About the coin - page 14

 
Renat Akhtyamov:

SB and so called "debts" are running flat, like a return to the average

If there's a trend, there's gonna be an uptick.

It depends. In my opinion, the market is this return to the average, but not to the average price, but to a dynamic level, to a conditional zero, which shifts (but not necessarily, like in a flat). That is why yes such a "debt" may hang in the trend for a long time, but the rebound is also reliable in case of the majors that move in the range. Of course on the ruble or some peso there will be no return to the old price, they can only fall stepped and there will be a long and annoying trading at a new level.

Like this, they are back. But how can a room trader, not a Soros or a Jipimorgan, sit in such a position for almost 4 years? No way. So it is necessary to keep this mechanism in mind, but with understanding of possible risks, because the comeback does not always happen.

 
vladavd:

It depends. In my opinion, the market is this return to the average, but not to the average price, but to the dynamic level, to the conditional zero, which shifts (but not necessarily, like in the flat). That is why yes such a "debt" may hang in the trend for a long time, but the rebound is also reliable in case of the majors that move in the range. Of course on the ruble or some peso there will be no return to the old price, they can only fall stepped and there will be a long and annoying trading at a new level.

Like this, they are back. But how can a room trader, not a Soros or a Jipimorgan, sit in such a position for almost 4 years? No way. So we should keep this mechanism in mind, but with understanding of possible risks as the comeback does not always happen.

4 years...

swap will eat up before you wait

 
Evgeniy Chumakov:


So how do you determine the correct sample size at a particular point in time?

Basically there is no concept of sample size... For example, we can take the spread of prices and move from the beginning to the end until the spread reaches 500 points, so the sample will constantly change, but the spread will remain static, and since the spread directly affects the risks, we adjust the analysis to the risks that suit us. This is a primitive option, but it works for the best.
 
CHINGIZ MUSTAFAEV:
In principle there is no concept of sample size... You can take for example the spread of prices, and move from the beginning to the end until the spread reaches 500 points, so the sample will constantly change, but the spread will remain static, and since the spread determines the risks directly, we adjust the analysis to the risks we are happy with. This is a primitive option, but it works for the best.

not a bad option

The NDP would be "interesting" to work with.

;)

 
Renat Akhtyamov:

4 years...

swap will eat up before you wait

Nominally there was a -1-2% APR for a EURUSD long. But you have to multiply it by the leverage, so yeah, a room trader with 100-200 leverage would bury the swap.

CHINGIZ MUSTAFAFAEV:
Basically, there is no concept of sample size...

For example we single out fluctuations with period T or build a channel, but how can we identify them without having enough extrema on the chart? This "enough" + some margin to compensate for old data drifting left out of the window determines the optimal sample size depending on the resolving power of the method and its resistance to series special effects. I.e. sample size is not taken from the ceiling, but is specific and on understandable grounds. To be able to see the elephant, it should not be larger than the frame, but also should not be too far away and merge with the mountains :)

 
vladavd:

Nominally there was a -1-2% p.a. rate for a EURUSD long. But it still needs to be multiplied by the leverage, so yes, a room trader with 100-200 leverage would bury the swap.

all even

;)

 
CHINGIZ MUSTAFAEV:
Basically there is no concept of sample size... For example, you can take the spread of prices and move from the beginning to the end until the spread reaches 500 points, so the sample will constantly change, but the spread will remain static, and since the spread directly affects the risks, we adjust the analysis to the risks that suit us. This is a primitive version, but it works for the worse.


I've been sampling by range. It doesn't work.

 
Evgeniy Chumakov:

I've been sampling by range. It doesn't work.

Well, it's not the best method, but I took something elementary as an example. It's a lot more complicated than that...
 
CHINGIZ MUSTAFAEV:
Well it's not the best method, but I took something elementary as an example. It's much more complicated than that...


I have written many times that his PNB works like this, if the row is up, then the forecast is there too.

 

That's a good sign :))) That this thing distinguishes the top from the bottom.