From theory to practice - page 490
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Ah, sorry. I read it wrong.
Haste is needed when catching fleas.
The London session has its own handwriting, and the American session has its own. Every session has its own handwriting. It is impossible to predict the change of handwriting or their interference by history.
Besides, trading sessions are present not in their pure form, but as a superposition.
Nevertheless, several intervals can be distinguished in the course of a day in which the market behavior has peculiarities specific to that interval.
When moving to another interval, we should switch to its characteristic features.
Time borders of such intervals are forecasted quite clearly.
It is impossible to predict the reaction to economic sporadic news by history. It is impossible to predict from history the relations between countries and their currencies. It is impossible to predict from history the decision of ECB to buy or sell its currency. It is impossible to predict the Bank of Japan's decision to intervene in its currency from history. Those who make a major decision do not take much account of history.
Many (not all of them) "sporadic" events are quite predictable. Even if it is impossible to predict their impact, one may consider the fact that they will introduce significant perturbations.
Respectively, as in any other case with an unpredictable market - if we cannot make a forecast, we simply stop trading.
If the classical "white noise" is continuous in time and reversible and multifrequent, the "white noise" in Forex market is discrete, full of diverse sporadic events. The classical "white noise" of the mathematical-physical movement of prices is combined with the sporadic "white noise" of the chronological movement of the "monkey with a grenade". The skills of a tennis player in small tennis are more appropriate here.
All absolutely right! But if we analyze only time intervals, on which "white noise" is the whitest with a reasonable probability, we can still obtain statistical characteristics suitable for trading.
Unfortunately, TS and other physicists-mathematicians don't want to see it. They are looking for a universal grail for all times (and some for all scales). But it seems that it is important not only what to look for, but also where to look for it.
London session has its own handwriting, the American one has its own handwriting. Each session has its own handwriting. It is impossible to predict the change of handwriting or their interference by history. It is impossible to predict the reaction to sporadic economic news from history. It is impossible to predict from history the relations between nations and their currencies. It is impossible to predict, for example, the ECB's decision to make a major purchase or sale of its currency from history. It is impossible to predict the Bank of Japan's decision to intervene in its currency from history. Those making a major decision don't take much account of history. While classic "white noise" is continuous in time and reversible and multi-frequency, the "white noise" in Forex is discrete, full of heterogeneous sporadic events. The classical "white noise" of the mathematical-physical movement of prices is combined with the sporadic "white noise" of the chronological movement of the "monkey with a grenade". The skills of a tennis player in small tennis are more appropriate here.
And in general:
Market inefficiencies are very subtle, they are negligible impurities in a huge data set. If we aim to extract them, this data must be repeatedly sifted through a multitude of effective sieves and filters, and only then subjected to subtle statanalysis.
If we stick raw data into the analyzer, the stochastics will bog down the statistics. For sporadic events and planned events, but with an unpredictable outcome (many news for example) usually have a much greater influence on the market than the everyday trading even of the major players.
Profits to all!
Similarly, neither the ACF, nor Hurst, nor any other function or coefficient guarantees anything -- and that's 100%.
The market is not static. it is dynamic. It's a multi-frequency process. But you don't realise it yet.
1) No, the market is just statistics, not dynamics. 2) You can see statistics as a result of statistics.
1) This is the first misconception.
2) This is the second misconception.
And the bottom line is that you have no dynamics. Neither are there any statics. Just as there are no reliable statistics.
Well, cartoon-not cartoon (as I promised Koldun), but just watch the static histogram set of the wave packet of 1440 incremental values (days) as it "walks" during the week. This is on the AUDCAD pair for the past week:
M-yes......
Time to get a leg up on forex.
Well, cartoon-not cartoon (as I promised Koldun), but just watch the static histogram set of the wave packet of 1440 incremental values (days) as it "walks" during the week. This is on the AUDCAD pair for the past week:
M-yes......
It's time to get your feet off forex.
Just because you can't do it yet doesn't mean it's not possible.
Just because you can't do it yet doesn't mean it can't be done.
You see how much effort and energy a person puts in, so give him a hint, guide him.
Alexander_K2:
Yep......
It's time to get out of forex.
I have no idea what to do with it... If you do not know what to do with it, you may start to earn some money on it...
For example, start to calculate the market states in order, as suggested above, and then there will be some chances...