Does the market need forecasting with more than 50% probability ? - page 7
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Again, if the percentage of winning positions is less than 50% the picture will be "2", so it seems to me
You don't have to try.) Clearly, the more the better. Better all 100).
It was important for me to show that with 40% one can stably operate, and with 25-30 one can break-even.
But now I am a bit confused, and do not really understand what is going on. It seems that the strategy has hit upon some stable market pattern that allows to more than compensate for the losses. And it is also clear that among the profitable trades there is a lot of rubbish that has nothing to do with this pattern. But, in principle, I have just started working with the strategy - only the first tests, so far everything is in its original form.
You don't have to try.) Clearly, the more the better. Better all 100).
It was important for me to show that with 40% you may work, and with 25-30 you may break-even.
But now I am a bit confused, and do not really understand what is going on. It seems that the strategy has hit upon some stable market pattern that allows to more than compensate for the losses. And it is also clear that among the profitable trades there is a lot of rubbish that has nothing to do with this pattern. But, in principle, I have just started working with the strategy - only the first tests, so far everything is in pristine form.
I can try to help. I promise little less than nothing, and then as it turns out.
I can try to help. I promise little less than nothing, and it's a matter of what happens.
So far, it's all just guesswork. We don't know what to look for, where to look, how to look, or if it's even there.) Nothing more than mind games. Every once in a while something turns up. With a 0.9 probability it's a waste of time.)
We don't care what you see through it. You should go to another forum, here they are trying to do trading).
If you have real results and not fairy-tale ones, then we'll talk.
Then try without making loud statements, and when you have real results and not fairy tale ones, then we'll talk
Well, chatterbox.)) The stream of consciousness hasn't dried up yet? Danila, master, show us a Stone Flower. No results of your own, but other people's results are a pain in the ass.)
Envy, however, is one of the deadly sins.)
Well, chatterbox.)) The stream of consciousness hasn't dried up yet? Danila, master, show us a Stone Flower. No results of your own, but other people's results keep you awake.)
Envy, however, is one of the deadly sins.)
i envy your stubbornness.)
How many people need to repeat it for you to get it through your head?
I envy your stubbornness :)
How many people have to repeat it before you get it?
Man, this chatterbox is already halfway through the thread. Start your own thread and write about nothing.)
If you open for everything every time, then you need a probability of predicting correctly 100.
Here's a quote from Rudyard Kipling. Yes, yes, the same one Mowgli wrote.
Know how to bet in joyful hope
At stake all that you've saved with difficulty.
And lose, and become a pauper as before
And never regret...
If you open for everything every time, then you need a probability of predicting correctly 100.
Here's a quote from Rudyard Kipling. Yeah, yeah, the one that Mowgli wrote.
That's wrong. I've always gambled on everything. That's what a deposit is for, not to lie dead weight, but to work. A buffer of 10-15% is enough.
Let's count in established terms. Suppose the expected max drawdown is -10%. We should have a deposit that provides entry into the transaction + max drawdown (10%). That is all, we do not need more. In principle, we can have an average drawdown, say - 5%. In case of force majeure (which is very unlikely) we deposit the missing 5%. It will not affect anything - just transferring money from one pocket to another.
We do not consider strategies with overshooting.
Let's assume that the max drawdown is 100 quid, and the average drawdown is 50 quid. Keep a deposit that provides entry + these 50 or 100 quid, as written above.
Gentlemen, the most important parameter that characterizes any TS, is the Recovery Factor (PV = ratio of net profit to maximum drawdown)! Its value should be higher than 3, and the more the better. It absolutely does not matter at what values of other parameters this result is obtained! It's time for everyone to understand, accept and recognize the primacy of FS over other factors. Any other factor should be considered in the light of improving PV. Otherwise, it's a waste of time and attention. A waste of time and attention.
How on your signals? )))