Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 15

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.19 07:26

Weekly Outlook: 2016, March 20 - 27 (based on the article)

German Ifo Business Climate and Economic Sentiment, Inflation data from the UK, US durable goods orders, Unemployment claims and GDP data. These are the main events on forex calendar.

  1. Eurozone German Ifo Business Climate: Tuesday, 9:00. German manufacturers’ sentiment declined in February to 105.7 from 107.3 posted in the previous month. The fall projects the effects of the slowdown in emerging countries on the German economy.
  2. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 9:30. Inflation soared up to its highest rate for a year in January amid rises in the price of alcohol and clothing. Consumer prices edged up 0.3% from 0.2% in December, in line with market forecast. However, despite the rise, the Bank of England expects inflation to remain subdued below the government’s 2% target. Weak oil prices limit inflation pressures, leaving the UK central bank in no hurry to raise rates above 0.5%.
  3. Eurozone German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. German Investor sentiment took a nosedive in February, reaching the lowest level since October 2014, amid global slowdown and growing uncertainty around the continuous fall of oil prices. ZEW economic institute German investor confidence posted 1.0 points following 10.2 in the previous month. Economists expected an even worse reading of 0.1.
  4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. U.S. crude oil stocks increased last week to record highs for a fifth continuous week as gasoline inventories declined amid strong demand. Inventories increased 1.3 million barrels considerably lower than the 3.4 million-barrel increase expected by analysts.
  5. US Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 12:30. U.S. orders for long-lasting goods leaped 4.9% in January posting the biggest gain in 10 months, despite softer business investment. The reading followed a revised 4.6% contraction in the prior month. Economists believe the rise is not a temporary incident but an ongoing trend. Analysts expected a smaller rise of 3.0%.
  6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filling initial applications for unemployment benefits increased by 7,000 to 265,000 last week. The reading was broadly in line with market forecast. This week’s release posts the 54th straight week where claims are below 300,000, indicating a robust employment market.
  7. US GDP data: Friday, 12:30. The US economy expanded at a slower pace than initially forecasted in the third quarter of 2015 rising 2.0%. The Fed does not expect much improvement in 2016, estimating growth of 2.1% to 2.4%.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.19 09:30

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and GOLD (based on the article)

US Dollar - "The S&P 500 and other risk-oriented markets have extended a multi-week climb; but the fundamental backdrop to support the move is more than porous. Abrupt market moves are more likely to align to risk aversion; and the Greenback is likely to revert to a more responsive haven status. Risk or data moves this week however will be tempered somewhat by holiday trading conditions as March 25 is Good Friday for many markets."


EUR/USD - "Next week is devoid of high-importance news events out of Europe, but there are numerous medium and low-importance announcements on the docket. The highlights are German data on Tuesday, both the IFO and the German Zew Survey, while Wednesday brings consumer confidence numbers and Thursday brings PMI’s for the Euro-Zone, France and Germany. Each of these could be market moving, but given that much of this data was compiled before the announcement of Mr. Draghi, expect down-side prints to be somewhat muted while top-side data gets accentuated by markets."


GBP/USD - "In turn, a slew of positive U.K. data prints accompanied by waning U.S. interest-rate expectations may fuel a further short-squeeze in GBP/USD as there appears to be a shift in market positioning."


AUD/USD - "The correlation between the currency and the S&P 500 stock index – a benchmark for market-wide risk trends – remains elevated at 0.92 on rolling 20-day studies. Alternatively, upbeat outcomes may yield the opposite dynamic."


NZD/USD - "Considering the upcoming data, NZD/USD may continue to advance into the December high (0.6882), and the key developments coming out of New Zealand’s construction, retail spending and business services could make up for the drop in Dairy exports. If the New Zealand economy remains stable at the same time that the U.S. Dollar goes without a bid, we could soon move closer to 0.7000."


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "From a technical standpoint, gold is trading at some tricky levels as the pair struggles to solidify a break above a parallel extending off the 2015 October high as momentum continues to hold below the 70-threshold. The risk remains for a pullback in price with interim support eyed at 1246/50 backed by soft support at 1225 & our bullish invalidation level at 1194. We’ll be looking for move lower towards these levels to offer favorable long-entries with a breach of the highs targeting the 2015 high-week close backed at 1294 closely by the 2015 high-day close at 1301. Subsequent topside targets are eyed at the 2014 high week reversal close at 1293."


 

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 20.03 - 27.03: ranging within key bullish resistance and key bearish reversal support levels

Daily price is located to be above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition: price was bounced from 1.1376 resistance level for the secondary ranging to be started within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1376 key resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area, and
  • 1.1057 key support level located inside Ichimoku cloud on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend.

Chinkou Span line is indicating the ranging condition, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the bullish trend, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the ranging bullish market condition to be continuing in the near future.

If D1 price will break 1.1057 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 1.1376 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1376 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1057 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bullish
Resistance
Support
1.13421.1057
1.1376
1.0821


SUMMARY : ranging bullish

TREND : bullish
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.22 20:55

Technical Setups for EUR/USD by Barclays (based on the article)

EUR/USD: daily correction to possible bearish reversal

Daily price is located above 200-day SMA for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary correction: the price is on local downtrend within the primary bullish with 1.1145 as the nearest target and 1.1057 as the key bearish reversal target.

