Does the market need forecasting with more than 50% probability ? - page 2
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In many threads you see the statement that in order to work in the market the probability of correct prediction must be, well, necessarily greater than 0.5 or >50%. I have always, in such cases, said that this is a myth.
This statement is a special case. In more general terms: in order to work in the market, the system must be profitable. How exactly - yes, there can be variations.
Trend systems are characterized by many small losses and rare but large profits. They have a guessing rate of less than 50%, yes.
But trend-following systems are usually of very poor quality. And real systems, in my experience, indicator of edge is percentage of profitable about 70...80%. Sometimes more, but you have to make sure that there is no overshoot.
In poker, the probability of winning is only 1/9 to 1/6. Learn how to play poker. You should at least start here - world poker club. You'll learn a lot.)
Cool, I never understood the cards...
This statement is a special case. In more general terms: the system must be profitable in order to work in the market. How exactly - yes, there may be variations.
Trend systems are characterized by many small losses and rare but large profits. They have a guessing rate of less than 50%, yes.
But trend-following systems are usually of very poor quality. And real systems, in my experience, indicator of edge is percentage of profitable about 70...80%. Sometimes even more, but you need to make sure that there is no overexposure.
I trade with my hands - 70-80% profitable, I trade with a robot - close to 100%.
I trade with my hands - 70-80% profitable, the robot trades - close to 100%.
Mine is the opposite. I trade 2 times better in profits with hands, but it's very tiring. Tired, and seldom hand traded lately, depending on my mood.
Maybe this is the answer to the prediction question. I would like to make a robot that will destroy a pending order (virtual lots). I open an order (just for fun), it goes into deficit, I set pending orders, I destroy it to zero.
I have the opposite. I trade twice as well with hands in terms of profit, but it's very tiring. Tired, and lately rarely use hands, depending on my mood.
I traded 2 days with hands, about 30% of deals were closed by robot, sometimes I put SL, sometimes I closed them myself. I saw a winning percentage, 80.65%, which is a lot, I was lucky with the market, the price was in the channel all the time
Maybe this is the answer to the prediction question. I would like to make a robot that will destroy a pending order (virtual lots). I open an order (just for fun), it goes in the red, I place the pending orders and I break it to zero.
Why have you faded graphs? Do you really think it would be interesting for someone? If they are glossed over, they have NULL informational value. Fucking secrets...
Maybe this is the answer to the prediction question. I would like to make a robot that will destroy a pending order (virtual lots). I open an order (just for fun), it goes into deficit, I place a pending order, I break it down to zero.
If something goes wrong in a deal, I simply close it without thinking and regret. Where the price will go next is of no interest to me. First I close, and then I think. Like cowboys - shoot first, think later).
If something goes wrong in a trade, I just close it without a second thought or regret. Where the price will go next is of no interest to me at all. We close first, and then we think. Like cowboys - first shoot, then think).
And I am not interested in where the price moves at opening and closing, and there is no goal to make money - to break.
You just asked if forecasting is necessary.Why are the graphs blacked out? Do you really think anyone is interested in it? It has NULL informational value when it's glossed over. Fucking secrets...
If you make such a bot, which will destroy not by direct averaging..... ))