Why an economic crisis is inevitable. - page 7
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Hi!
An economic crisis is a spiritual crisis.
First people get together, all hungry, all unshod, and sincere with each other (in the beginning) and create a joint economy, enterprise, artels, groups of companies, banks, etc.
Then some begin to get rich, and begin to lose a sense of proportion, then begin to manage the rest of the workers = for their own enrichment.
Those who are on Olympus begin to have their own fights = who is richer, begin to divide spheres of influence and begin to dismiss someone under false denunciations, or kill him (and this happens everywhere in the world).
Some of them begin to slow down the delivery of raw materials = to other rich people so that they deflate and crawl to them.
And a nightmare begins in the market - the economy begins to slow down, unemployment among ordinary workers, wage cuts, getting kicked out of work, etc...
They try to "revive" the economy or try to reactivate it....
Yes, to somehow moderate human vices they apply the Criminal Code, but as usual, it is used only against competitors, and they do not touch "their own", so the economic crisis will be cyclical and the main trend is directed to complete collapse - that is, popular uprisings, or conquest by another state.
Amen.
IN SEARCH OF MARTIANS
So we have established that the capitalist economy cannot exist in a closed system. The presence of external markets is a matter of life and death for it.
But where can they be found? With fierce international competition, it is not easy at all.
Let's take the US economy as an example, as the most advanced, and therefore closest to the limit of its development.
At American wages, the bulk of their goods are totally uncompetitive. Some of it is sold with aircraft carriers and military bases, but not enough. The US trade deficit is staggering. I am not giving a figure as it will change😅 significantly tomorrow.
What is to be done? Because if we don't solve the problem of selling the goods we produce, there will be a quick and brutal end. Here and now!
But the population simply doesn't have the money to buy them out. I'm always amused when people tell me about overproduction crises.
What overproduction? Everybody's dreaming of buying a car, a house and everything else. There's no crisis of overproduction, there's a lack of effective demand.
It's immortal: he's a zyist, but who's going to give it to him?
So, the world has come to a situation where there is nowhere to expand, the whole earth is already covered. As long as Martians do not buy back all the goods that have not been sold we will not be happy.
By the way, China's rapid growth was ensured by their own Martians, i.e. the U.S.. As long as everything was exported to America, the Chinese were growing wildly. If anything, they will fall right after the US.
Woe to those who have no Martians of their own. But don't worry! Eureka! I've got it!A question for the experts in fundamental analysis. Let's discuss the impending global crisis. I think this is the most important factor for the near future.
I have not found a direct and precise explanation for this phenomenon, as much as I have read about the models of the capitalist system crisis. It's all a roundabout thing... It seems to be a terrible mystery, if everyone keeps quiet about it like a partisan.
Of course, a lot of very general statements such as: this is a contradiction between the public nature of production and the private nature of the appropriation of the results of this production. Or the impoverishment of the population is the cause of crises... Or capitalism cannot use productive resources efficiently... The financial sector has eaten up the real economy... The whole problem is debt... Derivatives... Globalisation... Currency instability... Fucking hell, shoot everybody, divide everything!
I think that's enough, although the list goes on and on.
But get to the numbers, gentlemen! Where's the model with the ability to make countable predictions? How much time do we have left? What to do?
One possible model for thepolitics/economics nexus.
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Market is a controlled dynamic system.
Oleg avtomat, 2014.05.13 14:48
Here it is appropriate to recall the Kondratieff waves, which have a period of about 60 years. And these cycles are not imaginary, but rather clearly identified by empirical data. The mechanism of formation of these cycles is not known precisely, but this mechanism is more profound, fundamental, in relation to the pair "politics / economics".
It looks something like this:
Recall here the phases of rapid growth, saturation, stagnation and other descriptive characteristics of the development of countries - their societies, economies, industries, health, education, etc.
These long cycles are superimposed over smaller cycles of the second, third, fourth, etc. orders. These cycles can already be compared to government development plans - strategic (~20 years), average (~5 years), current (year, quarter).
Such a second-order wave looks something like this:
Smaller cycles are built on the same principle (I will not draw them here so as not to clutter up the picture).
The time scale of cycles is very important (figuratively speaking, a failure in the monthly production plan will not cause the collapse of the five-year plan for the economy).
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In the "politics/economy" pair, both politics and economics are interrelated and interdependent. And they both have a certain goal, which is set by the development plan, i.e. a task force that is external to them. Without a goal, there is neither politics nor economy. And the two dimensions are complementary.
Figuratively, this complementarity can be represented as follows:
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If you decompose the wave (cycleG in the previous picture) into its components, it will look like this
The current level of economic development forces the adoption of certain political decisions. And vice versa, adopted political decisions affect the development of the economy.
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And we should also remember and understand that we are inside this movement and not bystanders from the timeless.
In order to describe the model more accurately, factors that influence politics and the economy need to be introduced into the model. There are many such factors, but among them some factors are more significant and others less significant. In different periods these factors act with different force, in different ways. It is necessary to identify the most important of them at different parts of the development trajectory.
Such models provide such an opportunityto quantify(rather than the above-mentioned coffee grounds' guesswork).
So you keep forgetting about emission. It is issue that creates the flow of money. But emission comes through people. That is, those who are closer to the emission, they always get rich and "give away" to those around them. So a person has gained a ruble, and his neighbour has already gained 2, because he is closer to the source of emission, which means that his ruble has depreciated. Inflation exists because of the emission of money, which in turn does not allow people to become poorer, because there is always an injection of money, giving the population more money. You can print as much money as you want, as long as you have somewhere to spend it. And where to spend it is what IT is doing now. The new iPhone will come out in a year...). As long as people want something there will be no collapse. You have to support what you want.
One possible model of the policy/economy relationship
In order to describe the model more accurately, it is necessary to introduce factors that influence politics and the economy. There are many such factors, but among them some are more significant and others less significant. In different periods these factors act with different force, in different ways. It is necessary to identify the most important of them at different parts of the development trajectory.
Models such as these provide such an opportunity to quantify(rather than the above-mentioned coffee grounds guesswork)
Cash dollars for other countries' central banks are printed to order, and of course vary in series. But it hardly plays a big role in the economy. Cash turnover in the west is incomparable to non-cash turnover.
Yes, it was all good before globalisation. Some minor imbalances, burned up surpluses in bubbles like dotcoms or mortgages, but it's a different story now.
Yes, it was all good before globalisation. Some minor imbalances, burned up surpluses in bubbles like dotcoms or mortgages, but it's a different story now.
No, nothing has changed in principle.
No, nothing has changed in principle.
What about us? Yes, and you have to mark up non-cash too, as far as I know, all transactions over $10,000 are controlled.
I think it was written recently that just over half of people in big cities in Russia pay by card. For goods and services. I could be wrong.