EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, December: weekly bearish pattern for breakdown, monthly breakdown with support target - page 3

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.22 09:47

EURUSD Price Action Analysis - bearish ranging below key reversal Fibo resistance level (adapted from the article)

D1 price is located below 200 day SMA (200 SMA) and 100 day SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition with the ranging near the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

  • The price is ranging between ranging between Fibo resistance level at 1.1059 and Fibo support level at 1.0520.
  • The bullish reversal resistance level is 1.1059 Fibo resistance located above 200 SMA on the border between the bearish/bullish area of the daily chart.
  • The bearish reversal support level is 1.0520 Fibo support located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.
  • Intermediate support level for the price to be broken on the way to the key bearish reversal support level is 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.0791.
  • “The Euro may be establishing a top against the US Dollar as prices carve out what may turn out to be a bearish Head and Shoulders chart formation. The single currency found resistance below the 1.11 figure having launched a recovery following the ECB rate decision, as expected.”
  • “A break below support in the 1.0777-1.0818 area to below will lead with the 38.2% level at 1.0602 as the next target. Alternatively, a reversal above a horizontal pivot at 1.0938 may be targeting with the December 15 high at 1.1060.”



If the price will break 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.0791 so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with Fibo support level at 1.0520 as the next bearish target.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1.1059 from below to above on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.22 15:11

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Gross Domestic Product and 12 pips range price movement

2014-12-22 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

==========

"Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2015, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.9 percent."

==========

EURUSD M5: 12 pips range price movement by USD - GDP news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.23 10:29

GBP/USD in downtrend towards 1.45; EUR/USD is targeting at at 1.0960/80 (adapted from the article)

Societe Generale found Head & Shoulders pattern for EUR/USD and GBP/USD:

  • "If we drop down to daily chart, the pair has recently confirmed a head and shoulders pattern and is currently testing a descending channel limit at 1.4860/1.48...A move below 1.4860/1.48 will mean persistence in downtrend towards 1.45."
  • "Turning to EUR/USD, the pair appears to be forming the right shoulder of a short term H&S pattern at 1.0960/80."


EUR/USD. Bearish ranging on the bullish reversal. The price is located near and below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for the ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1059 resistance level located in the beginning of the bullish trend of the daily chart, and
  • 1.0802 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

Bearish triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken for the bearish condition, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing.

If the price breaks 1.0802 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing.
If the price breaks 1.1059 resistance level so the price will be started to be reversed from the primary bearish to the primary bullish condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1.1059 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0802 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
 Support
1.10591.0802
N/A
1.0557


GBP/USD. Bearish breakdown. The price is on primary bearish market condition to be located far below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.5239 resistance level located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend of the daily chart, and
  • 1.4805 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken for the bearish trend to be continuing, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition by direction.

If the price breaks 1.4805 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing up to 1.4565 level as the target.
If the price breaks 1.5239 resistance level so the bullish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1.5239 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch close daily price to break 1.4805 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish breakdown
Resistance
 Support
1.52391.4805
N/A
1.4565

 

EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging for direction: 'reversal' Senkou Span line to be broken for bearish; symmetric triangle pattern to be crossed for breakout

H4 price is located near abd below Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is ranging within 1.0983/1.0902 intermediate support resistance level for direction for the bearish or to the bullish trend with the possible key s/r reversal levels to be broken.

  • Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the ranging condition to be continuing by direction.
  • Symmetric triangle pattern was crossed by the price to below for the possible bearish trend to be continuing.
  • The key reversal support level for H4 price is 1.0802 located far below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish area of the chart.
  • The key reversal resistance level is 1.1059 located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area.
Resistance
Support
1.09831.0902
1.10591.0802


If H4 price will break 1.0802 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging.
If H4 price will break 1.1059 resistance level so the price will be fully reversed to the primary bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels..

  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.1059 for possible buy trade.
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.0802 support level for possible sell trade.
  • Trading Summary: ranging for direction

SUMMARY : ranging

 
Sergey Golubev:


  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.1059 for possible buy trade.
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.0802 support level for possible sell trade.
Seems this technical analysis for intra-day price H4 will be valid in the beginning of the next year for example :)

Just look at H4 chart for today - no any key level was broken:


 

As to the EUR/USD price movement in the beginning of 2016 so there are the following key levels:

  • 1.1095 resistance located near 'reversal' Senkou Span line on the border between the bearish and the ranging bullish trend on the weekly chart, and
  • 1.0522 support level located far below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish area of the chart.


So, there are 3 scenarios for the price movement in 2016:

  1. Ranging. The price is breaking 1.1095 level to above on close weekly bar. The price will be inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging condition, and 'reversal' Senkou Span line (which is the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart) will be broken. Means: the price will be on the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging (ranging uptrend).
  2. Ranging. Price is breaking 1.0522 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.
  3. An unlikely scenario. The price is ranging within 1.1095/1.0522 area.

Thus, we can make a forecast for EURUSD movement in 2016 by one word: ranging.

 
Sir, i want to know , upcoming holidays what will effect on major or minor or cross currencies such as GBPAUD, EURNZD. abnormal spreads are possible?
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.24 15:40

Targets for GBP/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/USD in 2016? - Deutsche Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD:
"2016 year-end forecasts have changed slightly, while end-2017 forecasts are largely unchanged. EUR/USD is now forecast at 0.95 at the end of 2016, up from our original 0.90 forecast."



USD/JPY:
"The yen will outperform almost all other currencies barring the USD in 2016, with a USD/JPY peak just shy of Y130."



GBP/USD:
"In 2016/7, Cable is expected to test and likely break the 1.35 – 1.40 bottom end of the range that has prevailed for 30 years."



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