From theory to practice - page 161

 
СанСаныч Фоменко:


My conclusion:

It's a hollow exercise to predict a trend change.

I agree. I would even say any prediction is an empty exercise.

You have to play solely on statistics. We find statistically suitable moments for deals and open at those moments. If it goes where it should - good, we wait. If it does not go where it is supposed to go - we close it. And no thinking - trend, flat, etc. As one of my acquaintances said, when asked why she did it this way and not that way, the main thing is not to think about it.

 
Alexander Sevastyanov:

No one is immune to losing trades. Losses are part of the trading business. Unfortunately, black swans (see Nasim Taleb) are much more common than one would like.

Perhaps the only way to limit losses is to set a stop loss. But not the fact that with it the TS will be profitable.

Yes, however unfortunate it is, I cannot explain this failure. Neither from a scientific, nor from near-scientific point of view.

We should - yes, we should put a stop loss. I can't think of anything else.

 

160 pages of bragging, and at the first problem - "ticking")

Nope, you forgot to bolt on the Schrödinger, Lindblad, and Heisenberg equations) wait for it)

 
Alexander_K2:

Yes, sad as it is, I can't explain this failure. Not scientifically, not scientifically, not from any point of view.

I think the graph shows everything and there is nothing to explain.
 
bas:

160 pages of bragging, and at the first problem - "ticking")

Nope, you forgot to bolt on the Schrödinger, Lindblad, and Heisenberg equations) wait for it)

He exclusively uses Feyman's lectures for students. and he has some student's distribution.
 
Alexander_K2: I can't explain this failure. Not from a scientific or near-scientific point of view - not from any point of view.

I guess the market works a little differently than you might think.)

"Customisation" is not scientific. The scientific approach is to study the real workings of things, not to mindlessly draw formulas from an entirely different field (=creating fictions), however contrived those formulas may be.

 
Yuriy Asaulenko:
To me, the graph shows everything, and there is nothing to explain.
However! Hmmm... I'll have another look.
 
bas:

160 pages of bragging, and at the first problem - "ticking")

No, you forgot to add Schrödinger, Lindblad, and Heisenberg equations) wait for it)


No, no equations can explain this kind of failure - tested.

 
Alexander_K2:

Yes, sad as it is, I can't explain this failure. Not scientifically, not scientifically, not from any point of view.

You have to - yes, you have to put a stop loss. It is impossible to think of anything else.


Can you explain everything scientifically? Here's the economy as a whole, which was basically in line with the weakening of the dollar after his election. The market reacted instantly to his words and the dollar fell 1,000-2,000 5-digit points against other currencies trending with no discernible correction. In the evening Trump clarified that his words were misunderstood and the dollar reversed within an hour or two.

Without stop-losses there is no way out otherwise you can lose your deposit.

Trump Team at Davos Backs Weaker Dollar, Sharpens Trade War Talk
Trump Team at Davos Backs Weaker Dollar, Sharpens Trade War Talk
  • 2018.01.24
  • More stories by Jan Dahinten
  • www.bloomberg.com
President Donald Trump’s top economic advisers set the stage for the rollout of his "America First" manifesto on the world stage.
 
It's not a failure, it's a common trend that happens in the market almost every week)