Peak ruble in 2018! Yes ? or..... - page 2
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Sergey Vradiy: Not everything is that simple. For example Singapore. Public debt was 110.6% of GDP in 2017. And that figure is not exactly the latest for the world's economies.
As I recall Singapore has a large rare earth mine that will soon run out.
The ruble is not very profitable. I think it should be clear to everyone. Tiny Singapore has 30% more exports than the whole of Russia taking oil and gas into account. Do you need any more explanations? We have nothing to export, so the ruble hangs in the air. Demura predicts 125 rubles per dollar as early as this year. Has he ever been wrong, guys? If anyone is really a genius, it's Demura )))
Mikhail Bilan:
Sergey Vradiy: That's quite a statement.)
Probably bought a lot of dollars and now he doesn't know who to sell them to))
Isn't it clear that the rouble is holding on as long as oil is keeping it going, for better or worse. And it is still holding while Trump & campaigns are hedging for a precipitous and prolonged fall. As soon as Russia runs out of stash (which it has until the end of this year, with very severe austerity), they can start the "Who's the Boss" operation. I think oil will fall below 20 and stay there for two years. Then switching on the machine is inevitable and consequently hyperinflation with all its attendant consequences. We already went through this in the early 80s and late 90s. It's about time for a repeat of hara-kiri. And then there is Elon Musk with his solar panels, electric cars - gasoline engine killers and Falcons - Roscosmos killer. No fucking way! :))
It's not for nothing that Trump had a relatively recent meeting with business, at the end of which he told Ilon Musk:
As soon as the RF has used up all its reserves (and there are some left in very severe austerity until the end of this year), we can start Operation "Who's the Boss in the House". I think oil will drop below 20 and stay there for two years.
Probably got some dollars? Think of who to sell to...
As for your statement. In the Russian budget, oil is budgeted at $40 USD. Lately you know what it is trading at. So it is not eating the stash, but on the contrary, it is accumulating. Even if not all the difference goes into the piggy bank, but it is not a small amount.
5th grade maths =))
This is just a 100% buy signal for the dollar (euro, yen, franc, to taste) ))
Must have made some dollars, huh? Think of who to sell to...
As for your statement. Oil is budgeted at $40 USD. Lately you know what it is trading at. So it is not eating the stash, but on the contrary, it is accumulating. Even if not all the difference goes into the piggy bank, but these are not small sums.
Grade 5 maths =))
Yes, of course, you're right. For a couple of months a ruble will last longer.
Well maybe a month, as previously profitable sectors suddenly started asking for money more often, Chubais, for example, asked for a yard or Roskosmos is increasingly short of money.
I will not even breathe a word about the bottomless barrels: defence, Syria, Chechnya and the Crimea. :))