Experiment - page 38

 
CHINGIZ MUSTAFAEV:
And you can just take this NDP and build it e.g. from 200 to 100 bar, and then make a forecast from 99 to 0 bar and see the statistics, how much it is able to predict something in %...
And maybe, if we are lucky, something interesting will be found, for example, that it is able to predict better on a flat, but not on a trend, or shows reversals well.... What do you think?
Well, you know when trends are pronounced, almost everything works there without PNB)


It doesn't.

Just to be clear, you can also take a linear regression line from 200 to 100 bars etc. The % of the prediction is clear - if price continues to move there, but it shouldn't. Same with the PNB.


p/s. I did another tricky test with determining a trend start point by going through the sample size (using the properties of 3 PNB lines) , sometimes the trend on history was not found. But after some time it will be detected.

) It's a pity I deleted that variant of the indicator, I have to do it again.

 
Renat Akhtyamov:

The 3hundredth won't, just like the 3h Trillion.

a shining example, but hopefully instructive

they'd be pulling bars from the dinosaur era.

;)

The market is interesting because of its unpredictability. Elegance in a way.

To conquer it is the dream of many.

There will always be someone at the top, according to the probability given by nature.

 
Evgeniy Chumakov:


It doesn't work.

Just to be clear, you could also take and draw a linear regression line from 200 to 100 bar etc. The % prediction is clear - if price continues to move there, but it shouldn't. It's the same with the PNB.

That's the catch. ;-)

 
Uladzimir Izerski:

The market is interesting because of its unpredictability. Elegance in a way.

Winning it is the dream of many.

There will always be someone at the top, according to the probability that nature gives.

You can only win repeatedly, not always,

to take profits all the time, to stay in the money in the event of a black swan, it shows that

the market is always cyclical, you make a profit in 1-2 years and then you have to be very careful

you withdraw profit when you have it, forex is not an investment but a "speculation" and therefore the hardest game where everything depends on your decision.

 
Marat Zeidaliyev:

That's the catch. ;-)

Price reacts first to this minute conjuncture, and then relies on history.

History is good for analysis without new data.

As it is, everything is good.)))

 
 
Marat Zeidaliyev:

You can only win repeatedly, not always,

takes profits all the time, so that in the case of a black swan you have money, this shows that the market is always cyclical

the market is always cyclical, gives a profit for 1-2 years and then you have to be careful

Forex is not an investment but a "speculation" and that's why it is the hardest game where everything depends on your decision.

Correct thinking, in my view of the market and statements as a forum member. I will give you a plus as a respected forum member.

 
Uladzimir Izerski:

Price reacts first to this minute conjuncture, and then it relies on history.

History is good for analysis without new data.

As it is, everything is good)))

The price reacts to the new data, but it does not affect it in the end,

but history does have an effect.

It's understandable why it doesn't even need to be explained.

If I had been given the starting point of the market for a currency pair

then with the most sophisticated data analysis you could predict exactly where the price would go

and it will go there 99.99% of the time

 
Marat Zeidaliyev:

Price reacts to new data but has no impact in the long run,

but history does.

It's obvious why, I don't even need to explain

if I was given the very beginning of the market for a currency pair.

then with the most sophisticated data analysis you could predict exactly where the price would go

and it will go there 99.99% of the time.

You found a good interlocutor. That is nice.

Yes, the price of an asset cannot go beyond the sky, because it is constantly tied to a bundle of interconnected structures.

If you understand the structure, you can find the correlation.

 
Uladzimir Izerski:

Found a good conversationalist. That's good to hear.

Yes. The price of an asset cannot go sky-high, because it is constantly tied to a bundle of interconnected structures.

If you understand the structure, you can find the correlation.

Now that's hot.)

therein lies the whole essence of the money supply

the whole structure of the market is clearly controlled by strict subordination but it is not as easy as it may seem at first sight

the time scalability of the market makes it even more complicated, because a one-minute timeframe can affect and move the price a thousand points into space

the main interest (MM) is looking down like an eagle, and acts invisibly and immediately so to speak and the candlestick on the chart does not even move and volumes are hidden from view to prevent sensing

and it's all visible on the minute)

as the hamsters look up on the hourlies on the daily and weekly charts, they always turn into the meat, because they don't understand the subordination of the market and the essence of its structure ... )