From theory to practice - page 266
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If there is movement, there will be news to explain it. (c)
Unfortunately this statement isnot mine.
And further from me about the grail -the real grail... Gentlemen, let us all pray that it may never be found!
What is the real grail? It is a calculation tool (formula) that allows us to calculate a fair price at any time and correctly. Once this formula is found,the stock exchanges will close and the shops will remain. People and countries will continue to exchange goods, but at calculated fair prices. And the exchanges, the bids, the tumblers, the bulls and bears, the buyers and sellers arguing - all this beautiful human bacchanalia will become unnecessary! After all, the price, a fair price, will be easy to calculate!!! And there will be nowhere to trade.....
Let people look for the grail, each in their own way and each with the mighty conviction that they can only do it his way. But let them never find the real grail. May trading be with us! For ever and ever =)))
Yes the formula is known, but what of it?
A fair price is the ratio of supply to demand.
But in Forex there is no volume.
Even if the volumes were known, the fair price could be passed through twice: from top to bottom and from bottom to top.
On the plus side this is forex and it's not for nothing that A_K talks about going back to the mean. I.e. the Doll's divorce also affects the fair price, i.e. there is an unfair deviation from this price, otherwise there would be no studs, which everyone adores.... But at the same time the volumes change too. That is, a hairpin rush may not end and turn out to be a trend, or the price may return. Therefore there is no signal from ticks and it is not possible to get a signal from them.
Buy when "price"=1 sell "price"=42 and vice versa. There will not be a single losing trade.
This is a process with memory, it "remembers" that its range is limited to 1 and 42, and it does not produce numbers outside this range. Moreover, it is a stationary process.
You've gone a bit overboard here, about "you can't make money". I respect mathematically savvy citizens, but sometimes they get so caught up in their abstractions... That ouch :) Doesn't beat reality, you have to do something about this "definition" [Or is it all the worse for reality? :)))]
Here's a "slice" of a very forgettable process for you. The balls in the lottotron fall out, from 1 to 42. Naturally, each next ball doesn't remember what was there before it. So here's a simple "system" that will not just allow you to make money on this nameless "process" and even the grail. Buy when "price"=1 sell "price"=42 and vice versa. There will not be a single losing deal. Although what will fall out the next ball "calculate" can not, it does not depend on the previous "move".
But thank God, we do not need it, if our purpose is to make profit.We only need to know "1" and "42" and just wait till they fall. That's it. There will be no losses, not a single tick against the position :)
I can try to guess so much, bring in neural networks with wavelets and theoretically, martingale with martingales and God knows what, trying to guess balls and make profit at every "move".
P.S.
In the market the same thing, but it's a bit more complicated because of multidimensionality/fractality. I have no idea where the price will go either in a tick, or in an hour, or in a day. I do not want to know it for a long time, I do not need it. I cannot make 50/50 spreads better, no matter how hard I try, and the hell with it. I don't need it at all. I know something about markets, the analogue of "1" and "42" from the example above, I'm not trying to earn and calculate every "sneeze" and "move" .I don't care how the price "wiggles" between those two points, the puppeteers are fiddling or whatever. It doesn't matter. You just have to wait, the "process" will not pass them by.
Well... I'm pretty sure I agree. It's the right way.
I've highlighted what I think are particularly good thoughts
Let's not give up hope that when the money bags are sewn, maybe the author will get his hands on the article.
As for the idea of trading the trend with this system, I do not really understand how to choose the entry point and how to determine the exit target?
Do you, Maxim, have any idea how to calculate this from the diffusion of a transformed series?
No, I don't, because I haven't even seen it.
But there is no volume in forex.
I.e. the Doll's bribery also affects the fair price, i.e. there is an unfair deviation from this price, otherwise there wouldn't be the studs that everyone loves....
1. Forex is not a market at all.
2. There is no such thing as a dollop. Just kidding, up and down for your own blood money. No money is enough.) Or go get stops - so go and try to make a profit.) Except for losses - just look at tumblers and bands, and you will understand everything.
3. By the way, look at identical instruments in different markets - the quotes are 1:1.
1. Forex is not a market at all.
2. There is no such thing as puppets. It's a joke to go up and down for your own blood money. No money is enough.) Or go get stops - so go and try to make a profit.) Except for losses - just look at tumblers and bands, and you will understand everything.
3. By the way, look at identical instruments in different markets - the quotes are 1:1.
By the way, if it is not the market, then the volumes are different not from the market, but from the forex.
What does the glass have to do with it, in forex there are two inseparable concepts - over-risk and over-withdrawal.
As for the stops - remove the condition - if the profit is greater than zero, then cover, work exclusively on the signal and the ahting will begin.1.Different - which ones, and by the way, since it's not the market, the volumes are not from the market, but from the forex.
2. The main thing in forex is the over-risk and over-discharges.
1.Forex volumes are tick volumes, just the number of price changes per unit time. This is not volumes at all). I do not need to explain.
Forex quotes are taken mainly from the real market. Mostly does not mean always, because the law quotes the instrument directly from the dealer.
2. I used to do pretty good on forex using my hands (since March 23, actually since March 15 my brokerage company stopped serving RF). So I did not plum at all. The other question is that I failed to pick up my strategies. But I don't plan to go back to forex yet.
3. By the way, look at identical instruments on different markets - the quotes are 1:1.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) at forex dealers and crypto exchanges are completely different. They have gaps from somewhere, and spreads are huge, and candles do not match, and the volumes are wrong.
I would venture to guess that the eurusd of the real exchanges is just as different from what the dealing desk gives us.
1.Forex volumes are tick volumes, just the number of price changes per unit of time. I don't have to explain it to you.
Forex quotes are mostly taken from the real market. Mostly does not mean always, because the law quotes the instrument directly from the dealer.
2. I used to do pretty good on forex using my hands (since March 23, actually since March 15 my brokerage company stopped serving RF). So I did not plum at all. The other question is that I failed to pick up my strategies. But I don't plan to go back to forex yet.
Look at ClusterDelta indicators, and you will have basic forex volumes.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on forex dealers and crypto exchanges are completely different. The gaps at the dealing desk are coming from somewhere, and the spreads are huge, and the candles do not match, and the volumes are wrong.
I dare say that the eurusd of real exchanges is also different from what the dealing desk gives us.
Because the crypto market is decentralized, and each exchange has its own prices and volumes