Regularity or Randomness - page 29

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Vasily Belozerov:

Pardon me, what's the psychology of the eagle\tree game?

It's kind of a metaphor. I was making a coin-operated crowd analogy.
I'm talking about the psychology of people in the marketplace...

 
Vasily Belozerov:

In the stock market, there may be a memory, although it is debatable. In the currency market, however, I think there is no memory at all.

EXAMPLE. Dividing a pound by a dollar, what do you get? 5 kg of sugar divided by 3 kg of wheat, what do you get?

Dividing the speed of a Jaguar going over England by the speed of a Ford going over America, what do you get?

You get a set of random numbers.

About division... Was doing research on where the exchange rate comes from globally. Figured it out. If we take the money supply of Great Britain and divide it by the number of inhabitants, we get the number of pounds per person. Now do the same with the Australian dollar, you get the number of Auds per person. Now we take the aud/gbp and divide it. You get gbpaud. You get the exchange rate plus minus the deviation, which depends on the velocity of the money supply and its current position. I checked with jpy, aud, nzd, gbp and others. As expected, Japan has a higher turnover rate. On the other hand, the exchange rate of the ruble is high, as if the turnover is very slow. The theory is not fully developed yet, but it is already visible, that we do not divide 5kg of sugar by 3kg of wheat.
 
Renat Akhtyamov:

Ironically

but

you must first learn never to lose

but in doing so.

by completing the task by 5, the winnings will be 100%

Whoa whoa whoa whoa easy:)
 
Maxim Romanov:
About the division... Was doing some research into where the exchange rate comes from globally. Figured it out. If we take the money supply of Great Britain and divide it by the number of inhabitants, we get the number of pounds per person. Now do the same with the Australian dollar, you get the number of Auds per person. Now we take the aud/gbp and divide it. You get gbpaud. You get the exchange rate plus minus the deviation, which depends on the velocity of the money supply and its current position. I checked with jpy, aud, nzd, gbp and others. As expected, Japan has a higher turnover rate. On the other hand, the exchange rate of the ruble is very high, as if the turnover is very slow. The theory is not yet complete, but it is already clear that we do not divide 5kg of sugar by 3kg of wheat.

Thanks for confirming my hypothesis!!!! Divide the number of pounds per person in England by the number of dollars per person in Australia!!!

Isn't it the same as dividing 5kg of sugar by 3kg of wheat?

 
Vasily Belozerov:

Thanks for confirming my hypothesis!!!! Divide the number of pounds per person in England by the number of dollars per person in Australia!!!

And it is not the same as dividing 5 kg of sugar by 3 kg of wheat?

If we consciously want to know the price of 5kg of sugar relative to 3kg of wheat, then yes, that is one thing.
But it's not a random value. The money supply has a certain rate of growth, so does the population. It all depends on certain factors and is covered by a feedback loop. If Australians want to continue to live in a world of people, they will watch the pound, and the British watch the Australian dollar, adjusting their economies. Everything is covered by a huge feedback loop, somewhere it is positive, somewhere it is negative.
The automaton is partly right in applying sau methods, it's just that they need to be applied to global processes, and for that you need a global model.
 
Maxim Romanov:
If we deliberately want to know the price of 5kg of sugar in relation to 3kg of wheat, then yes, that is one thing.
But it is not a random variable. The money supply has a certain rate of growth, so does the population. It all depends on certain factors and is covered by a feedback loop. If the Australians want to continue to live in a world of people, they will follow the pound, and the British will follow the Australian dollar, adjusting their economies. Everything is covered by a huge feedback loop, somewhere it is positive, somewhere it is negative.
The automaton is partly right in applying sau methods, it's just that they need to be applied to global processes, and for that you need a global model.

Yes you write everything correctly, but no matter how you spin it, kg/kg is just a number and the dynamics in the numerator (even two: mass and population number) is divided by the dynamics in the denominator, and after division you get the dynamics of little predictable figures.

Just numbers, no kg, no cm, no litres.

 
Vasily Belozerov:

Yes, you write everything correctly, but no matter how you spin it, kg/kg is just a number, and the dynamics in the numerator (even two: mass and population) are divided by the dynamics in the denominator, and after division you get the dynamics of little predictable figures.

Just numbers, no kg, no cm, no litres.

Yes! Just numbers, I agree completely. Thought long and hard about this problem. How do you get the real values back from these ratios.... because with a ratio of 1.5, there could be any value. At first I thought of solving a system of equations like:
A/c = x
C/c=y
A/C=z
But this is impossible. So nothing adequate has been invented in this direction. After all, when gbpusd falls, it is not clear what exactly is happening the pound falls, the dollar rises, both fall, both rise... In general there are a lot of combinations.
So far the conclusion: nothing.

 
Maxim Romanov:
Yes! Just numbers, here I agree completely. I've been thinking about this problem for a long time. How do you get the real values back from these ratios.... because with a ratio of 1.5, there can be any values. At first I thought of solving a system of equations like:
A/c = x
C/y= y
A/C=z
But this is impossible. So nothing adequate has been invented in this direction. After all, when gbpusd falls, it is not clear what exactly is happening the pound falls, the dollar rises, both fall, both rise... In general there are a lot of combinations.
The conclusion so far: nothing.

It's nice to talk to adequate people. I've come to these conclusions as well and decided to simplify it to O/P. You find an O/P solution, you'll find a solution in any market.

 

By the way, are you sure there are only fractions everywhere?

I'd check for a start, like 15 pairs.

And then the turnip would be easier to scratch

But I'll tell you right away - there's no correlation between pairs.

After all, it is a normal business of buying/selling currencies, each of which is an ordinary unique market commodity, and has its own and only its own price.
 
Renat Akhtyamov:

By the way, are you sure there are only fractions everywhere?

I'd check that for a start, like a pair of 15.

And then the turnip would be easier to scratch

But I have to say straight away that there is no correlation between the pairs.

After all, it is a normal business of buying/selling currencies, each with its own and only its own unique price.

How could it not? For starters, divide the Euro\dollar figures by the Pound\dollar figures at a given second, the dollar is declining. Get the Euro/Pound figure.

With any other triangles it will be the same.

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