Trend and levels - page 37
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Swiss franc, Short from 0.8922
Swiss franc, Short from 0.8922
What shorts when the euro is falling, wake up
so buy it.
so buy it.
while consolidation, too early to sell below the level
Audi/Canadian dollar, Long from 98.506
Consolidation under level, Buy Stop
Bitcoin remains likely to go North, mirror level 55495.66, post-touch retracement, shallow so far
Bitcoin on D1.
The main daily channel (red) is pointing downwards. The first attempt to break the blue line from the top failed. Most likely there will be a second more successful one.
Let's see. The trend is still up, since the pattern is 9393.
https://www.mql5.com/ru/charts/13857565/btcusd-d1-roboforex-ltd
I would like to discuss this topic, Trend and levels
A trend is a directional movement of price, but this is the definition in general, so details are needed. A trend can be defined in different ways, but I am inclined to the definition given by Dow and given by Murphy, an uptrend is every subsequent Top and Trough above the previous one, whereas a downtrend is every subsequent Trough and Trough below the previous one, if none of the conditions is fulfilled, there is no trend.
The question arises right away: what to count on? How to determine these tops and troughs?
Help immediately comes to Gerchik and other authors who work with levels, which are in fact these tops and troughs, it was a significant event, in which the bulls/bears gained a winning position and this winning position has led to an important market event, confirmed the trend (Re-Low, ReHigh), broke the trend (Breaking of the trend) or the price was below/above the level (Limit Level).
Thus, the levels (and thus the trends) will differ in time (timeframe), on which they are visible.
Now the question needs to be solved: what value to take for drawing of the level? The first way, not very accurate, is High/Low of the extremum when the price reached its peak but there is a more accurate way (suggested by Gerchik) which is more accurate (IMHO), the level is bound to the close price of the candle. If the Close and High/Low of the candle is higher/lower than the previous High/Low, the level will be High/Low; if the candle shows a Close below the previous High/Low, the level will be the previous extremum; I attach the picture with all possible variants.
Sort of figured out the trend and the levels drawn on its key values, Key trend points connecting: 1) the beginning of the Impulse, 2) the end of the Impulse, the beginning of a pullback/correction, 3) the end of the correction/the beginning of the impulse
- - - - - -
Now the question about entry points, levels are places where a break/break of bulls/bears happened in the past, so let's assume that if the price approaches the level of resistance (place of break-up in the past), something happened in the market that changed the bias, and now the bulls are in force, and the entry point for buying is a level, where bears won in the past, because it is a zone, the passage of which confirms the bears have no power.
But the observations showed that simple ТВх from the level at the approach to it is not very reliable, the matter is that the indirect evidence allows to find out what the market is ready to do, to break through it or will not be able to break through it and rebound.
According to Gerchik, it is called a squeeze of the price to the level, or break of the squeeze, or leveling. If the price presses the level, a breakout is more probable; if it is pressed down, a squeeze-out occurs, the breakout is questionable, most probably a stop-out or a rebound.
And then MM comes into play, any forecast for TVX provides probability hardly differing from 50%, will it be 70%? What if they don't give a stable profit? You need an MM with high risk/profit, or risk should be close to zero (within reasonable limits of course) and take to infinity, in fact if you have risk/profit 1 to 3 you won't get sunk.
In the drawings, the uptrend, so it is desirable to look for tbh in its direction, because in a trend impulses are always longer than the corrective pullbacks
To find the Tx, we go inside the day.
The level 39796, from it there was a strong drop in the past, i.e. there was an opinion that it's time to sell, after it passed, and it turned into a Mirror level, Impulse 1 is a new pullback, Impulse 2, correction, Impulse 3, a new attempt to go South, but in it we see that the bears weakened, unable to renew Impulse 1 low, after it forms a good situation for a Buy attempt, from the level.
Go even lower (in time), as seen on M5, the price approaches the level of a stable trend (trend), it is in the language of forex, squeeze, steady movement, so buy from the level, stop for the last Hollow in the trend, or 10% of the APR(5) with D1, the risk is small as you see, and the profit is at least 1 to 3 of the risk9 or better). At the time of publishing the screenshot the risk/profit has reached 1 to 4.
Now about the Smoothing pattern, the GBP/JPY, the price comes to the level in the trend, but breaks it all the time (breaks a previous Trough), and as a predictor of the rebound, it is right, so after the Up Pulse there was a rebound, it is a False-break of the level.
The topic is interesting enough, everything I could dig out, I wrote, but as the real market shows, there are many dark places in the whole story with levels and trends. So I need your help, dear readers.
In the application, there is Gerchik's book available, but it is tied to the stock market, there everything is tight in time, whereas in Forex it is tight in general, but in general, everything is the same, with its peculiarities.
Marat Gazizov's course (playlist on YouTube). This is for those who want to see primary sources.
Hello friends, I also want to make my contribution to this urgent and confusing topic and suggest assessing the trend of an instrument by the opening prices according to the numerical value of the system potential for the selected sample, for example in the last ten bars of a certain TF, for example D1, and denote it by the symbolT10 D1
The numeric value of this potential can be obtained from the equation of the Universal Regression Model (URM)https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/250
For this case, the system potential is T10 e1 = 0.0153639 points. Or, by multiplying 1 by 10000 we get 153.64 units.
By Monday this indicator will be halved: T10 d1 = 0.0083831 points. Or multiplying by 1 by 10000 we receive 83.83 points:
In such a way you can estimate trendiness of any instrument at the given moment of time. There will be no room for subjective opinion on this issue! Your opinions.