Simulate the situation. If 1,000 people were forced to trade amongst themselves, how would the graph behave? - page 14

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multiplicator:
my opinion on this topic:

people will see some kind of trend (say, up) and they will start to get hooked on it en masse, this will accelerate the chart up to huge numbers.

then someone decides to close, and people see a trend reversal - they will just as massively start to cover their trades.

but i used to think that price would go down to the initial position where the trend started.

but as pictures from real market show, price will stop slightly higher.
How do you explain this? people who missed a market crash and ended up with a loss, they already think "ah, it's too late to sell", let's wait, maybe the price will go up.

For a trend to appear, you have to force someone to go down in the market. I described the approximate process above.
The trend in this case will not come out of nowhere by itself. It will be bouncing up and down until the spread narrows.
I made it clear, it will all depend on who believes what.

 
multiplicator:

but as the pictures from the real market show, the price will stop a bit higher.
how can this be explained? people who missed a market crash and ended up with a loss, they already think "ah, it's too late to sell", let's wait, maybe the price will go up.

That's why bitcoin doesn't go down to zero.

Those who bought it at high prices are not selling it right now, they are hoping the price will go up.

when everyone sells it, the price will drop to zero.

 
multiplicator:
my opinion on this topic:

people will see some kind of trend (say, up) and they will start to get hooked on it en masse, this will accelerate the chart up to huge numbers.

Then someone will decide to close, and people will see a trend reversal - they will just as massively start to cover their trades.
And what makes you think that price goes where most people are looking? Then the majority would be making money. But the practice shows that it is the minority who make money.
 
Nikolai Semko:
And what makes you think that the price goes where most people look? Then the majority would make money. But the practice shows that it is the minority who make money.

This is from catching a "falling knife", i.e. entering against the trend and waiting for a reversal. Few people trade on the move.

 
Vitaly Muzichenko:

This is from catching a "falling knife", i.e. entering against the trend and waiting for a reversal. Few people trade on a move

That's right, the market has the highest rate of reversal. The temptation is great, the potential is great, the stop is small.
And when we continue, it is scary because there is nowhere to stop and nowhere to pull back from.

 
Andrey Gladyshev:


to continue - scary,

You are scared, I am scared too, and many others will be scared- determined pattern is scary.

The next thing to do is to define the pattern - sorry. So that most people will feel sorry. So that all the greedy ones in this price range will gather together.

Then I think to consider the pattern-unclear, where no one understands.

And so on down the list, then formalize it all, code it, test it and voila the robot is ready.

 

What an interesting thread, with the right questions, the right pictures and the right approach to pattern finding. I'm getting a high. Yeah, all that's left to do is find the right answers on the market charts.

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Charts almost never go back to exactly "zero" because of energy dissipation. https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%94%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F_%D1%8D%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B8

 
multiplicator:

this is why bitcoin does not fall to zero.

Those who bought it at high prices are not selling it now, but are hoping the price will rise.

When everyone sells out, the price will drop to zero.

There is also a little-known effect. If everyone closes their positions, the price will not necessarily fall to 0, but to minus. That is, if the price of the asset was 0, people started to buy, then after closing all the positions, under certain conditions, the price can go even into minus. But since it cannot go into minus, this is the bankruptcy of the asset. There is not enough money to pay off the liabilities. The stock market is a pyramid with all its properties.
 

Hi!

100 people plant and sell potatoes and eat one potato too.

They each have 10 kul of potatoes, some of the potatoes are planted, some are stockpiled - for eating and selling.

How will the potato price schedule change?

============================

1. If the coefficient of entrepreneurship of 100 people is different for each of them,

One or more of them will dominate over the rest and conspire to lower or raise the price,

many will be bankrupted and put on the "credit needle", some will be kept on a "leash".

And the price chart will go where they want it to go.

2. If everyone's enterprising coefficient is the same, then here they will start grouping together in factions,

Of course, the winner will be the one who plays dirty (criminal methods - liquidation, bribery, threats, etc.).

===========================

Such a picture is emerging.

Conclusion: the market is driven by collusion.

 
multiplicator:
imagine this experiment.

They decided to do a study. They gave away $100 each to a thousand people. They set up their own broker, installed a trading terminal and told everyone: "Start trading".

You could put orders in the market. You could open deals on the market.

(financial instrument - virtual)

How do you think a chart will behave in such a study?

And how will it end?

at first by the trading noise, then someone will get drunk, someone will sell out and the trends will start.

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