangle pattern which was broken by the price to above for the possible bullish trend to be started.The price is ranging within 118.10/117.00 as intermediate s/r levels and within 118.83/116.50 as the key s/r levels.

  • if the price breaks 118.10 resistance so the primary bullish trend will be continuing up to 118.83 as the next target to re-enter;
  • if the price breaks 117.00 support level so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the levels.


Resistance
Support
118.10117.00
118.83116.50

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.25 09:39

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Trade Balance and 26 pips price movement

2016-01-24 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

USDJPY M5: 26 pips price movement by JPY - Trade Balance news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.27 20:32

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Federal Funds Rate and 35 pips price movement

2016-01-27 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 0.50%
  • forecast data is 0.50%
  • actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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"Committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook."

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USDJPY M5: 35 pips price movement by Federal Funds Rate news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.29 07:30

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: BOJ Monetary Policy Statement and 252 pips price movement

2016-01-29 03:38 GMT | [JPY - BOJ Monetary Policy Statement]

[JPY - BOJ Monetary Policy Statement] = It's among the primary tools the BOJ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on asset purchases and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

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1. The  Introduction  of  "Quantitative  and  Qualitative  Monetary  Easing (QQE) with  a  Negative Interest Rate"
  • The Bank will apply a negative interest rate of minus 0.1 percent to current accounts that financial institutions hold at the Bank. It will cut the interest rate further into negative territory if judged as necessary.
  • The Bank will introduce a multiple-tier system which some central banks in Europe (e.g. the  Swiss  National  Bank)  have  put  in  place. Specifically, it will adopt  a  three-tier system in which the outstanding balance of each financial institution's current account at the Bank will be divided into three tiers, to each of which a positive interest rate, a zero interest rate, or a negative interest rate will be applied, respectively.
2. "QQE  with  a Negative Interest  Rate" is  designed  to  enable  the  Bank  to pursue additional monetary  easing  interms  of three dimensions,combining a  negative  interest  rate  with quantity and quality.
  • The  Bank  will  lower  the  short  end  of  the  yield  curve  and  will  exert  further  downward pressure  on  interest  rates  across  the  entire  yield  curve through  a  combination  of a negative interest rate and large-scale purchases of JGBs.
  • The Bank will achieve the price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time by making full use of possible measures in terms of the three dimensions.

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USDJPY M5: 252 pips price movement by BOJ Monetary Policy Statement news event :



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