An accident or an unrecognised pattern? - page 9

 
Ilya Malev:

The terminal has everything you need specifically for the purposes of trading, modelling and testing any sensible TS. Including, by the way, already synthetics (although it's already on the border of reasonableness - it's clear that anything can be invented, but why?)

Well at least to improve the quality of simulation. The discrepancy between the test results and the real trade is a hackneyed theme, and it says just about the fact that the quality of simulation is not enough.

Well, if the results are very different...

Maybe it's because it's not possible to create such a testing model yet... But it is severely lacking.

Otherwise what's the point of modelling?

Well, except for a quick check of bugs on serviceability.

 
Also...


If you do the optimisation for 2017 and then check the different optimisation results for 2018,
and choose from them which result performs better,
then that's fitting too!

You need to take the best backtest optimization result, check it on 2018, if it shows a bad result, that's it! the strategy is bad.
And going through the results, it's already a manual fitting.

 
The main thing for spread-sensitive systems is to test with adequate (i.e. real, highly dependent on the time of day, etc.) spreads, for other systems - the mismatch with the real trade is due to other reasons, most likely, the quality of modelling does not necessarily relate to them. And it certainly can't be increased by testing on synthetics