Why do prices move in the same direction but with a lag on correlated instruments? - page 8

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prostotrader #:

FOREX has no future for the user because it was created to rob the people.

You have the right ideas and only on the Exchange can they be realised.

You are talking about the exchange and futures, but this is a derivative instrument, not the underlying asset, and it is clear that its volumes are also smaller. The brokerage companies do not withdraw, these are all tales from the crypt of the early 2000s, which to this day are replicated by fantasists for some reason. The problem is not to withdraw, but to actually earn, and in this sense, the exchange does not have any particular advantage, you would think that this is some gratuitous place with easy profits? Everything is so difficult, there is no difference.
 
vladavd #:
But this is a derivative instrument, not the underlying asset, and it is clear that its volumes are also smaller. You cannot take it out, it's all tales from the crypt of the early 2000s, which to this day are replicated by dreamers for some reason. The problem is not to withdraw, but to actually earn, and in this sense, the exchange does not have any particular advantage, you would think that this is some gratuitous place with easy profits? Everything is so difficult, there is no difference.

Not exactly a story, but whatever.

You can wake up in the morning and the DC is gone and the website is gone. You probably won't argue with that, will you?

 
Vitaly Muzichenko #:

2-bedroom flat in Kiev, payback period ~105 months, just over 4 years. It's not that long, but it's reliable.

But on speculation ..., something will happen, as it did with oil - investors will take it all away and soak it all up.

I wonder how you calculate 105 months? Probably, the right side of the chart was accidentally covered by something, like a cup of tea))


 
vladavd #:

I wonder how they calculated 105 months? The right side of the chart must have been accidentally covered by something, like a cup of tea.)

My eldest daughter lives there, and my brother.

Oh, and a cousin. My brother rents a $400 double, my sister a $600 double, my daughter a $500 double. All on the left bank, not in the centre, in worthless Pozdnyaki and Bereznyaki. The sale of secondary houses is $50-60 thousand.

 
Vitaly Muzichenko #:

My eldest daughter lives there, and my brother.

And what, for them, separate prices, not the same as for all other Kiev citizens? From the graph above, it follows that there is no smell of payback at all, people are not even left with their own money, they are making a loss.

 
vladavd #:

And what, for them separate prices are not the same as for all other Kiev citizens? From the graph above it follows that there is no smell of payback at all, even with their own, people are not left holding a loss.

And here are the flats in my city, all the districts are not blown away - the centre.

Not in the countryside, with well-developed infrastructure. The prices are so high because they are not in the provincial centre.

Flats for rent cost an average of $50 a month.

It is not difficult to calculate, in how many it will pay off. The only difficulty is that in such a town, it is not an investment, everyone is running away to the region.


 

The rental yield is 8% a year. That's fine.

As for ForEx, I see it in two hypostases. It is not a currency exchange market, but a sweepstakes set up in this market. The first is the already mentioned sweepstakes, a lottery. The second is a toy for the mind, an entertainment game to see who can win.

If we are talking about really making money with initial capital of several million rubles, then straight road to the exchange through a decent bank.

If your father gave you 20 quid and you want to take the risk - Forex.

If you want to play around and try to beat the market on a cent account, go there too.

 
Vitaly Muzichenko #:

But flats in my town, all the districts aren't blown away - the centre.

Not a village, quite a developed infrastructure. The prices are such because they are not the regional centre.

Flats rent for an average of $50 a month.

It is not difficult to calculate, in how many it will pay off. The only difficulty is that in such a town, it is not an investment, everyone is running away to the region.


Where is that?

 
prostotrader #:

FOREX has no future for the user because it was created to rob the people.

You have the right ideas and only on the Exchange you can realise them.

Staying on FOREX is just a waste of your time.

Added

You've read my topic about mining, haven't you?

My friend advised me not to change my bitcoins, and I did not listen to him and tried to "break even" my 20000$.

I would have more than 2.5 bitcoins, i.e. I lost more than 100000$ which is to be regretted.

Don't waste your time for nothing!

Forex and bitcoins in the same pile?

 
prostotrader #:

Vitaly!

Don't get upset! You are doing well so far, and all in all, but...

Pairwise trading (according to your correlation) is valid only on the symbols from one industry.

For example Lukoil and Rosneft.

In your case, the FOREX pairs are not instruments from the same industry, even though they are both currencies.

The thing is that the value of different currencies depends on different factors, e.g. the Australian dollar strongly depends on the price of gold.

That's why it's very difficult to account for pairs in the FOREX market.

It is much safer to trade synthetics on the FOREX, i.e. to form an artificial instrument from the other two against the original.

Generally, in this case, pair trading comes down to making a pair, like on currencies, like x/y, and then the whole analysis comes down to finding a pair that has a higher probability of reversal than continuation, i.e. a flat instrument. That is why correlation can in principle be dispensed with, analyzing 1 synthetic instrument in a different way. As a result, one task can be solved in different ways. (Lkoh/rub)/(rosn/rub)=lkoh/rosn
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