Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 11

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 28.02 - 06.03: the secondary correction with the possible bearish reversal

Daily price is on primary bullish market condition with the secondary correction to be started in the middle of February this year: the price broke key support level for the local downtrend and stopped near Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

Chinkou Span line is located above the price to be ready to crossed to from above for the good possible breakdown, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the price movement as the secondary correction with possible bearish reversal.

If D1 price will break 1.0777 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 1.1192 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1192 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.0777 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: correction
Resistance
Support
1.11921.0777
1.1376
1.0707


SUMMARY : correction

TREND : correction to the bearish reversal
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.29 09:45

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: Turn to Bearish

Daily price was moved to be below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for the porimary bearish market condition: the price was bounced from 1.0911 support level with symmetric triangle pattern to be formed for direction.

  • "The neutral phase that has been in place for about 2 weeks ended last Friday. As highlighted in recent updates, a daily closing below the key 1.0990 would indicate the start of a sustained down-move in EUR."
  • "That said, downward momentum is not very strong at this stage and we have a modest target of 1.0810. In order to maintain the current momentum, any rebound should not move above 1.1030."

RSI indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.1178 resistance level on close D1 bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0911 support on close daily bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.11781.0911
1.13761.0788


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0911 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1178 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.29 11:23

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Euro-Zone CPI Flash Estimate and 18 pips price movement

2016-02-29 10:00 GMT | [EUR - CPI Flash Estimate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - CPI Flash Estimate] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

"Euro area annual inflation is expected to be -0.2% in February 2016, down from 0.3% in January, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union."

==========

EURUSD M5: 18 pips price movement by Euro-Zone CPI Flash Estimate news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.29 16:28

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Pending Home Sales and 23 pips price movement

2016-02-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - Pending Home Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Pending Home Sales] = Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction.

==========

"The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 2.5 percent to 106.0 in January from an upwardly revised 108.7 in December but is still 1.4 percent above January 2015 (104.5). Although the index has increased year-over-year for 17 consecutive months, last month’s annual gain was the second smallest (September 2014 at 1.2 percent) during the timeframe."

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says a myriad of reasons likely contributed to January contract signings subsiding in most of the country. "While January’s blizzard possibly caused some of the pullback in the Northeast, the recent acceleration in home prices and minimal inventory throughout the country appears to be the primary obstacle holding back would-be buyers,” he said. “Additionally, some buyers could be waiting for a hike in listings come springtime."

==========

EURUSD M5: 23 pips price movement by Pending Home Sales news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.01 07:59

Technical Intra-Day Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: Bearish to 1.0800 psy target

Intra-day price was moved to be below 100 SMA/200 SMA area for the primary bearish market condition: the price was bounced from 1.0858 support level for the ranging bearish condition to be started.

  • "We just turned bearish EUR yesterday and there is no change to the view. As mentioned, we have a modest target of 1.0810 with a stop-loss at 1.1030 even though 1.0965 is already a strong resistance."
  • "Overall, only a move back above 1.0935 would indicate that a temporary low is in place."

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.1149 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0858 support level so the bearish trend will be continuing with 1.0800 psy level as the target.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.11491.0858
N/A1.0800


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0858 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1149 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.03 08:44

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: Bearish Ranging.

  • "EUR moved to a low of 1.0823 before rebounding to close almost unchanged for the day. Indicators continue to show sign of basing but any recovery is unlikely to move significantly above 1.0920."
  • "The overnight low of 1.0823 did not reach our partial profittaking level of 1.0810. While only a break above 1.0965 would indicate that the current bearish phase has ended, downward momentum is struggling and at this stage, a sustained down-move below 1.0810 appears unlikely."


The intra-day price (H4) broke 200 period SMA/100 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition. The price is started to be ranging within 1.0825 support level and 1.0880 resistance level.

  • If the price breaks 1.0825 support on close H4 bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If the price breaks 1.0880 resistance level on close H4 bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally will be started within the primary bearish condition up to 1.1067 bullish reversal target.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging bearish condition.

 

The intra-day price (H4) broke 200 period SMA/100 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition. The price is started to be ranging within 1.0825 support level and 1.0880 resistance level.

  • If the price breaks 1.0825 support on close H4 bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If the price breaks 1.0880 resistance level on close H4 bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally will be started within the primary bearish condition up to 1.1067 bullish reversal target.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging bearish condition.

Intra-day price (H4 timeframe) is breaking 1.0880 resistance to above on open bar (as this is dynamic resistance level so this 1.0880 is 1.0876 for now). The next target for breakout is 1.0948, and if the price breaks this level to above - the reversal of the price movement to from the primary bearish to the primary bullish condition will be started.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.03 16:00

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Jobless Claims and 22 pips range price movement

2016-03-03 13:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

==========

"A day before the release of the closely watched monthly jobs report, the Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing that first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased in the week ended February 27th.

The report said initial jobless claims rose to 278,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 272,000."

==========

EURUSD M5: 22 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.04 09:37

Trading News Events: Non-Farm Employment Change (based on the article)

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

With the U.S. economy approaching ‘full-employment,’ signs of sticky wage growth may encourage the FOMC to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months as Chair Janet Yellen remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon.

Nevertheless, waning business confidence accompanied by fears of a slowing recovery may drag on hiring, and a dismal NFP report may produce increased headwinds for the dollar as market participants push out bets for the next Fed rate-hike.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Climbs 195K+ Accompanied by Sticky Wage Growth

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: U.S Employment Report Falls Short of Market Expectations
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily


  • EUR/USD may continue to consolidate within the 2015 range following the failed run at the October high (1.1494), but the pair stands at risk of facing near-term headwinds as market participants anticipate the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement more non-standard measures at the March 10 interest rate decision.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (50% retracement) to 1.1520 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)
Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month
EURUSD M5: 133 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news event:





 

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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.04 11:24

Ahead of NFP: levels for EUR/USD

EUR/USD: rally to possible bullish reversal. This pair on the bearish market condition with the secondary bear market rally: the price is located near and below 200 period SMA inside ascending triangle pattern to be formed for the possible bearish reversal. RSI indicator is estimating the rally to be continuing with the secondary ranging condition.

  • if the price breaks 1.1067 resistance so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started;
  • if the price breaks 1.0825 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the channel.


Resistance
Support
1.0973
1.0853
1.1067
1.0825

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