  • "Yesterday’s low close was on below average volume, but price action points lower in range in the short term.
  • We are looking for a move towards targets near 1.1145 and then the 1.1055 area."

RSI indicator is estimating the secondary correction to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.1342 resistance level on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.1055 support on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on correctional ranging movement within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.13421.1145
N/A1.1055


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1055 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1342 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: correction

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.24 11:20

Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (based on the article)

A 3.0% contraction in orders for U.S. Durable Goods may hamper the near-term advance in the greenback and spur a rebound in EUR/USD should the data print undermine Fed expectations for a ‘consumer-led’ recovery in 2016.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

A slowdown in private-sector consumption, one of the leading drivers of growth and inflation, may push the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further delay the normalization cycle as the weakening outlook for the global economy derails hopes for a stronger recovery.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish USD Trade: Demand for Large-Ticket Items Decline 3.0% or Greater
  • Need to see green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long trade on EURUSD.
  • If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Durable Goods Orders Exceed Market Forecast
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily


  • EUR/USD may have marked a failed run at the 2016 high (1.1375) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to retain the bullish formation carried over from the previous month, but the pair may continue to consolidate with the broad range from 2015 as market participants continue to mull the timing of the next Fed rate-hike.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (50% retracement) to 1.1520 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.24 13:58

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Durable Goods Orders and 10 pips range price movement

2016-03-24 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 4.7%
  • forecast data is -3.0%
  • actual data is -2.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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EURUSD M5: 10 pips range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.25 08:43

EUR/USD - Long-Term Forecast: more bearish in a long-term for 0.95 target at year-end

Morgan Stanley made a long-term forecast concerbning the price movement for EUR.USD pair related to the end of this year:

  • "MS targets EUR/USD at 1.06, 1.03, and 1.0 by the end of Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively."

So, let's describe some of the interesting moments for EURUSD.

------------------

EURUSD

W1 price is on primary bearish market condition located to be below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA area with the secondary ranging within 1.1713 key bullish reversal resistance level and 1.0516 key bearish support level.

  • if the price breaks 1.1713 resistance on close weekly bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started;
  • if the price breaks 1.0516 support level so the bearish trend will be continuing up to S1 Yearly Pivot at 1.02 and S2 Yearly Pivot at 0.95 as the next bearish targets;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the channel.


Resistance
 Support
1.13761.0516
1.17131.0221

Most likely scenario:

  • a short term situation (by the end of Q2): the price will be on bearish ranging within 1.13/1.14 resistance and 1.07/1.05 support;
  • a medium term situation (by the end of Q3): support level at 1.0516 may be considered as the real bearish target;
  • a long term situation (by the end of Q4): the price will break 1.0516 and 1.02 levels to below for S2 Yearly Pivot target at 0.95.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.25 09:29

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: French Gross Domestic Product and 8 pips price movement

2016-03-25 07:45 GMT | [EUR - French GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - French GDP] = The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of a France's overall production and consumption of goods and services.

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  • "In Q4 2015, GDP in volume terms increased by 0.3%. On average over the year, growth accelerated: +1.2% in 2015 after +0.2% in 2014.
  • Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) accelerated in Q4 (+0.7% after +0.1%) mostly driven up by non-financial corporations and general government. Household final consumption expenditure fell back (-0.1% after +0.4% in Q3 2015). All in all, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes decelerated slightly and contributed +0.2 points to GDP growth (after +0.3 points in previous quarter).
  • Exports rebounded (+1.1% after -0.2%) and imports accelerated (+2.4% after +1.8%). In fine, the foreign trade balance contributed negatively to activity (-0.4 points after -0.6 points in Q3). On the contrary, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.6 points, after +0.7 points)."

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EURUSD M5: 8 pips price movement by French Gross Domestic Product news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.25 14:18

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Gross Domestic Product and 10 pips range price movement

2016-03-25 12:30 GMT | [USD - Final GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Final GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

"Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent."

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EURUSD M5: 10 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.26 10:59

EUR/USD: Stuck In Range; Focus On Next Week's NFP - The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (based on the article)

  • USD - "Next week’s business activity and payrolls data should keep Fed rate expectations and the USD supported."
  • EUR - "We do not expect incoming inflation data to have any meaningful impact on rate expectations and the EUR."
  • CAD - "Growth data is unlikely to trigger bigger changes to rate expectations and the CAD. We expect oil price developments to remain key."
  • CHF - "The franc should be driven still by external factors such as risk sentiment rather than domestic data like the KOF leading indicator. However, low safe haven appeal may keep it an underperformer against the JPY."


EUR/USD: correction to bearish reversal. Daily price is on the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition: the price is located near and above Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. If the price breaks 1.1143 key support level on the daily close bar so the bearish reversal will be started with the secondary ranging: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud. If the price breaks 1.1342 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing. Chinkou Span line is located near and above the price to be ready to break it to below for the good possible bearish breakdown.


There are the following news events which will be affected on EUR/USD price movement for the week:

  • 2016-03-28 12:30 GMT | [USD - Core PCE Price Index]
  • 2016-03-29 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]
  • 2016-03-29 15:30 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks]
  • 2016-03-30 12:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
  • 2016-04-01 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
  • 2016-04-01 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
Resistance
Support
1.13421.1143
1.1376
1.0821

1...8910111213141516
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