EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 12.07 - 19.07: ranging in the middle of reversal waiting for direction - page 2
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.15 07:40
Fundamental Forecast - 'What Will Draghi Say?' - Citibank (based on efxnews article)
Citibank provided some forecasts concerning fundamental news events on Thursday related to ECB meeting and potential EUR reaction. Citi described it on 4 points to be mention:
- "European data has improved, but undeniably the risks to Europe have increased".
-
"Growth has trudged along in Europe since the last
ECB meeting. Broadly, there has been better data in France, Spain and
Italy, with some weakening in Germany...Draghi is likely to remain
cautious and given the decline in oil, there is some potential for a mildly more dovish message on inflation," Citi adds.
-
"We bias a weaker EUR through the press conference."
-
"Thursday’s ECB is going to be dependent to a large extent
on the Greek parliamentary vote and Eurogroup bridge financing
decisions."
Citi told that the market reaction will trump the expectation so the direction for EUR/USD will remain the same one.Citi analytics see a little option for Draghi for the situation improvement to reduce the risk.
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.15 12:18
What To Expect From Yellen? - Views From 10 Major Banks (based on efxnews article)Chair Yellen will present the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday so this is the expectation of 10 major banks:
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.16 08:00
Quant Signals For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, & Other Majors - Barclays (based on efxnews article)
The latest signals from Barclays Capital 'FX Quantitative Analyzer' model:
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.17 08:42
5 Reasons Why EUR/USD Shorts Are Attractive Again - BNPP (based on efxnews article)
BNP Paribas maintains short position for EURUSD from early this week from 1.1025 with 1.05 as a target, and those are 5 reasons about why this bank is considering the short for this pair:
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.17 10:47
Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on dailyfx article)
A meaningful pickup in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may boost the appeal of the greenback and spur fresh monthly lows in EUR/USD as it fuels speculation for a Fed rate hike in 2015.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Signs of stronger price growth may encourage the Fed to adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy, and we may see a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) later this year as Chair Janet Yellen remains confident in achieving the 2% target for inflation over the policy horizon.
However, waning business confidence paired with the weakness in private-sector consumption may continue to drag on price growth, and a dismal CPI print may generate a near-term rebound in EUR/USD as it drags on interest rate expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Headline & Core CPI Picks Up in June
- Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
- If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: Consumer Price Inflation Falls Short of Market Expectations- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEURUSD Daily
EURUSD M5: 22 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event:
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.17 18:38
Forex Weekly Outlook July 20-24 (based on forexcrunch article)
A Greek deal was finally reached, but it didn’t help the euro. In general, the dollar enjoyed broad gains. The upcoming week features housing figures in the US as well as important events for the antipodean currencies. Here are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on these main events.
An “aGreekment” was reached in the early hours of Monday with a Greek capitulation on austerity after Grexit was put on the table. We are seeing signs of a return to normality but with so much bad blood, nobody is really happy and the euro is lower. The crisis could take a break before making a comeback. Elsewhere, the dollar saw mixed numbers, with poor retail sales weighing. However, some better numbers and with a repeat of Yellen’s intention to raise rates this year, the dollar emerged as a winner especially against commodity currencies. USD/CAD touched 1.30, AUD/USD reached new lows despite OK Chinese GDP and NZD/USD fell below the post crisis low. The only currency that beat the dollar quite nicely is the pound, thanks to hawkish comments by Carney. What’s next? Let’s start: