How do you improve signal reliability by all five? - page 3
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You don't know. Perfectionism.
Here I have now for 3 days +20% to depo, with stops at 2% drawdown. (bragging). But I still want everything to be neat, green and without annoying warnings)You have exactly FS = 20/2 = 10, seemingly a very reliable signal, but no, because the trading time is too short and the results are likely to be random. Therefore, to avoid such cases of premature boasting, we should introduce the parameter signal lifetime into the notion of reliability: OR = PV * t/T, where t - signal lifetime in weeks, T - time, after expiration of which the randomness factor can be eliminated. You can take for example T=10 weeks. Then you get H = 20/2*0.6/10 = 0.6 - super-risky and not very reliable trading.
Reminds me:
))))))))))))
Until the first U-turn))))
Reminds me:
Going to live forever. As long as it's going well.
So far so good for 3*24*3600 = 259,200 seconds.
You guys are forgetting that the reliability score in signals is just a measure of reliability in relation to other signals. And even if nothing happens in some signal for a while - there will be no trades during this time - the reliability indicator will still change repeatedly for better or for worse during this time.
Don't you think there should be a methodology for unambiguous, numerical, reliability assessment?
So far so good for 3*24*3600 = 259,200 seconds.
Not comparable to yours, of course. But, I will fight for the top, be prepared)))
This is a complete misinterpretation of the reliability problem. If equity is low and drawdown is high, we will automatically have low FS. The main objective of trading is to gain profit and we should pay attention to this fact. FS shows the risk level at which the profit is obtained. At FS = 10 we judge that, the probability of profit or loss is 10/1, which is very good, and the TS is very reliable. At FS = 1 the probability of profit and loss are equal and the TS can be qualified as unreliable.
This is if the drawdown is high. And if the drawdown is low? If the Equity is high, even in the case of a large drawdown - the signal is more reliable than if the Equity is low and the drawdown is also low.
Here are two signals:
1. Equity of $500000, drawdown 40%.
2. Own Equity $50000, 1% drawdown
I believe that the first signal is much more reliable than the second one. Despite the fact that their drawdowns differ by more than one order of magnitude.
You guys forget that the reliability score in signals is just a measure of reliability in relation to other signals. And even if nothing happens in some signal for a while - no trades during this time - the reliability index will still change repeatedly for better or for worse during this time.
Exactly. And if you measure reliability by your own real Equity on the signal, everything falls into place. You don't have to look at anything but Equity. Because it is the Equity on the account (own, and real) that tells what the PROVIDER is thinking about his signal.
If you are 99.9% sure that the TS will give you a profit (say, you have very important insider information) - you will immediately put as much deposit as possible on this TS. But if you understand that your high recoveries on the signal - this is just a coincidence and accidents - then you, despite the high recoveries - will never keep high Equity on this TS, and will regularly withdraw profit.
Personally, I believe that you should not spend more than 1% of real Equity on a signal in a month on subscription. Therefore, with minimum subscription price of $30, the Equity in the signal should be no less than $3000. Regardless of any other indicators.Exactly. And if you measure reliability by your own real Equity on the signal, everything falls into place. You don't have to look at anything but Equity. Because it's the Equity on the account (own, and real) that tells you what the PROVIDER is thinking about his signal.
If you are 99.9% sure that the TS will give you a profit (say, you have very important insider information) - you will immediately put as much deposit on this TS as possible. But if you understand that your high recoveries on the signal - it is only the coincidence of circumstances and accidents - then you, despite the high recoveries - will never keep a large Equity on this TS, and will regularly withdraw profit.
Personally, I believe that you should not spend more than 1% of real Equity on a signal in a month on subscription. Therefore, with minimum subscription price of $30, the Equity in the signal should be no less than $3000. Regardless of any other indicators.you have it all upside down... You're saying that profits should not be withdrawn because withdrawal of profits would indicate the unreliability of the TS. What nonsense...
TS is created to produce profits and withdraw profits to cash. This is the task of any TS. And the extent to which TS copes with this task - is a measure of the TS efficiency.
Regularly withdrawing profits is an indicator of high efficiency and high reliability.
You've got it all upside down... You're saying you shouldn't take profits, because taking profits would indicate the unreliability of the TS. Such nonsense...
TS is created to produce profits and withdraw profits to cash. This is the task of any TS. And the extent to which TS copes with this task - is a measure of the TS efficiency.
Regular withdrawal of profit is an indicator of high efficiency and high reliability.
It all depends on the volume of withdrawals. If all the profits are withdrawn, that is not an "indicator of efficiency and reliability". It is an indication that provider is almost sure that his signal will be lost.
Profit must be withdrawn. But withdraw it wisely, first, when the TC has worked well. And not at every "sneeze". And secondly - not to withdraw all of the profit, but to leave an appreciable part of it for the deposit growth. Moreover, in some recommendations I read that it is recommended to withdraw either 10% of profit (when everything is OK), or the entire deposit (when trading is over).
The essence of my views does not change. It is the amount of real Equity on the account that is the main indicator of the reliability of the account, because it directly shows what the provider himself thinks of the signal. No other indicator will show you that.