Why an economic crisis is inevitable. - page 2
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who said anything about cycles, the answer is: the question is not whether it will or will not happen (who believes in perpetual growth?), but when and on what scale. the whole world is cyclical, everyone knows that winter will come, the question is when and whether it will be severe.
No, I think everything can be analysed, including the economy.
I don't think it's a question of predictability, but rather a question of sufficiency (and more importantly, reliability) of input data. a few years ago (2013?) there was a scandal about China fudging statistics for a couple of provinces, the markets were shaken up a bit then, but they recovered... so i think that no one knows the real situation and hence forecasting based on fake data is impossible as well as building a model.
I don't think it's a question of predictability, but rather a question of sufficiency (and more importantly, reliability) of input data. a few years ago (2013?) there was a scandal about China fudging statistics for a couple of provinces, the markets were shaken up a bit then, but they recovered... so i think that no one knows the real situation and hence forecasting on the basis of fake data is impossible as well as building a model.
The whole world is cyclical, everyone knows that winter will come, the question is when and whether it will be harsh.
The winter analogy keeps coming to mind. We know it is coming and we know when, because the earth is spinning steadily. But the temperature is very unstable. We cannot tell what the temperature will be on this or that day or this winter. Or can we? But we do know that the annual average temperature in a particular area is fairly stable, but it's floating a bit, but the annual average temperature across the planet is even more stable. So knowing the annual average temperature for the planet and the specific area, plus the temperatures for each day of the last year, can't we calculate what tomorrow will be?
And the temperature doesn't just hold steady. It's held because of the steady inflow of energy and then the redistribution of that energy. I think a similar process takes place in economics. There is a stable (conditionally stable) inflow of energy (money emission), and then redistribution.
If we're talking about mathematical modelling, then ohhhh, very important. if we're talking about philosophical modelling, then it probably doesn't matter at all.
Yes, I've been pondering on this subject, it seems to me that economists are just breaking into the wrong lane. It's much simpler than that.
Yes, I've been thinking about it, it seems to me that economists are just breaking into the wrong lane. It's much simpler than that.
The idea is that the speed of development should be as close as possible to the speed of money inflows. If the speed of development is faster, there will be rapid growth, but then there will be a setback. The more even the development, the less the setback.
The idea is that the speed of development should be as close as possible to the speed of money inflows. If the speed of development is faster, there will be rapid growth, but then there will be a backlash. The more even the development, the less the setback.
...
Of course, there are plenty of very general statements such as: it is a contradiction between the public nature of production and the private nature of the appropriation of the results of this production.
...
A contradiction between the aims and tasks of the producer and the consumer.
Producers need to sell, sell, sell. And the consumer needs to buy once and forget, to relax for as long as possible.
As long as there is real technical progress, the consumer cannot get away with it. But when there isn't, the manufacturer creates an illusion, and any fog sooner or later dissipates.
I agree, but we are not talking about a rollback now, we are talking about a collapse.
No, there won't be a collapse. There will be another crisis during which there will be a redistribution of funds/power/control. Some will leave and others will take their place. Some companies will go bankrupt, others will grow. No matter how strong the crisis is, everything will continue exactly as it was. And the pullback can be not only in the price of assets, the pullback can happen in population and it will happen one day. The structure does not change, only the scale does, and hunger is only a certain scale.