Methods of identifying a flat and a trend.
There is the well-known problem of separating the trend from the flat, as many trading systems work well in a trend and start losing in a flat, I would like to raise the question of different approaches to solving this problem.
I have found only 2 tools so far:
1. The difference between two long and short period MAs.
2. one of the ADX lines is responsible for indicating the strength of the trend.
Both have a strong lag and many false positives.
I would like to discuss the question, who looks at it and why? I think we will all benefit from a new viewpoint that has not been washed out.
There is nothing to discuss, nothing new has been invented yet. All indicators are derived from the price and they are always late. There is a thread about it here. Read it. https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/335428
- 2020.03.21
- www.mql5.com
There is the well-known problem of separating the trend from the flat, as many trading systems work well in a trend and start losing in a flat, I would like to raise the question of different approaches to solving this problem.
I have found only 2 tools so far:
1. The difference between two long and short period MAs.
2. one of the ADX lines is responsible for indicating the strength of the trend.
Both have a strong lag and many false positives.
There is a suggestion to debate this issue, who looks at it and why, I think we will all benefit from new unshadowed viewpoints.
You have phrased the title correctly. We can discard the wording itself and focus on the definition.
I define a trend by the tops and troughs of a zigzag. The trend is identified: as up trend, down trend and trend not expressed.
The notion of a trend not being expressed is not a flat, but it is not a sustained form of trend. It can mean a market contraction or expansion. There are several combinations.
A flat is a particular form of chart, subject to certain rules. Everyone has their own.
There is no miracle indicator that will tell you where the price will go. Until you realise that this is impossible in principle, you will be playing 50/50 random.
And when it comes, what will change?
There is the well-known problem of separating the trend from the flat, as many trading systems work well in a trend and start losing in a flat, I would like to raise the issue of different approaches to solving this problem.
Why complicate things so much, start from the fact that all events in the market (price chart) is a visualization of a lot of randomness.
Why make things so complicated, start from the fact that all events in the market (price chart) are a visualisation of a set of randomness.
Or a random set?
Why make things so complicated, start from the fact that all events in the market (price chart) are a visualisation of a lot of randomness.
All accidents are subject to regularity. There is no getting away from it.
There is no miracle indicator that will show you where the price will go. Until you realise that this is impossible in principle, you will be playing 50/50 random.
It's not about miracles, it's about the fact that there is a problem and there are different approaches to solving it, different approaches have their pros and cons, which within different trading systems can be more or less critical.
This is what the topic is about.
There is the well-known problem of separating the trend from the flat, as many trading systems work well in a trend and start losing in a flat, I would like to raise the question of different approaches to solving this problem.
I have found only 2 tools so far:
1. The difference between two long and short period MAs.
2. one of the ADX lines is responsible for indicating the strength of the trend.
Both have a strong lag and many false positives.
I would like to discuss the question, who considers it and why?
As for the time interval, it may be a flat, but no one has cancelled the global trend. And so, even if it is a flat condition, we enter in the direction of the global trend. By a global trend I mean the trend on the nearest higher TF where it can be identified. There is no such thing as a sideways trend on all TFs.
Even if on some time interval there is a sideways trend, but no one cancelled the global trend. Therefore, even if the market is flat, we enter in the direction of the global trend. By a global trend I understand the trend in the nearest higher TF where it can be identified. It does not happen that all TFs are flat.
That is correct. On any TF we can consider the chart to contain the trend exactly in its price and time range. Any TF has its own trends.
The choice is up to the user, which TF to choose.
The simplest grandfather's method to determine the trend is by tops and bottoms. The conventional alternating steps up or down. But we must always remember that in a trend there are impulse and correction waves. One should have strong nerves to hold a position in a trend from the beginning to its end. Not many people manage to do this.
P.s.
What good is this method? It is easier to determine the direction of the trend and its completion. And accordingly to see the possible beginning of a new one.
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There is the well-known problem of separating the trend from the flat, as many trading systems work well in a trend and start losing in a flat, I would like to raise the question of different approaches to solving this problem.
I have found only 2 tools so far:
1. The difference between two long and short period MAs.
2. one of the ADX lines is responsible for indicating the strength of the trend.
Both have a strong lag and many false positives.
I propose to discuss this question, who looks at it and why, I think we will all benefit from new viewpoints that are not washed out.